NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel - Week 14
NFL DFS season is in full swing as Week 14 approaches, and our expert analysts are breaking down NFL DFS lineup optimizer picks and projections for FanDuel and DraftKings. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
It’s the final week with byes, as the Cardinals and Commanders are getting a breather, and with two MNF games we’re left with eleven main slate games. With weather getting worse on the East coast and injuries piling up, game totals are starting to drop drastically, as six of the eleven main slate games currently have totals of 40.5 or lower, with JAC/CLE & HOU/NYJ leading the way at 32.5 and 33.5 respectively.
The Jaguars lost Christian Kirk for the year and Tank Dell is out for the year with a broken leg, so Collins, Brown, and Woods are all looking at nice target bumps. Isiah Pacheco is now out after not practicing this week with a shoulder injury, so Edwards-Helaire and McKinnon will be looking at a lot more work.
Justin Jefferson is the biggest name coming back from injury, while some other guys back available include Dawson Knox, Tommy Tremble, Jerick McKinnon, and DOnta Foreman. Meanwhile, Zach Wilson is back at QB for the Jets after the Boyle/Siemian experiment failed miserably.
Let’s get into some of my favorite plays of the slate!
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks for DraftKings
With so many low game totals, there are plenty of strong DST’s in play, but for cash games I think the Texans ($4,000) are the best play in wet and windy conditions against the Jets. We’re going to have to decide which position or two we want to spend up at, as they each have great options at $7,800+, especially WR, which has eight guys priced at $7,500+. McCaffrey ($9,200) is a clear top target as a huge home favorite against Seattle, and Josh Allen ($8,300) is the highest upside QB of the slate in a likely shootout with KC, making Travis Kelce ($7,800) someone worth having exposure to in GPPs if he doesn’t make your main build. Personally, I’m liking a more balanced build in cash games as I think there are plenty of underpriced options with just as much upside as the priciest plays.
Alvin Kamara ($8,200)
At $1k cheaper than CMC, Kamara is a value, in my opinion, going against a Panthers defense allowing 125.2 rush yards/game. This game is in New Orleans as well, where Kamara has scored an additional 3.2 FPPG on the year, and with Taysom Hill out, we should see an even bigger workload than the usual 16-20 touches Kamara gets. We know Kamara is a PPR machine as he has 5+ targets in all but one game, and as 5.5 point home favorites, I think the Saints lean on Kamara here and he either puts up a huge rushing line with a couple of TDs, or is heavily involved in the passing game if Carolina keeps this game close.
On the other side of this game, I really like Chuba Hubbard ($5,600), who has taken over the Carolina backfield with 25 carries last week. He draws a solid matchup as the Saints are allowing 125.5 rush yards/game, and even if the Panthers fall behind, I think Hubbard will stay involved as he had a five-target game a couple of weeks ago. He’s a strong guy to game stack with Kamara, as both are looking at big workloads in plus matchups.
Elijah Moore ($4,500)
Moore has seen 7+ targets in each of his last four games, and with Flacco under center last week, he saw a season-high 12 targets. The bump in volume had a lot to do with Cooper leaving early with a concussion, and even with Cooper available this week, I would still consider Moore for value as there aren’t many other WRs under $5k I’m interested in, and he should still have a 6+ target floor with Flacco.
Jonathan Mingo ($3,500) is the cheapest WR I’d consider for cash games after Moore, as he’s seen 6+ targets four straight weeks, and game script should help him see the higher range of his target upside. He’s yet to score a TD this year, so when he eventually does, he will smash his salary. I think this could be the week, as he’s coming off his highest-target game of the season, and with the Panthers out of contention, they should lean on their young guys more.
Sam LaPorta ($6,100)
I don’t want to spend up on Kelce, and I think a lot of the super cheap TEs have just way too low floors for cash games, so LaPorta is where I’m going as he is underpriced to me after going for 32 FP last week. This DET/CHI game only has a 3-point spread and a solid 43.5 total, giving it plenty of shootout potential, and the Bears have been even more of a pass-funnel defense than the Lions, with the top-ranked run defense (79 rush yards/game) and the 25th ranked pass defense (239.5 pass yards/game). With 17 targets and 2 TDs over the last couple of weeks, LaPorta should be priced much closer to Kelce, yet he’s almost $2k cheaper, so for the price and matchup, he is easily my favorite cash game TE this week.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks for FanDuel
The Texans DST ($4,800) is still my top p/$ cash game defense, while Alvin Kamara ($9,000), Elijah Moore ($6,200), and Sam LaPorta ($7,200) remain a great cash game core. Hubbard ($6,700) and Mingo ($5,500) are both still top values to help fill a final spot for cheap to game stack with Kamara, and I’m seeing plenty of other excellent value at RB/WR that I’ll talk about below. I also like going cheap at QB this week with someone like Jake Browning ($6,500) or Joe Flacco ($6,400), as both have multi-TD upside and will make it much easier to fit in 2-3 high priced skill players.
Joe Mixon ($7,200)
Mixon comes in as the 9th most expensive RB this week, and playing at home in a game with plenty of shootout potential sitting at a 43.5 total with just a 1.5 point spread, he’s my favorite p/$ cash game RB on FanDuel. After seeing only 10 touches two weeks ago, the Bengals made sure to feed Mixon last week as he saw 25 touches, which he turned into 117 total yards and two TDs. He’s now gone for 15+ FP in four of his last six games and should remain the focal point of the offense with Burrow out, and this week he gets a Colts defense allowing 133.3 rush yards/game, so given the matchup and volume, I think he’s just too cheap to fade in your main build.
Rashee Rice ($6,300)
I still prefer Elijah Moore ($6,200) if you only have space for one, but if you need two WRs in this price range, then Rice is a fantastic option playing at home in the highest game total of the slate. He’s seen 19 targets over the last two weeks and there’s no question he’s the second favorite target for Mahomes after Kelce, so besides Moore, there just isn’t any other WR under $6.5k that has a legit 8-10 target floor with a ceiling as high as the expensive WRs.
Isaiah Likely ($5,200)
If you need an extra $2k salary to fit your favorite build, then I don’t mind dropping from LaPorta to Likely at TE. The Ravens are coming off their bye week so Likely has had extra time to build an even better rapport with Lamar, and I think his 4-40 line on 6 targets in his last full game is probably his floor in most games the rest of the year. There is a lot of rain and wind in the forecast for his game with the Rams, so short passes should see an increase in the game plan, and the Rams defense just happens to be one of the the most giving in the league to opposing TEs.
Use Our DFS Lineup Optimizer for Week 14
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