NFL Pick'em Pool Strategy, Confidence Rankings: Straight-Up Picks Week 11
A pair of heavy favorites in our top-five went down last weekend, but we are still 14-2 in our top-six overall for confidence purposes across the last three weeks. In Week 11, the Falcons, Colts, Patriots, and Saints are on bye. There are seven teams favored by at least a touchdown and eight teams favored by at least five points, making this an easier week than most for picking NFL games.
Below, we have our Week 11 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
2023 NFL Pick’em
Each week in this article, I will rank each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
NFL Week 11 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 11 Selections
1. Miami Dolphins
2. San Francisco 49ers
3. Detroit Lions
4. Dallas Cowboys
5. Buffalo Bills
6. Jacksonville Jaguars
7. Washington Commanders
8. Houston Texans
9. Cleveland Browns
10. Los Angeles Chargers
11. Baltimore Ravens
12. Los Angeles Rams
13. Minnesota Vikings
14. Philadelphia Eagles
NFL Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 11
Dolphins (vs. Raiders)
There have been a few pundits who have gone as far as to call the Miami Dolphins “frauds” due to their 0-3 record against the Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, and Kansas City Chiefs. However, a person’s opinion as to whether or not Tua Tagovailoa and company are legitimate Super Bowl contenders is a moot point when they play a team that has as little talent as the Las Vegas Raiders. The Dolphins are 6-0 against teams that don’t have legitimate championship aspirations in 2023, and they should be 7-0 by the conclusion of games this weekend. Las Vegas has played well in the two weeks since Antonio Pierce took over as the team’s head coach, but they still only scored 16 points in Week 10 against the New York Jets. They will need a lot more points than that if they hope to be competitive in this spot on Sunday.
49ers (vs. Buccaneers)
The San Francisco 49ers lost three consecutive games going into their bye week, and their bandwagon completely emptied. Brock Purdy and company made those outlandish takes look foolish in Week 10 with a 34-3 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. In the victory, San Francisco out-gained Jacksonville by 216 yards of total offense and had nearly seven more minutes of possession. Trent Williams was back at practice this week for the 49ers. His presence would only further bolster the offensive line for this group. San Francisco is a deserving heavy favorite in this spot.
Lions (vs. Bears)
Since the beginning of last season, the Detroit Lions are 8-5 on their home field, with all five of their losses coming by one score against extremely competitive teams. The Chicago Bears are not that a competitive team. Justin Fields will be back on the field this weekend, but he is not at 100 percent healthy by his own admission. His dislocated thumb was on his throwing hand, which makes it likely that his work through the air will be impacted on some level against the Lions. Detroit is the better team on both sides of the ball in this matchup. Intra-division games are often more competitive than expected, but the Lions should be able to come away with a win here.
Cowboys (vs. Panthers)
As long as Bryce Young is the starting quarterback for the Carolina Panthers, their offense will be extremely limited. The Panthers have one win this season and it was a game in which they scored 15 points. Young has led Carolina’s offense to more than 17 points only twice this year, and both times were in blowout game scripts when the opposing defense was less worried about points being put on the board late in the contest. The Dallas Cowboys have scored 43 points or more in two of their last three games and have seemingly figured out their red zone issues, which were a major problem earlier in the year. Dallas should have little trouble in this spot on Sunday against an inferior opponent.
Bills (vs. Jets)
We have been sounding the big red alarm on the Buffalo Bills for over a month in our RotoGrinders articles, but we are not as apocalyptic in our analysis of them in Week 11 against the New York Jets. Buffalo’s problems have stemmed primarily from the defensive side of the ball, which is unlikely to be a major issue against a New York offense that has not scored more than 13 points in a game in over a month. Zach Wilson and the Jets offense has been held to 20 points or fewer in regulation in eight of their first nine games this season. Josh Allen should be able to win this game, whether his defense shows up or not.
2023 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 11-5
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 9-7
- Week 4: 12-4
- Week 5: 7-7
- Week 6: 9-6
- Week 7: 6-7
- Week 8: 11-5
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 6-8
2022 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-5-1
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 13-3
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 11-5
- Week 6: 8-6
- Week 7: 7-7
- Week 8: 12-3
- Week 9: 10-3
- Week 10: 7-7
- Week 11: 11-3
- Week 12: 11-5
- Week 13: 8-6-1
- Week 14: 8-5
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 8-8
- Week 17: 10-5-1
- Week 18: 9-8
2021 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 13-3
- Week 6: 9-5
- Week 7: 10-3
- Week 8: 8-7
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 5-8-1
- Week 11: 8-7
- Week 12: 7-8
- Week 13: 11-3
- Week 14: 12-2
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 11-5
- Week 17: 13-3
- Week 18: 10-6