Noto's NFL DFS Key Personnel: Week 18

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2026-01-03 01:08:26 Premium Content Part of the product NFL DFS

A daily fantasy sports OG, Notorious has been roaming the DFS streets ever since they were invented. So, who better to walk you through all of the key NFL DFS positions each week? Noto has racked up multiple live final seats and several six-figure tournament wins in his DFS career, and he will mix it up in all different types of contests. In his Key Personnel article for Week 18, he will walk you through his favorite NFL DFS picks, ways to pivot away from the chalk, and overall strategy for the upcoming featured slate.

Welcome back to the final regular season edition of the Key Personnel. Don’t worry, we’ll be back for the playoffs.

Week 17 wasn’t the best for yours truly, but this has still been my best NFL DFS season in the last 10 years. I largely give credit to writing this article, as it makes me do more research than I likely would if I didn’t have the opportunity to write it. I also give credit to the amazing projections team here at RotoGrinders.

It’s sad that we are at the final week of the regular season, but we still have playoff football to look forward to. For our retired athlete theme in Week 18, we are rolling with Johnny Damon. He wore #18 during his championship runs with the Yankees and Red Sox. There are a couple of quotes of his that really stood out to me:

“Baseball is a game of failure. You learn more from the outs than the hits.”

“I love the game too much to ever take a day for granted.”

The first one really hits home and relates well to DFS. We can learn more from our losses than our wins. Far too often, we want to forget about our bad slates and focus on the next one, but learning from our roster construction and player pool mistakes can help us become better DFS players.

Editor’s Note: Looking for more places to play? Check out our Underdog promo code and PrizePicks promo code, two of the best DFS sites available today.

NFL DFS Top Picks & Plays: Noto’s Key Personnel for Week 18

Week 18 is more of an information slate than anything. We have to know which teams have something to play for, which teams are resting players, and which teams are taking a look at their younger players rather than their veterans. There are certainly edges to be had if you keep up with all of the information and injury news this week (there is and will be a ton of it). This is also a very fluid slate in that plays that look good on Friday might not look as good on Sunday. As always, you can keep up to date with my Expert Play tags updated in our NFL DFS optimizer, LineupHQ.

Top Quarterback Plays

Tier 1 – Core Plays

The Jaguars have everything to play for in Week 18. With a win, they lock up the AFC South title. If they win and both the Patriots and Broncos lose, they would secure the top seed in the AFC and a first-round bye. Trevor Lawrence ($6,400 DK / $8,200 FD) is going to be popular, but the combination of motivation and a strong projection is too good to pass up on this slate. He’s playing his best football of the season, topping 20 fantasy points in 5 of his last 6 games. He draws an elite matchup against the Titans, who are 28th in EPA allowed per dropback.

The Browns don’t have anything to play for, but Shedeur Sanders ($4,900 DK / $6,600 FD) is essentially giving his audition to be next year’s starting quarterback. He’s looked decent in his starts this season, especially when you factor in the matchups and the weather in those games. He has his best matchup to date, as the Bengals are 29th in EPA allowed per dropback and 27th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. He pairs nicely with Jerry Jeudy, as it looks like the Browns could be without some of their top wideouts.

Tier 2 – Strong Plays

If the Bears win on Sunday, they will lock up the 2nd seed in the NFC. This is important, as it would give them home games in the first 2 weeks of the playoffs. Caleb Williams ($5,900 DK / $7,800 FD) has gotten better and better as the season has progressed. He’s dealt with pressure much better and has thrown for multiple touchdowns in 5 of his last 6 games. With Rome Odunze potentially out again, his target tree could be condensed, which is always a good thing for stacking. He draws a home matchup against the Lions, who have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.

The Texans have locked up a playoff spot, but they still have plenty of motivation in Week 18. If they win and the Jaguars lose, they will win the AFC South. CJ Stroud ($5,400 DK / $7,300 FD) has underwhelmed from a fantasy standpoint this season, but he’s cheap and draws a nice matchup against the Colts, who have really struggled defensively over the last few weeks, giving up big fantasy outings to Lawrence and Brock Purdy.

Tier 3 – Sprinkle Plays

Bo Nix ($6,200 DK / $7,200 FD) and the Broncos have a ton to play for, as they can lock up the top seed in the AFC with a win and a Patriots loss. That seems unlikely to happen, but you never know how divisional games are going to play out. The Chargers are playing for seeding, but I could see them resting or limiting their key players on both sides of the ball. In other words, I don’t think Nix’s matchup is going to be nearly as tough as it looks on paper. Nix offers rushing upside and has scored over 20 fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 games.

Tyler Shough ($5,300 DK / $7,600 FD) has a chance to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award with a strong finish to the season, so I expect the Saints to go all out in this one. If you haven’t looked at his game log, he has been extremely productive down the stretch of the season. He has scored 25, 20, 18, 22, and 19 fantasy points over his last 5 games. Chris Olave being out isn’t great for Shough, but it does narrow his target tree. He has a decent matchup indoors against the Falcons in what could be a sneaky high-scoring affair.

🏈 Quarterbacks – Noto’s Notes

🏆 Core Plays: Trevor Lawrence, Shedeur Sanders
💪 Strong Plays: Caleb Williams, CJ Stroud
🌧️ Sprinkle Plays: Bo Nix, Tyler Shough
% Ownership Angle: T-Law should be the only chalky QB
🔗 Potential Pairings: Lawrence + Meyers or Strange, Williams + Burden
❤️‍🩹 Injuries to Monitor: Josh Allen (Q)

Top Running Back Plays

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