NFL DFS FanDuel Ownership Projections: Week 17 Preview
In this space, we’ll preview FanDuel ownership projections for the Sunday main slate of Week 17 of the NFL DFS season. We’ll look at chalk. We’ll look at contrarian plays. We’ll look at plays that should be owned more than they will be. We’ll look at plays that should be owned less than they should be.
This isn’t a comprehensive look at ownership throughout the slate, but a peek into what stands out. The reasoning behind the analysis can be applied to dozens of other players on the slate.
NFL DFS Week 17 FanDuel Ownership Preview
- Deebo Samuel ($8,800) – 4.82%
- Christian McCaffrey ($11,000) – 12.36%
- Kyren Williams ($9,400) – 6.93%
- Justin Fields ($8,200) – 6.10%
- New England Patriots DST ($3,200) – 1.16%
Week 17 NFL DFS ownership projections for FanDuel are accurate at the time of publication and subject to change. Sign up for Premium to get updated ownership projections all the way to kickoff.
FanDuel Ownership Notes
Salary Depressing Ownership
The 49ers come into the week with the highest implied total at 31.0 and there’s a lot of ownership going to George Kittle (22.27%) and Brandon Aiyuk (15.56%) because they’re more affordable than Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey.
We can play them, but the more savvy play is to go to Samuel at under 5%. Samuel has 12, 7, 9, 4, and 9 targets over the last five games with 11 carries for extra touches, whereas Aiyuk has 7, 5, 9, 7, and 4 over this stretch. Samuel isn’t just the more dynamic playmaker. He’s the guy to whom the Niners will press to force the ball.
Facing a Commanders defense that has allowed the most passing YPG this season might not be the spot where the Niners are pressing, but if Samuel is the first look, he should get a lot of good looks. Sure, the salary is high, but the ownership cost is low.
McCaffrey and the whole RB position is interesting. Projections have McCaffrey extremely far ahead of Kyren Williams and Williams far ahead of the rest of the field. These are clearly the top-two backs on the close and it isn’t close. But both are expensive — especially McCaffrey — but that’s pushing their ownership down and capping it.
No Need to Stack
Jalen Hurts is looking like the top-owned QB on the slate (12.90%), followed by Josh Allen (10.61%) and Lamar Jackson (8.92%). Those three are the top-projected QBs, followed by Justin Fields at an ownership discount (6.10%).
A.J. Brown (20.90%) and Stefon Diggs (16.62%) are looking like big chalk, showing us that the field will largely gravitate toward stacking the Eagles and Bills. But we don’t have to stack our QB this week — if we’re playing one of these four — because they’re all so mobile.
I’d play with it. The optimizer can cap the percentage of lineups in which we use stacks. We can lower that cap and see what naked lineups we get. It’s worth fiddling with this week more than most weeks.
We Have to Talk a Little Defense
The Cardinals DST is currently projecting at the top-owned DST (11.63%) by a hair over the Falcons (11.06%). The Falcons make sense. They’re under $4,000 and Justin Fields is a boom-bust QB. But the Cardinals against the Eagles is risky in and of itself and is highly questionable against this great offense while carrying so much ownership.
If we’re gonna get frisky at DST, we should be looking for lower-owned risk over chalky risk. The Patriots DST against the Bills is only $100 more than the Cardinals and Allen has a longer history of throwing to the wrong team — 47 INTs over the last 52 games, including the playoffs. Hurts has thrown 13 picks this season, so the Cardinals aren’t a stupid play. We get leverage against Hurts lineups, but a lot of the field is thinking this way.
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