NFL DFS FanDuel Ownership Projections: Week 6 Preview
In this space, we’ll preview FanDuel ownership projections for the Sunday main slate of Week 6 of the NFL DFS season. We’ll look at chalk. We’ll look at contrarian plays. We’ll look at plays that should be owned more than they will be. We’ll look at plays that should be owned less than they should be.
This isn’t a comprehensive look at ownership throughout the slate, but a peek into what stands out. The reasoning behind the analysis can be applied to dozens of other players on the slate.
NFL DFS Week 6 FanDuel Ownership Preview
- Matthew Stafford ($7,300) – 13.86%
- Kyren Williams ($8,200) – 5.97%
- Kirk Cousins ($8,000) – 3.58%
- Jordan Addison ($6,700) – 19.08%
- Josh Downs (5,600) – 8.76%
Week 6 NFL DFS ownership projections for FanDuel are accurate at the time of publication and subject to change. Sign up for Premium to get updated ownership projections all the way to kickoff.
FanDuel Ownership Notes
Pivoting Off of the Chalk Stack
There is some value under $6k on this slate. Namely, Dameon Pierce, Roschon Johnson (if he plays), Emari Demercado at RB, and Josh Downs at WR. But the value isn’t the most inspiring, so the field will be looking to save with stacks.
Matthew Stafford is projected about 2.5 medians better than the next-best QB under $7,500. Overall, he’s third-best, even in raw points. At his price and the Rams with a fully loaded receiving corps, currently carrying a robust implied total of 27.75, Stafford stacks will grade out as the best play in a vacuum.
But we don’t play DFS in a vacuum. Sure, we can play Rams stacks, but we need to find leverage elsewhere. It’s easier to spend less on a cheaper stack against a worse defense in the Vikings.
Kirk Cousins is now without the best WR in football in Justin Jefferson for a while. But the Bears suck really hard. They’re giving up the most FD points to QBs this season (23.0), along with the second-most passing yards per game (286.0). The Vikings could hole up and run a lot more without Jefferson, but I’m not buying a philosophical shift unless the Vikings have a disastrous first half — and they shouldn’t.
The Vikings aren’t one of the top stacks on the slate in projection, but we need to save money somewhere. It’s probably easiest to do with correlation through a stack, saving some salary in the process and getting a nice ownership discount in the process.
Another pivot is to play Kyren Williams instead of the Rams passing game. He, Joe Mixon, Travis Etienne, Raheem Mostert, and David Montgomery are all within a point of each other in ceiling projection. Williams should come in the lowest with bargain hunters targeting the Rams’ air game. The real leverage play is probably to play the Vikings stack with Williams. After that, we should be able to play whoever we want.
Next Man Up
Staying on the Vikings and Jefferson, Jordan Addison isn’t a secret. He’s way too cheap for this situation and getting a ton of ownership for it. Only Cooper Kupp and Tyreek Hill are getting more pOWN%.
But this is why we stack the Vikings. Adding correlation to the mix with Cousins — or even just a skinny game stack with D.J. Moore or Cole Kmet, or as a runback with Justin Fields to Moore and/or Kmet stacks — lowers the ownership product of our lineup, as Cousins, Fields, Moore, and Kmet are all currently looking at single-digit ownership.
Jefferson’s target share is so high with that of TJ Hockenson that it’s hard for a third party to get some air here. But Addison has seen 18 targets over the last three weeks (and that’s including one target in Week 4. If you’re telling me that I can get eight targets to anyone against the Bears for under $7k, I’m interested and wouldn’t let the ownership projection take me off the scent.
Extreme Value Lacking
I listed off a bunch of guys under $6k that I don’t wanna play, but there’s one I do wanna play. Josh Downs.
Downs is more of a DK play in that his aDOT is only 6.8, but Gardner Minshew could target him 8-to-10 times in Week 6. Downs isn’t catching short stuff and falling down, either. He’s averaging 5.0 YAC per reception.
In games where Minshew has thrown double-digit pass attempts, Downs has seen 5, 12, and 6 targets, so there’s a ceiling there. And if the volume is there, there’s a raised possibility that he takes one to the house. If the volume isn’t there, he’s only $5,600. It’s not gonna kill us.
As road dogs, we should like the Colts to be forced to move the chains through the air. Michael Pittman is the obvious WR1 in this offense, but Downs’ short-stuff role as a WR2 is significant.