Noto's NFL DFS Key Personnel: Week 7
A daily fantasy sports OG, Notorious has been roaming the DFS streets ever since they were invented. So, who better to walk you through all of the key NFL DFS positions each week? Noto has racked up multiple live final seats and several six-figure tournament wins in his DFS career, and he will mix it up in all different types of contests. In his Key Personnel article, he will walk you through his favorite NFL DFS picks, ways to pivot away from the chalk, and overall strategy for the upcoming slate.
It turns out that not loading up on the Cleveland Browns in DFS is good for the bankroll and my mental health. Week 6 was easily my best of the season, and I’m hoping to carry some of that momentum into Week 7. While it’s sad to think 6 weeks are already in the books, we still have 12 more weeks (including this one) with a full slate of games.
Last week we said cheers to a profitable Week 6. Let’s bring on a big Week 7.
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NFL DFS Top Picks & Plays: Noto’s Key Personnel for Week 7
There are still injuries we need to monitor leading up to lock, but it doesn’t look like we will have much value on the slate. When the pricing is tough, lineups don’t look nearly as good. I’ve always been a fan of tight pricing, so I’m excited about this week’s prospects. Let’s get into the positional breakdown.
If you ever have any questions, feel free to DM me on Twitter or in the RotoGrinders Discord. Always remember that you can depend on the NFL optimizer here at RotoGrinders to guide you as you build your lineups.
Quarterback
EXPERT PLAY TAGS
Jayden Daniels: $7,600 DK / $9,100 FD
Geno Smith: $5,800 DK / $7,600 FD
If spending up at quarterback, my favorite target (like most of the field) is Jayden Daniels. He has scored at least 20 fantasy points in each of the last 4 games. He’s 1st among all quarterbacks in total EPA and has averaged 42 rushing yards per game. He draws an elite matchup against the Panthers, who are 30th in EPA against the pass. The Commanders have the highest team total of any team in Week 7, which is something I didn’t have on my NFL bingo card for the season. Some will worry about the game script for Daniels, but I’m banking on the Panthers providing some pushback in this one. And even if the Commanders build a lead, I still expect Daniels to be heavily involved.
On a point-per-dollar basis, Geno Smith is my favorite play at any position this week. The Seahawks are 1st in both pass rate (71%) and pass rate above expectation (+5.3%). It’s important to look at the latter because it takes into account game script. It doesn’t matter if the Seahawks are ahead or behind- they want to throw the ball under new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. Smith has averaged 20 fantasy points per game this season and has some serious positive touchdown regression coming his way. He has averaged 1 touchdown per 42 pass attempts, which is 31st among 34 eligible quarterbacks this season. He draws a favorable matchup indoors against the Falcons, who are 21st in EPA against the pass.
BEST OF THE REST
As I always note, I tend to build 3-5 lineups per site each week. I generally keep my player pool small at quarterback. There are 4 more quarterbacks that I am considering in Week 7. The first is Sam Darnold, who draws a home matchup against the Lions, who are without Aidan Hutchinson. When not under pressure, Darnold has been an elite quarterback this season. He has plenty of weapons at his disposal, and the Vikings enter this week with the 3rd-highest team total on the board. If building a game stack, I prefer Darnold over Jared Goff at quarterback.
Daniel Jones is firmly in play this week in a home matchup against the Eagles. Malik Nabers has cleared concussion protocol, which means Jones will have his star receiver back in the lineup for the first time since Week 4. Jones has rushed for at least 30 yards in 3 of his last 4 games and squares off against a defense that is 26th in EPA against the pass. It never feels great clicking his name, but he’s a strong point-per-dollar option on a week with tight pricing.
If you don’t trust Geno Smith or want to be different without sacrificing much floor, Andy Dalton deserves consideration against the Commanders. As noted above, Washington has the highest team total on the board this week. The Panthers are 7.5-point underdogs and are facing a defense that is 28th in EPA against the pass and 22nd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Dalton has topped 16 fantasy points in 3 of his last 4 games and could drop back to pass 40+ times in this one.
My large-field tournament play of the week is Tyler Huntley. It’s been an ugly few weeks for the Dolphins since Tua Tagovailoa suffered another concussion. They were hopeful Huntley could come in and save the season, but that’s a lot to ask of a player who wasn’t even on the roster until Week 4. We know he offers rushing upside and should be more acclimated to the offense after Miami’s bye in Week 6. I expect Mike McDaniel to have some tricks up his sleeve for this week’s game against the Colts, who have allowed the 3rd-most yards per game to opponents this season.
Running Back
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