NFL DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections: Week 1 Notes & Advice
Player ownership is a divisive topic in the NFL DFS streets. Some advocate for simply playing the best plays, regardless of how popular those plays may line up with the rest of the field. If you tie yourself into knots trying to predict how your opponents will play, you may run the risk of building a portfolio of suboptimal lineups that don’t give you a realistic chance of finishing in first place.
There’s a middle ground, of course. Without accurate DFS ownership projections, your build could easily wind up being far too chalky to actually pass enough of your opponents to reach those top payout positions. Knowing how to use ownership information to your advantage is the key to being a profitable player. With so much anticipation ahead of Week 1, we typically see significant ownership congregation around those that are perceived as the most obvious plays.
Our RotoGrinders NFL DFS premium projections are the best in the industry, and that applies to our ownership projections, too.
Below, you’ll find a rundown of some of the most popular plays heading into the first week of the 2023 season, per our up-to-the-minute DraftKings ownership projections.
NFL DFS Week 1 DraftKings Ownership Projections
- Jamaal Williams ($5,100) – 24.55% pOWN
- Tyreek Hill ($8,200) – 18.16% pOWN
- Christian McCaffrey ($8,700) – 17.42% pOWN
- Luke Musgrave ($2,900) – 17.25% pOWN
- Christian Kirk ($5,600) – 16.57% pOWN
Week 1 NFL DFS ownership projections for DraftKings are accurate at the time of publication and subject to change. Sign up for RG Premium to get updated ownership projections all the way to kickoff.
DraftKings Ownership Notes
Jamaal Williams Chalk Week
Jamaal Williams Chalk Week has arrived, and it’s easy to explain. Alvin Kamara will serve the first game of his league-mandated suspension this week, which leaves the Saints without their most prolific offensive player. Jamaal Williams – who inked a three-year deal to come to NOLA this offseason – will presumably handle a heavy workload with Kamara sidelined for the first few weeks of the new campaign.
Williams was a fantasy dynamo last season in Detroit, as he topped 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his career on his way to a league-high 17 rushing touchdowns. The chief threat to Williams’ workload this week – Kendre Miller – is likely to be limited as he deals with some injuries. The Saints’ passing attack should be a bit more lethal this season with Derek Carr here and Michael Thomas back from injury, but it’s fair to expect Williams to be heavily involved in his team debut.
At only $5,100, Williams is just far too cheap for a running back projected to play a significant role. The opposing Titans did lead the NFL in DVOA vs. the run a season ago, so it’s not like this matchup is without risk. If Williams struggles to get much going on the ground and fails to reach the end zone, there’s certainly a path to him ultimately underwhelming as the value running back of the week.
Tyreek Hill Headlines MIA-LAC Shootout
From a game-stacking standpoint, the Dolphins-Chargers contest looks like the most appealing of Week 1. These were two of the most potent offenses in football a season ago, and they’ll go toe-to-toe in the pseudo-indoor confines of SoFi Stadium to kick off the new season. This is the only game of the Sunday slate with an over/under north of 50 – 50.5, to be exact – and it’s easy to see why.
The visiting Dolphins have a 23.75 implied team total in this game, which is the highest of any underdog. The Chargers were far more susceptible defensively against the run (29th in DVOA) than they were against the pass (10th) last season, though the full-strength Dolphins should be among the most dangerous passing attacks in the league. In his first year in South Beach last season, Hill reeled in 119 passes on 170 targets with 7 touchdowns. Justin Jefferson and Davante Adams were the only pass-catchers in football to attract more targets than Hill in ’22.
Tyreek won’t come cheap at $8,200, but he may offer the highest ceiling of any skill player on the slate in a game with serious shootout potential. Assuming Tua Tagovailoa can stay upright, Miami should be a popular stack on a weekly basis again this year.
C-Mac Back
Christian McCaffrey has battled injuries in recent years, but he looked rejuvenated after his midseason trade from Carolina to San Francisco a season ago. Across 11 appearances with the Niners, McCaffrey racked up 1,210 yards from scrimmage with 10 total TDs. The 49ers may have the league’s most talented offense at the skill positions entering the new season, though McCaffrey will again be the focal point.
McCaffrey has been one of the most productive all-around backs in football since entering the league, so he garners significant ownership almost every week by default. On Sunday, the Niners will kick things off with a road matchup against the Steelers in Pittsburgh. The visitors are only 2.5-point favorites here, and Pittsburgh did finish a very respectable 6th in DVOA vs. the run last term.
Still, DK’s PPR format gives pass-catching RBs like McCaffrey significantly more value. McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler were the only running backs in the league to accrue at least 100 targets last season. C-Mac has the highest fantasy floor of any non-QB thanks to his ability to contribute in a variety of ways, so his healthy ownership doesn’t come as a surprise.
…Luke Musgrave!?
I can forgive you if this is the first time you’ve heard the name “”(player-popup #luke-musgrave)Luke Musgrave”:/players/luke-musgrave-4687754.” The Packers took the ex-Oregon State tight end with the 42nd pick in the most recent draft. Tight end is the thinnest position in fantasy football, so ownership tends to congregate around your obvious Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews types. Those guys will cost you, though, so punting TE is often a smart strategy, too.
Musgrave is going to step into the Packers’ starting tight end spot from day one, which should put him on the field plenty as Green Bay begins the Jordan Love era. Musgrave got ample reps in the preseason. In Week 1, Musgrave and the Pack will take on a Bears defense that ranked dead-last in the league in DVOA against the pass just last season.
Musgrave is cheap ($2,900) with a significant role in a strong matchup. Going all-in on a chalky rookie tight end isn’t the most comfortable way to approach Week 1, but it’s easy to see why he’ll be popular.
Kirk Leads High-Octane Jags Attack
Tyreek Hill may be the most popular WR play in Week 1, but Jacksonville’s Christian Kirk is attracting significant ownership in his own right. Kirk recorded his first-ever 1,000-yard season as a first-year Jag in 2022, though the arrival of Calvin Ridley could put a dent in his target share this time around.
At $5,600, Kirk is reasonably priced for Jacksonville’s advantageous matchup at Indianapolis this week. Dome games are always attractive environments for pass-catchers, and the Jaguars’ 25 implied team total is among the highest on the slate. Ridley may ultimately dethrone Kirk as the top target for Trevor Lawrence, but there should still be enough scraps left for Kirk to continue as a reliable secondary source of fantasy production in what should be a high-scoring offense.
Indianapolis presumably won’t be offering too much resistance again this season, but I don’t mind the idea of coming in under the field on the Jags’ popular WR2 this week.