NFL DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections: Week 3 Notes & Advice
Happy Week 3! The festivities will kick off on Thursday night when the Giants visit the 49ers in Santa Clara, and we’ve got a nice 12-game main slate on tap for Sunday.
An early run of our RotoGrinders DraftKings NFL ownership projections is live, and it’s never too early to take a gander. These projections are always subject to change depending on injury news and other factors, but knowing how the field is planning to approach the slate is a good way to get an early leg up on your competition.
There’s one game on this slate that should attract a ton of attention from an ownership standpoint. We’ve also got a backup-turned-starting running back whose salary hasn’t yet adjusted to his new role, which will make him a predictably chalky value.
Below are a few takeaways heading into Sunday’s DraftKings 12-game main slate for Week 3.
NFL DFS Week 3 DraftKings Ownership Projections
Week 3 NFL DFS ownership projections for DraftKings are accurate at the time of publication and subject to change. Sign up for RG Premium to get updated ownership projections all the way to kickoff.
DraftKings Ownership Notes
Jerome Ford Chalk Week!
On the heels of the vastly underwhelming Joshua Kelley Chalk Week, we’ve got another cheap running back popping for significant projected ownership. That would be none other than Jerome Ford, who took over in the Browns’ backfield after Nick Chubb went down with his brutal season-ending knee injury on Monday night. Ford made the most of his newfound opportunity, rushing for 106 yards on 16 carries. He also turned one of his 3 catches (on 4 targets) into a touchdown.
The Browns brought Kareem Hunt back on Wednesday, which muddles things at least a little bit. Hunt has been on this team for the past few years, so he likely knows the offense well enough to jump back in right away. However, Kevin Stefanski said Tuesday that Ford will be Cleveland’s No. 1 RB.
In their first post-Chubb game, the Browns will welcome the Titans to town. Yes, that’s the very same Titans defense that held the chalky Kelley to just 39 yards on 13 attempts a week ago. Tennessee led the NFL in DVOA against the run last season. They’ve yielded 65 rushing yards per game through 2 games this year, which is the fourth-best mark in football.
At just $4,800, though, it’ll be hard to ignore Ford as a value in what should be a fairly run-heavy offense. You’re playing him in cash games. I tend to think volume trumps matchup, though a Ford fade in GPPs is viable if he’s going to be rostered by a quarter of the field or more.
Pay Down for Ford, Pay Up for Jefferson
Having a cheap running back du jour should lead to a popular roster construction. Plunging for Ford means you’ll have money to spend elsewhere. What better way to spend that money than by splurging $9,300 on the great Justin Jefferson in the game with the highest total of the week? Jefferson’s 25.17% projected ownership directly correlates to Ford’s popularity.
The Vikings have taken to the air on nearly 80% of their offensive snaps through 2 games. That is a hilariously unsustainable number, but why wouldn’t you throw the ball all the time if you have Jefferson running routes? TJ Hockenson, Jordan Addison, and KJ Osborn are no slouches, either. The Vikings’ 27.5 implied team total is the third-highest on the slate, and they’re only 1.5-point favorites over the visiting Chargers.
It’s easy to see how this game shoots out. Given the nature of both teams, it’ll also be fascinating to see which of them winds up blowing it in the most embarrassing fashion imaginable. You know it’s coming.
Jefferson’s next touchdown will be his first of the season, but he’s already accrued a ridiculous 309 receiving yards on 20 catches and 32 targets.
Based on ownership, spending up on your WRs looks like the popular construction, with midrange/cheap RBs emerging as viable targets. On the other side of that Chargers-Vikings game is Keenan Allen, who went off for a monster game a week ago in Nashville. Allen hauled in 8 of his 10 targets for 111 yards and a couple of scores in LA’s OT loss to the Titans.
Austin Ekeler is questionable again with his ankle injury. Because Ekeler plays such a huge role in the passing game, his absence would presumably lead to more targets for Allen and Mike Williams, who combined for 23 looks from Justin Herbert last Sunday. If Ekeler returns, perhaps Allen’s current 19.32% pOWN comes down a bit.
This will be the most popular game to stack this week by a pretty wide margin, so there’s nothing sneaky about either team. I suppose the Cousins/Jefferson straight stack will be a little chalkier than Herbert/Allen, though the $6,000 Williams figures to garner some attention, too.
If we’re paying up to stack that Chargers-Vikings bonanza, we’re going to need to save a little more salary. Ford is the most obvious way to do so. Seattle’s Kenneth Walker ($6,200) is coming in as the fourth-most-popular player on DraftKings, followed by Houston’s Nico Collins ($5,300).
Much was made of the Seahawks’ decision to take Zach Charbonnet in the second round of the draft, but Walker has been on the field for more than 60% of the team’s snaps through 2 weeks. He salvaged his afternoon with a couple of rushing scores last week in Detroit, while he’s surprisingly attracted 7 targets through the air, as well.
On Sunday, the Seahawks will host what should be a beatable Panthers defense at home. The Saints ran up 134 yards and 2 rushing TDs against Carolina on Monday, so there’s reason to believe Walker will find room to operate. The $6,000 price range is loaded with popular plays at running back. In addition to Walker, Raheem Mostert (16.55%) and Miles Sanders (14.5%) are grading out as trendy targets.
The Texans, meanwhile, have one of the lowest implied team totals of the day (18) at Jacksonville, but Collins’ $5,300 salary should lead to some ownership. He seems to have quickly gained the trust of CJ Stroud, as evidenced by his 13 catches on 20 targets for 226 yards and a score to this point.
Houston is a decent underdog on the road (+9.5), so they should have a pass-heavy game script here. Garbage time fantasy points count too.