NFL DFS Stud WR Spotlight: Week 7 Projections
Player Projections are set for this week, and our sights are now set on Sunday’s main slate for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo!. The time is now to unleash the RotoGrinders LineupHQ Optimizer to discover the top projected wide receivers on the week. In this article, we will use the DFS player projections we create to discuss some high priced pass catchers with strong outlooks this week. We’ll also examine a high priced receiver who has some downside as well. Let’s get busy analyzing the slate, so that we can use projected ownership to make some key decisions later in the week.
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Week 7 NFL DFS Wide Receiver Projections
Davante Adams
NFL Team: Green Bay Packers
Opponent: Houston Texans
DraftKings Fantasy Points Projection: 22.53
FanDuel Fantasy Points Projection: 17.31
Yahoo Fantasy Points Projection: 17.31
Adams has only played two full games all season, and it’s safe to say the volume has been there in each of those.
In Week 1, he turned his 17 TARGETS (!!) into 14 receptions for 156 yards and two touchdowns against the Vikings.
In Week 6, he saw double-digit targets again (10) but was only able to produce six catches for 61 yards. You’d have to think that the matchup had a lot to do with that. Tampa Bay is one of the best defenses in the league, ranking first in both overall Defense DVOA and Pass Defense DVOA.
These Houston Texans the Packers get to face in Week 7 though? Not so much. They rank 27th in Defense DVOA and just 20th in Pass Defense DVOA.
The Packers are one of a handful of teams that has an implied total hovering around the 29-30 point range this week. Whether or not Adams is able to find the end zone this week against Houston remains to be seen, but we have to feel pretty good about him seeing a ton of volume regardless.
DeAndre Hopkins
NFL Team: Arizona Cardinals
Opponent: Seattle Seahawks
DraftKings Fantasy Points Projection: 23.06
FanDuel Fantasy Points Projection: 17.65
Yahoo Fantasy Points Projection: 17.65
Well, I think it is safe to say that the ‘Legion of Boom’ is a thing of the past.
This 2020 version of the Seattle Seahawks defense ranks 29th in Pass Defense DVOA and is trying to lap the field (or is it get lapped by the field?) in terms of how much production they give up to opposing wide receivers. Through five games, they have allowed roughly 38.5 fantasy points per game to this position. The next closest? The Minnesota Vikings at approximately 32.5.
For whatever reason, Hopkins and Kyler struggled to connect on Monday night against Dallas. Despite seeing eight targets, Nuk only was able to pull in two of them (albeit for 73 yards).
That being said, I am going to bet on the volume all day, every day, especially when it comes to a guy as good as Hopkins. Those eight targets on Monday equated to a massive 36.4% of the market share of targets. That puts him at 31.7% on the season, which is second in the entire league (behind Jamison Crowder of all people). Can you say bounce-back spot??
Michael Thomas
NFL Team: New Orleans Saints
Opponent: Carolina Panthers
DraftKings Fantasy Points Projection: 17.88
FanDuel Fantasy Points Projection: 13.69
Yahoo Fantasy Points Projection: 13.69
Thomas needs to be discussed here because this will be his first game since Week 1. The difficulty in analyzing Thomas though is trying to predict how much he will be out on the field.
For those that haven’t been following the news, Thomas was apparently healthy enough to return in Week 5 but was kept out for team discipline. And since the Saints had their bye in Week 6, one would think it’d be all systems go for Thomas.
This was a guy who played almost 94% of the team’s snaps in 2019. He played 81% of the snaps in Week 1 before suffering that ankle injury in the fourth quarter.
And if we assume he is out on the field for his normal (or close to normal) snaps, what will the volume look like? Was his 16.7% market share of targets in Week 1 just a fluke? After all, Thomas was well north of 30% in 2019.
There are plenty of question marks surrounding Thomas (and not just in fantasy football circles apparently!). If nothing else, he could provide good leverage if his teammate (Alvin Kamara) ends up being one of the most popular players on the slate. I could easily see this as a game that Brees and the Saints just force-feed Thomas the ball to get him right back into the swing of things after being out for so long.
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Image Credit: Imagn