NFL DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections: Week 5 Notes & Advice
With four teams on bye, we’ve got just 10 games on the NFL main slate for Week 5. According to Kevin Roth, we’ve also got some windy conditions worth monitoring in the Saints-Pats and Ravens-Steelers affairs.
Theee games have over/unders of at least 49 points. Chiefs at Vikings (53.5) unsurprisingly tops the charts, followed by Eagles-Rams (50.5) and Giants-Dolphins (49.5). One of these games is not like the other, though, and it’s fair to assume the Dolphins’ implied team total there is around 49 points.
As usual, our RotoGrinders premium ownership projections suggest those high-total games will be popular DFS targets.
Below is an overview of how projected ownership is shaking out on DraftKings for Sunday afternoon.
NFL DFS Week 5 DraftKings Ownership Projections
Tyreek Hill ($9,000) – 22.49% pOWN
D’Andre Swift ($6,000) – 22.46% pOWN
David Montgomery ($6,600) – 20.17% pOWN
Kyren Williams ($6,700) – 20.01% pOWN
Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,600) – 18.16% pOWN
Tank Dell ($4,800) – 16% pOWN
Week 5 NFL DFS ownership projections for DraftKings are accurate at the time of publication and subject to change. Sign up for RG Premium to get updated ownership projections all the way to kickoff.
DraftKings Ownership Notes
Tyreek Bounce Back?
Following their 70-burger two weeks ago against the helpless and hapless Broncos, the Dolphins were humbled last Sunday in Western New York. Miami went up to Buffalo and came away with a 4-touchdown loss to their AFC East rivals.
Back in the day – oh, like 5 years ago – one bad game may have been enough to dramatically affect ownership from one week to the next. DFS players weren’t quite as savvy as they are today. Even after a 3-catch stinker against the Bills last week, Tyreek Hill is coming in as the most popular player on DraftKings this week, per our projections. The Dolphins’ speedster is projecting to be rostered by a little more than one-fifth of the field in large-field contests.
Hill’s target share so far this season is checking in just under 29%, which is actually down from the 33% mark he posted last year in his first with the team. It hasn’t been Jaylen Waddle (12%) eating into Hill’s targets, though, as Tua Tagovailoa has been spreading the wealth a bit more. All of Durham Smythe, Raheem Mostert, and Braxton Berrios have double-digit target shares through 4 weeks.
Hill is still the clear-cut go-to guy in the passing game, and it’s fair to assume Miami will look to get him heavily involved from the jump after last week’s middling effort. He’s a great play, but it is still interesting to see such a pOWN gulf between Hill and other pricey WRs like Justin Jefferson (10.75%) and AJ Brown (10.2%).
Long Live the Midrange Running Back
Based on projected ownership, midrange running backs will be all the rage this week. Christian McCaffrey and Josh Jacobs aren’t on the slate, while Saquon Barkley is iffy and still dealing with his nagging ankle injury. If we’re paying up for Hill, then it makes sense to drop down and shop for some cheaper running backs.
D’Andre Swift, David Montgomery, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Kyren Williams are all between $5,600 and $6,700 on DK, and they’re all pulling at least 18% pOWN.
Swift and Williams will square off on opposite sites of the aforementioned Eagles-Rams clash. Swift has taken the Philly backfield by storm since Week 2, but I’m still a little skeptical, especially if he’s going to be chalk. After logging 75% of the snaps in Week 2 with Kenneth Gainwell sidelined, he’s played 54% and 63% in Weeks 3 and 4, respectively.
To be fair, Philly is still getting Swift involved. He’s got 35 touches over the last 20 games, including 30 carries. He’s clearly established himself as the most explosive option out of the backfield, but his TD equity is shaky with Jalen Hurts there to vulture short-yardage opportunities. Swift can still put up a decent score if he fails to find paydirt – he just did it a week ago, after all – but he’s a chalky running back on whom I will be happy to be under the field this week.
Williams’ Heavy Workload
Unlike Week 3, Kyren Williams didn’t play 100% of the Rams’ snaps last week in Indianapolis. He was still out there for 72% of them, though, as Ronnie Rivers wound up with 9 carries in a backup role. Even with Rivers playing a cameo, the Rams still found a way to get Williams 25 carries and 3 catches. He topped 100 yards on the ground and scored a pair of touchdowns, to boot.
Indy’s defense isn’t quite as tenacious as the Philly group Williams will face this week, but he’s one of the few RBs around the league playing a legitimate bell-cow role these days. The Rams still have a healthy 23-point total despite their status as home underdogs, and the impending return of Cooper Kupp will affect Puka Nacua more than it’ll ding Williams.
The Eagles have been the top-ranked run defense in the league so far this season per DVOA. As it turns out, adding Jalen Carter to what was already an incredibly talented defense was a bit unfair to the rest of the league.
I tend to think volume trumps matchup, though there are plenty of viable pivots at the same position if Kyren is going to be super popular this week.
David Montgomery = Workhorse?
We heard all offseason about how the Lions planned to use rookie Jahmyr Gibbs in a hybrid role after surprisingly taking him with their first-round draft pick in April. Based on the first 4 games, though, Gibbs sure looks like a backup. He hasn’t logged even half of Detroit’s offensive snaps in any of the 3 games in which David Montgomery has been healthy enough to play. Montgomery, meanwhile, leads the NFL in totes per game (23) after handling a career-high 32 carries last week in Green Bay.
Monty logged nearly 80% of the Lions’ snaps in Week 1, and he was at 71% last week after returning from a thigh injury. Gibbs has been more heavily-utilized in passing situations, but it’s Montgomery hogging almost all of the groundwork, including in goal-line scenarios. He’s scored at least once in every game, though his ownership this week will be largely buoyed by last week’s 3-TD explosion.
This week, the Lions will return home to the dome for a date with the winless Panthers. Carolina is dead-last in the NFL in DVOA against the run through 4 games, and we saw that the Lions were more than happy to pound it with Monty and run clock after getting out to a big early lead last week against the Packers.
Unless the Panthers’ offense finally snaps to life and starts to put points on the board, it’s fair to assume the Lions (-8.5) will follow a similar script in this one.
Texans Chalk Week
As a Texans fan, I wasn’t sure I’d ever live to see Texans Chalk Week again, let alone this year. The offense has looked downright spry with C.J. Stroud under center, however, and they’re in a favorable spot again this week in Atlanta. Houston is just a 2.5-point underdog on the road against a Falcons defense that comes into this one ranked just 27th in the league in DVOA vs. the pass.
Stroud (3.3%) isn’t projecting for a ton of ownership on DraftKings, but his weapons certainly are. As of this writing, Tyreek is the only wideout projecting to be more popular than Tank Dell (16%) and Nico Collins (15.5%), and it’s easy to see why. You can pass on the Falcons, and the Texans have enjoyed a lot more success through the air than they have on the ground to this point.
Dell ($4,800) and Collins ($5,600) are also affordable. If we trust the Texans’ offense to be competent, both can pretty easily pay off those cheap salaries in an exploitable matchup. Collins (21%) is essentially tied with Robert Woods for the team-best target share, while Dell (17%) has been more of a big-play threat.
It is interesting to see Woods pulling about 2% ownership at only $4,000, though. He’s still getting plenty of looks in this offense. This is likely just a matter of the general public not wanting to roster the elder statesman on what is otherwise a young and exciting team. In Houston stacks, I’ll gladly pivot to Woods in place of Collins or Dell in an attempt to get a little different.