Noto's NFL DFS Key Personnel: Week 4

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2025-09-27 14:49:23 Premium Content Part of the product NFL DFS

A daily fantasy sports OG, Notorious has been roaming the DFS streets ever since they were invented. So, who better to walk you through all of the key NFL DFS positions each week? Noto has racked up multiple live final seats and several six-figure tournament wins in his DFS career, and he will mix it up in all different types of contests. In his Key Personnel article for Week 4, he will walk you through his favorite NFL DFS picks, ways to pivot away from the chalk, and overall strategy for the upcoming featured slate.

Week 3 was one of those slates where if you didn’t make money, you probably strayed too far from the good plays. The chalk went nuclear, and seemingly half the defenses scored at least one touchdown. I managed to cash in all four of my lineups, but I didn’t have any huge wins, which is the DFS equivalent of eating a nice dinner and realizing you’re still hungry. We’ll take the wins, though — as profitable weeks are never to be taken for granted in NFL DFS.

The core plays from this article crushed last week, so let’s try to carry some of that momentum into Week 4. As always, thanks for reading. Let’s dive into the slate!

NFL DFS Top Picks & Plays: Noto’s Key Personnel for Week 4

I love the way this week’s slate is shaping up. I’m always a fan of slates where my favorite plays aren’t at the top of every projection model. It’s easier to be unique without forcing in lower-owned options when your favorite plays aren’t extremely chalky to begin with. We have quite a few injuries to monitor leading up to lock on Sunday, so I will keep the injury section of each position up to date. I will also update my Consensus Value Rankings and Expert Play tags in our NFL DFS optimizer.

Top Quarterback Plays

We don’t have the standout minimum-priced quarterbacks that we have had the last couple of weeks in Mac Jones, Marcus Mariota, and Carson Wentz, but that doesn’t mean we don’t have plenty of choices. Unlike the first few weeks, there are a lot of elite quarterbacks on the slate: Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes are all available.

Tier 1 – Core Plays

If you can find the cap space this week, Lamar Jackson ($7,500 DK / $8,700 FD) is a tremendous starting point for lineups. He has topped 26 fantasy points in all 3 games so far this season, and he’s yet to have a ceiling game on the ground. He has quietly become one of the best passers in the league. His completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) is the best in the league, and he has the highest average depth of target (aDOT) in the league. He’s already thrown for 9 touchdowns. He’s been a cheat code in DFS for years, and he’s still too cheap heading into Week 4. He also has a strong record against the Chiefs, scoring 29 and 37 fantasy points in his last two meetings with Patrick Mahomes.

My favorite mid-range option is Caleb Williams ($5,800 DK / $7,500 FD), who came through for us in a big way last week. In fact, he was the quarterback with the 2nd-highest of the week. He threw for 3 touchdowns against the Cowboys and has had at least 5 rushing attempts in every game so far this season. The rushing upside gives him a solid floor, while the passing upside helps give him a high ceiling. He’s been excellent when given time in the pocket, and he should have plenty of it this week against the Raiders. It’s early in the season, but Las Vegas has a middling 33% pressure rate and is 26th in PFF’s pass rush grades. Williams is always a fun click in DFS because he has obvious stacking candidates.

Tier 2 – Strong Plays

Justin Herbert ($6,300 DK / $7,900 FD) is finally getting the recognition that he deserves. The incredible throws that have been making their rounds in highlight clips on social media are throws that he has made his entire career. The difference is that the Chargers are 3-0, so everyone is paying attention now. We thought this would be a run-heavy offense, but that has not been the case. The Chargers are 1st in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) this season. Herbert has averaged 33 pass attempts and 6 rush attempts per game, which are very encouraging numbers for DFS. This week, he faces the Giants, who are 21st or worse in PFF’s grades against the pass, EPA allowed per dropback, and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season.

I was looking through the player props last week and did a double take when I saw that Jalen Hurts ($6,700 DK / $8,500 FD) had the 2nd-lowest passing yard prop of any quarterback. This had more to do with the high run rate for the Eagles than anything else. Philadelphia fell behind early in that game, which led to 32 pass attempts and 9 rush attempts for Hurts. He had one of the best performances of any quarterback in Week 3, as he put up over 30 fantasy points. I love the spot for him this week, as he faces the pass-funnel Buccaneers. In each of the last two seasons, Tampa Bay has been top 5 against the run and below the league average against the pass.

Call me crazy, but it doesn’t feel like Drake Maye ($5,500 DK / $7,100 FD) has played a good game this season, yet he has still averaged over 20 fantasy points. This isn’t a knock on Maye. If anything, I’m saying he has yet to hit his ceiling, and he’s still been one of the most productive quarterbacks in fantasy football. This week, the Patriots host the Panthers and come into the game with a healthy team total of 24.5 points. The concerns are that we need some sort of pushback from the Panthers and that Maye isn’t the easiest quarterback to build stacks with. However, I’m certainly fine rolling out a solo Maye in cash games or even tournaments.

Tier 3 – Sprinkle Plays

Josh Allen ($7,700 DK / $9,000 FD) is going to pop in all of the projection models this week because the Bills have a massive team total of 32.5 points. If Buffalo’s touchdowns come through the air, Allen will certainly have a big fantasy outing. I was watching the Week 4 Pick Six show, and they noted that the Bills have been double-digit favorites 11 times in Allen’s career. In those weeks, Allen has only been a top-6 quarterback twice. He has averaged 20 fantasy points in those outings, but the ceiling hasn’t exactly been there. For Allen to have a true ceiling game, he’s going to need some pushback from the Saints, who are 0-3 on the season while averaging only 16 points per game.

It seems backwards, but Patrick Mahomes ($6,000 DK / $7,800 FD) becomes a much better fantasy quarterback when the Chiefs aren’t an elite football team. Their defense hasn’t been as stout this season, and the offense has really struggled to run the ball. This has led to the Chiefs having the 2nd-highest PROE of any team in the NFL. After only topping 20 fantasy points a handful of times over the last two seasons, Mahomes has already hit that mark twice this season. After going 1-2 in their first 3 games, this week’s matchup against the Ravens is critical for both teams. I expect a ton of dropbacks for Mahomes against a team that has allowed the 5th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.

Brock Purdy ($6,100 DK / $6,600 FD) and Mac Jones are both on the injury report this week. Purdy has missed the last 2 games with an injury, and Jones has filled in admirably. Whoever gets the nod on Sunday is worth a look in tournaments. The Niners are still without key pieces in the passing game, but they draw one of the best possible matchups. The Jaguars have struggled to get pressure on the quarterback and have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to the position despite facing the likes of Bryce Young, Jake Browning, and C.J. Stroud in their first 3 games.

🏈 Quarterbacks – Noto’s Notes

🏆 Core Plays: Justin Herbert, Caleb Williams
💪 Strong Plays: Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Drake Maye
🌧️ Drizzle Plays: Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy
% Ownership Angle: No QB is projecting for more than 10% ownership
🔗 Potential Pairings: Jackson + Flowers, Williams + Odunze, Herbert + Allen
❤️‍🩹 Key Injuries: Jayden Daniels (Q), Brock Purdy (Q), Mac Jones (Q)

Top Running Back Plays

Want to read more? Sign up for NFL Premium!

-

-

-