NFL Pick'em Pool Strategy, Confidence Rankings: Straight Up Picks Week 3
Through two weeks of action in 2023, we are 21-11 (65.6%) in our NFL pick’em article. This weekend, we have our easiest week of matchups yet, with eight teams favored by at least a touchdown.
Below, we take a look at how to rank those heavy favorites, and which underdogs might be worth taking a stab on for fewer confidence points!
In 2021, we led many pick’em participants to championships in their confidence pools with a 181-90-1 (66.8%) season! Last year, we regressed slightly, but rarely missed on our top weekly selections, which meant that a 171-98-3 (63.6%) season was good enough to, once again, win the vast majority of tournaments. We had zero weeks in 2022 with a sub .500 record on our recommendations.
2023 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 11-5
- Week 2: 10-6
2023 NFL Pick’em
Each week in this article, I will rank each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders discord and follow me on Twitter.
NFL Week 3 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 3 Selections
1. San Francisco 49ers
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Jacksonville Jaguars
6. Miami Dolphins
7. Buffalo Bills
8. Seattle Seahawks
9. Tennessee Titans
10. Los Angeles Chargers
11. New England Patriots
12. Atlanta Falcons
13. Green Bay Packers
14. Las Vegas Raiders
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
16. Los Angeles Rams
NFL Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 3
49ers (vs. Giants)
According to br_betting, Daniel Jones has a 1-10 SU record in primetime games for his career, which is the worst record of any quarterback with at least 10 starts since 1970. He is also 0-7 as a double-digit underdog in the NFL. Tonight, the New York Giants will be without running back Saquon Barkley, starting left tackle Andrew Thomas, and one of their best pass rushers Azeez Ojulari. Linebacker Micah McFadden is also listed as questionable, who enters Week 3 as the team’s second-leading tackler. Simply, the San Francisco 49ers are the far superior team on both sides of the ball in this matchup and should find a way to come away with a victory.
Cowboys (vs. Cardinals)
On Thursday, news surfaced that cornerback Trevon Diggs suffered a torn ACL in practice. This injury news is a bigger deal for individuals who are holding futures tickets on the Dallas Cowboys than it is for anyone needing to defeat the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. Arizona held a 20-0 lead at one point during their Week 2 game against the New York Giants but still managed to find a way to lose. Dallas has one of the league’s best defenses in addition to having enough offensive firepower to win a potential shootout. It’s always a risk to trust teams to win on the road, but Dallas is a double-digit favorite here for a reason. Since 2018, road favorites of at least 10 points are 41-12 straight up. Have confidence in the Cowboys this weekend.
Chiefs (vs. Bears)
Having the Kansas City Chiefs ranked this high in our pick’em selections this week has more to do with the ineptitude of the Chicago Bears than anything else. Chicago was run off of their home field in Week 1 in a 38-20 loss to the Green Bay Packers. Last weekend, the Bears lost 27-17 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers – a team that had higher hopes for the draft than the playoffs entering 2023. The return of Chris Jones to the Chiefs’ defensive line paid enormous dividends in Week 2, with him recording 1.5 sacks, two quarterback hits, and a pass defended. Home favorites of at least 10 points are 133-19 straight up since the beginning of the 2018 campaign. There is no reason to overthink things here.
Ravens (vs. Colts)
According to Nate Atkins, Anthony Richardson did not practice again on Thursday, making it highly unlikely that he suits up this weekend against the Baltimore Ravens. Center Ryan Kelly and left guard Quenton Nelson were also listed as non-participants at practice on Thursday for the Indianapolis Colts, making it a possibility that the Colts could be in dire shape on offense this weekend against a tough Ravens defense. Baltimore has not played their best football yet this fall, but they still find themselves 2-0 thanks to an elite front-seven that has forced six sacks so far in 2023. Facing a backup signal caller on their home field, Baltimore is a trustworthy option this week.
Jaguars (vs. Texans)
As someone who was admittedly bullish on the Houston Texans entering the new season, this is a low-risk upset spot in Week 3. Since September 6, the Texans have placed three players on injured reserve. This week, safety Jalen Pitre has yet to practice. Safety Eric Murray has been limited at practice due to an injury. Edge defender Jonathan Greenard has been limited due to injury. Arguably Houston’s best cornerback Tavierre Thomas has also not practiced this week. Simply, it is extraordinarily rare for a team with this many injuries to pull an upset on the road. C.J. Stroud looks like an NFL-caliber signal caller, but the house of cards is currently falling down all around him. Trust Trevor Lawrence and company to find a way to win this contest.
2022 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-5-1
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 13-3
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 11-5
- Week 6: 8-6
- Week 7: 7-7
- Week 8: 12-3
- Week 9: 10-3
- Week 10: 7-7
- Week 11: 11-3
- Week 12: 11-5
- Week 13: 8-6-1
- Week 14: 8-5
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 8-8
- Week 17: 10-5-1
- Week 18: 9-8
2021 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 13-3
- Week 6: 9-5
- Week 7: 10-3
- Week 8: 8-7
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 5-8-1
- Week 11: 8-7
- Week 12: 7-8
- Week 13: 11-3
- Week 14: 12-2
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 11-5
- Week 17: 13-3
- Week 18: 10-6