Sonty's NFL DFS Single-Entry Strategy: Week 14
Single entry is a different type of game from cash games, as they’re tournaments with top-down payout structures. And they are also different from mass multi-entry tournaments in that we’re only able to fire a single bullet. Yet the common flaw is that a large chunk of the field puts cash-style lineups into single-entry spaces (not enough correlation or leverage), or the field will over-leverage for the size of that specific single-entry contest.
Whether or not we build a chalky lineup or a contrarian lineup is a flawed approach. We wanna maximize the projection in our lineup without absorbing too much ownership. So we’ll have higher-owned players, and we’ll have lower-owned players. The key is that we’re making good plays while differentiating from the field.
In this space, we’ll take a look at the higher-projected plays and discuss how to use these chess pieces to maximize ROI using projection with correlation and leverage. The most important dynamic we see at play is that the chalk absorbs far more ownership than in MME contests from the middle tiers of pOWN%.
First, we’ll look at stacks; then we’ll go position by position.
NFL DFS Picks: Sonty’s Single-Entry Strategy for Week 14
STACKS
PROJECTION — 49ers vs. Seahawks and Bears vs. Lions
The 49ers are the team of the week. They have the highest implied total on the slate (30.00) and a mountain of talent to roster. Between Brock Purdy getting priced up a bit on both sites and the abundance of talent in Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle, they might go underowned as a stack.
Aiyuk will be owned most with Purdy, but Purdy-Samuel and Purdy-Kittle could be 5% or lower.
The field is going to heavily gravitate toward Christian McCaffrey because of the 13.5-point spread and his monstrous projection, giving us a lot of breathing room to stack up a passing attack with capped ownership.
I wanted to get frisky with the Bears, but I’m hesitant to roster a ~25% Justin Fields with a ~20% DJ Moore. They’re slight dogs – which is good for us – but their total is only 20.00.
That said, Fields has run 30 times over the last two weeks, and Moore has seen 22 targets over that stretch since Fields returned from injury, which is why they stuck out to me most when looking at the slate. I just can’t see myself honestly absorbing that much ownership to roster them over the 49ers.
But you’re totally allowed to plant your flag in the Bears’ ultra-concentrated offense given the dynamic talent of Fields-Moore.
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