NFL DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections: Week 11 Notes & Advice
Week 11 of the 2023 NFL season brings us an 11-game main slate on Sunday afternoon. As usual, it’s fair to assume ownership will congregate around a few obvious spots. Cardinals-Texans has the highest over/under of the week at 48.5 points, so that’ll likely be a popular game stack. Bears-Lions, Raiders-Dolphins, and Seahawks-Rams are the other games that stand out as potentially fruitful sources of fantasy value.
Our premium DraftKings ownership projections are live and ready to roll ahead of Sunday’s NFL slate. Who will be the most popular plays on DK in Week 11?
NFL DFS Week 11 DraftKings Ownership Projections
RB Devin Singletary ($5,300) – 29.29% pOWN%
TE Trey McBride ($4,400) – 25.35% pOWN%
D/ST Washington Commanders ($3,600) – 20.35% pOWN%
RB James Conner ($5,700) – 20.01% pOWN%
WR Tyreek Hill ($9,300) – 18.19% pOWN%
Week 11 NFL DFS ownership projections for DraftKings are accurate at the time of publication and subject to change. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium to get updated ownership projections all the way to kickoff.
DraftKings Ownership Notes
Commanders Chalk Week!?
For the first time all season, we’ve got a D/ST ranking among the chalkiest plays of the week. To make matters more interesting, the defense that happens to be chalk in Week 11 isn’t even a particularly good one! That would be the Washington Commanders, who are projected to pull about 20% ownership in DK GPPs.
Washington ranks 30th in total DVOA this season. They’re 31st against the pass, but they’re a much more respectable 10th against the run. This team also traded a couple of franchise cornerstones, Montez Sweat and Chase Young, a couple of weeks ago. What gives?
Well, they’re facing the Giants. It’s really that simple. The Giants’ offense was already inept with Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor under center, but injuries to both mean this team will once again be starting Tommy DeVito at the most important position on the field. The last time New York topped 20 points in a game was way back in Week 2. The Giants’ 13.5-point implied team total is easily the lowest of the week as well.
I get it, but it’s not like we’re getting Washington at any sort of a discount here at $3,600. D/STs are generally dart throws to begin with. You can get the Cowboys – an actual elite defense – in a comparably good spot against the Panthers this week for just $500 more. As of this writing, Dallas is projecting for a quarter of Washington’s pOWN%.
Devin Singletary? Devin Singletary.
Singletary stunk it up in his first starting opportunity a couple of weeks ago in the Texans’ shootout win over the Bucs. He mustered all of 26 yards on 13 carries and didn’t find the end zone despite playing three-fourths of the offensive snaps. Last week, however, he proved to be a slate-winner in a similar role. Singletary rumbled all over the Bengals for 150 yards on 30 carries with a TD on 81% of the snaps.
It sounds like Dameon Pierce will be out again this week when the Cardinals come to town. Singletary’s salary came up $600, yet he’s still popping as the best point-per-dollar play at running back. We’ve been picking on Arizona all season, and they’re just 28th in the league in DVOA vs. the run.
So, the ownership is justified. Singletary looks like he’ll be the most popular player at any position, as he’s clearly not priced for the role. You won’t find many running backs anywhere capable of logging 30 carries in a game, and the game script is potentially favorable with the Texans favored by nearly a touchdown at home.
Run It Back With the Cardinals
The Cardinals were a popular source of value in Week 10, and it looks like that’ll be the case again in Week 11. Marquise Brown is $5,300 for the second straight week, while both James Conner ($5,700) and Trey McBride ($4,400) are relatively cheap. Conner returned from IR to play 63% of the snaps in the win over Atlanta, and it’s fair to assume his role will improve as he continues to work his way back from injury.
McBride, meanwhile, is coming off the best game of his career, which coincided with the return of Kyler Murray. McBride hauled in 8 of his 9 targets for 131 yards. His salary rose by $900, but he’s still cheap compared to the likes of George Kittle, Sam LaPorta, and some of the other upper-echelon tight ends. McBride actually projects better than any other TE from a median standpoint, yet he’s only the 6th-most-expensive player at the position.
The matchup sets up well, as Houston has been a middling pass defense all season (20th in pDVOA). McBride will continue to factor heavily into the Cardinals’ plans with Zach Ertz still sidelined, though it’s possible our current 25% pOWN% may even be undershooting how popular he’ll be on Sunday.
Tyreek Back In Our Lives
The Dolphins were on a bye last week, but they’re back in action on Sunday with the Raiders in town for a visit. Miami has the highest implied team total of the week (29.5), and they’re favored by nearly 2 touchdowns over a struggling and generally mediocre Raiders bunch.
Tyreek Hill has been about as safe as anybody in the league when it comes to fantasy output. He has generated double-digit targets in 6 of Miami’s 9 games, including each of the last 4. He’s gone over 100 receiving yards in 5 of them, while he’s already found pay dirt 8 times.
The Las Vegas defense is poor inside or outside the dome. They’re 22nd in tDVOA, which makes this an elite bounce-back spot for that dynamic Dolphins offense. Without many expensive QBs to pay for this week, we should have some cash to splash at the skill positions. Hill is projected to be the most popular target in the $9,000 range by a massive margin.