NFL DFS WR/TE Usage: Reviewing Week 9
NFL passing attacks evolve, and stats like targets, air yards, and snap counts rarely stay consistent for an entire season. NFL wide receivers and tight end usage is therefore critical knowledge for our lineup decisions on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo.
Let’s use the RotoGrinders Usage App from JoshADHD to remind ourselves of a few key usage trends from the week that was. We’ll want to understand how it could help us with our NFL projections and projected ownership in the coming weeks.
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Week 9 NFL DFS Wide Receiver and Tight End Targets and Air Yards Report
Jerry Jeudy
NFL Team: Denver Broncos
Position: WR
Snap Percentage: 84% in Week 9
Team Share of Targets: 31% in Week 9
Team Share of Air Yards: 48% in Week 9
After seeing a total of 13 targets in a three-game stretch spanning Weeks 4-7 (Broncos bye was Week 5), Jeudy has been a Drew Lock favorite over the past two games. In those two games, Jeudy has 24 targets (accounting for a 29% market share of targets) and a crazy-high 396 air yards (50% market share of air yards).
And the majority of that volume came this past week against the Falcons, as the Broncos were playing from behind basically all game and were forced to throw a bunch. What exactly were the numbers, you ask?
14 targets (31% market share), 237 air yards (48% market share), 7 receptions, 125 yards, 1 TD, 22 FanDuel / 28.5 DraftKings points
There is no doubting that Jeudy’s numbers have been helped by favorable game-scripts. I mentioned that they were playing from behind against Atlanta this past week, but almost the exact same game-script played out in Week 8 against the Chargers (except the Broncos were able to pull that one out in the end).
Regardless, it is still good to see Lock homing in on Jeudy the last two weeks far more than any other Broncos pass-catcher. Whether or not they continue to throw this much is…up in the air (yeah I did)…but the price is still pretty cheap on both FanDuel ($5,800) and DraftKings ($5,600) for an elite matchup against the Raiders in Week 10.
Evan Engram
NFL Team: New York Giants
Position: TE
Snap Percentage: 75% in Week 9
Team Share of Targets: 30% in Week 9
Team Share of Air Yards: 35% in Week 9
Honestly, it feels dirty even writing up a Giants skill position player. After all, this offense as a whole averages less than 300 yards per game (298.2 to be exact). If it wasn’t for their ‘New York’ counterparts—who check in at 266 yards per game—the Giants would be dead last in the league.
But the volume Engram has been seeing is just too much to ignore. He has seen 29 targets over the last three weeks (28% market share in that span), which was topped off by the 10 targets he saw in Week 9 against Washington. And even though he scored in that game too, the end result from a fantasy perspective (13.3 FanDuel / 15.8 DraftKings) isn’t exactly eye-popping stuff.
I have to think a monster game is imminent though. Whether that be hauling in more of his targets (for example, he has only caught 10 of his 20 targets the past two games), accumulating more yards, or maybe even having a multi-touchdown game, the ceiling is there for this guy on volume alone. Just think what his fantasy output would be if all three of those things happened in one game!
Perhaps this upcoming matchup against the Eagles is what finally gives us that breakout game. According to GridIronIQ, the Eagles have allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season. Outside of the obvious top fantasy tight ends, I think Engram subtly has one of the better floor/ceiling combinations at the position.
DJ Chark
NFL Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
Position: WR
Snap Percentage: 86% in Week 9
Team Share of Targets: 32% in Week 9
Team Share of Air Yards: 51% in Week 9
Well, I think Jake Luton found his guy. You are probably going to develop an affinity for someone who takes it to the house for 73 yards on your second-ever NFL throw.
It didn’t stop there though. Chark saw a total of 12 targets in that game Sunday against Houston, ultimately racking up seven receptions for 146 yards and that aforementioned score. What’s more is that his 173 air yards in that game was the fourth most in Week 9, trailing only the likes of Jeudy (237), Tyreek Hill (232), and Jakobi Meyers (187).
The Jaguars clearly want to get this guy the ball. Even in Weeks 6-7 (Jags were on a bye in Week 8), with Gardner Minshew under center, Chark’s 31% market share of targets clearly outpaced the next closest Jags pass-catcher (Keelan Cole at 16%).
The price came up $1,000 on DraftKings (to $6,200) after his big game in Week 9, but he clearly has the type of ceiling to beat it if things go his way. I look forward to seeing if he and Luton can build on that rapport in Week 10 against the Packers. With Green Bay opening up at -14, you have to think the Jags will be throwing a lot in this game.
Image Credit: Imagn