NFL Grind Down: Week 14 - Page Three

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-12-07 03:37:07

New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings

New York Jets						Minnesota Vikings
Sun – 1:00 PM						Mall of America Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		6	40.5	17.25				-6	40.5	23.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	15.6	30	32	8		Offense	19.4	23	31	14
Defense	19.4	23	31	14		Defense	15.6	30	32	8
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Minnesota Vikings	10	27	12	9		New York Jets	30	7	18	29
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Decker	72	45	4	468		Patterson	61	30	1	350
Harvin	56	40	0	313		Jennings	73	45	4	546
Kerley	56	27	1	239		Johnson	34	17	1	240
Cumberland	32	15	1	154		Rudolph	25	15	2	153

Quick Grind

•Yuck
•Worst game of the week in terms of DFS

New York Jets

WR Percy Harvin

Narrative Street Alert: Percy Harvin REVENGE GAME

Harvin returns to the place where his NFL problems all began this week… And that’s basically the extent of the excitement for Jets playmakers this week. The truth is, if Geno is going to throw the ball less than 20 times a game, there simply isn’t enough to go around. Harvin should be able to secure some work via the ground game as well, but there just doesn’t seem to be enough touches here for Harvin to truly honor his Revenge Game narrative. He is a high-risk tournament play this week.

WR Eric Decker

Narrative Street Alert: Home-Town Hero!

Quick story about Eric Decker. I grew up in central Minnesota and played high school football against him. On one play, he hit me so hard that it knocked the hip pad out of my pants. I’m not even sure that’s physically possible – but it happened. So thank you, Eric Decker. I wouldn’t have any Eric Decker stories to tell if it wasn’t for you!

On to the ‘analysis’:

Even with a STREET FREE AGENT lined up across from him at CB last week, the Jets still refused to feature Decker (or anyone) in the passing game. I know this because Jon Gruden wouldn’t shut the hell up about it for the entire game. If this ‘new look’ Jets offense really just means ‘no passing’, then Decker, like Harvin, is of little use to us until the game plan changes.

RB Chris Ivory & Chris Johnson

Ivory and Johnson had 16 and 17 touches last week, respectively. They piled up 167 combined yards. And if you take out CJ_Ks 47-yard scamper, the two were basically exactly equal in touches and production (CJ: 16-58; CI: 16-62). Unfortunately, we have no idea how many touches the RB duo will rack up this week, or if it will be evenly distributed again. The matchup is prime – the Vikings allow the 5th-most FPPG to opposing RBs – but we just don’t know what this backfield is going to do. I would avoid the situation entirely until we see the New Jets Offense in action for one more week.

QB Geno Smith

NO

Minnesota Vikings

WR Charles Johnson

The Chuck Johnson Hypetrain picked up even more steam this week when Vikes OC Norv Turner named Chuck as a starter this week. Johnson should get all the snaps and targets he can handle against a Jets defense that hasn’t been able to handle anybody in the passing game. Johnson is a sneaky tournament WR this week.

TE Kyle Rudolph

Rudolph is a tournament-specific pivot if you don’t want to pay up for Gronk or Graham. He appears free from any injury limitations after playing 88% and 92% of snaps the last two weeks. And while he only saw 3 targets last week, he converted one for a TD. Rudolph’s red-zone usage (I was tempted to turn this into a Xmas carol) and TD potential is what makes him a weekly consideration in DFS, but this week the matchup seals the deal. The Jets allow the 3rd-most FPPG to opposing TEs and surrender 1.2 TDs per game to the position as well. The Jets ineptitude in TE coverage is both Rudolph’s and our gain this week.

Any Vikings RB

Just don’t roster them – the Jets have graded out as the top run-defense squad since the dawn of time.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

Carolina Panthers						New Orleans Saints
Sun – 1:00 PM						Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		10	49.5	19.75				-10	49.5	29.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	19.0	26	18	24		Offense	26.9	7	6	7
Defense	26.9	7	6	7		Defense	19.0	26	18	24
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New Orleans Saints	25	26	30	3		Carolina Panthers	24	23	24	13
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Benjamin	110	57	8	824		Colston	67	41	3	634
Cotchery	63	34	0	453		Stills	57	44	3	691
Bersin	16	11	1	128		Meachem	17	5	0	85
Olsen	93	61	5	778		Graham	88	65	9	670

Quick Grind

•High Vegas total with Saints big favorites
•Is Cam healthy enough to keep the Panthers competitive?
•Depth Chart Update: Panthers will start RB Jonathan Stewart this week

Carolina Panthers

WR Kelvin Benjamin

Between the multiple drops and being blanketed by Vikings CB Xavier Rhodes, Kelvin Benjamin was lucky he even finished with 5-56 on 12 forgettable targets last week. More shutdown coverage is likely in store this week as top Saints CB Keenan Lewis will try to lock down Benjamin for the second time this season. Normally at this point I would reassure everyone that Garbage Time is Real, and Benjamin’s unique usage would mean he would be just fine… but he’s really struggled with shadow coverage at times this season, and Lewis has already won this battle once. We can’t revoke Benjamin’s ‘Weekly Tournament Play’ card just yet, but I would look elsewhere for more reliable WRs this week.

TE Greg Olsen

If Kelvin gets locked down, then it’s definitely going to be a Greg Olsen breakout game! Right? Well, it wasn’t when these teams faced in Week 9 (3-30), and the Saints are surprisingly allowing the 2nd-fewest FPPG to TEs. But the Saints also just allowed the venerable Heath Miller to navigate them for 8 catches and 82 yards. I just don’t see a scenario where the Saints are able to find a way to limit Greg Olsen so extensively again. He’ll also be kept in to block a lot less than he was in Week 9 now that the Panthers O-Line has gotten healthier. So if you’re looking for an alternative to Graham or Gronk, Greg is a viable pivot that few will target this week..

QB Cam Newton

The Saints defense is basically in shambles (8th-most FPPG allowed to QBs)… but is Cam healthy enough to exploit it? I’m going to use the same copypasta every week until we get an answer: “It wouldn’t surprise me to see him jumpstart the offense with more QB runs if his ankle(s) are feeling better, but it also wouldn’t surprise me to see him again pounded into the dirt repeatedly. If you’re willing to take the risk, few will roster Cam due to his recent performance, and he has as much theoretical upside as any QB in the NFL. Just know that his upside is limited as a purely pocket passer.” I’m more likely to pivot to other QBs that have favorable matchups with less downside and injury limitations, but Cam certainly warrants rostering in tournaments if you think you’re one week ahead of the pack in terms of predicting his health.

RB Jonathan Stewart

With no DeAngelo Williams this week, it’s The Daily Show ridin’ solo against a Saints defense that has been cracked open by RBs of late. Our own Bryan Fontaine has an excellent breakdown of Stewart in his article this week

New Orleans Saints

QB Drew Brees

Brees followed up his 420-yard, 3 TD Week 12 with a pristine 257-yard, 5 TD dismantling of the Steelers last week. He should be in for a another strong performance against the talent-deficient Panthers secondary. The Panthers grade out as the 7th-worst coverage unit and allow the 9th-most FPPG to QBs – Brees should have little trouble carving them up. The one thing that might impeded a monster effort from Brees is if the Saints again lean on the run game to wipe out their NFC South rivals. Regardless, when the biggest worry for a QB is his own running game, he’s generally going to be a great play. Brees likely won’t be as high owned as a Rodgers or Manning, but his ceiling is just as high and just as accessible. Brees is a top-3 QB play this week.

TE Jim Graham

Of course, all the buzz this week is about how Jimmy Graham was shut out (gasp!) by the Steelers last week. I’m here to talk any of last week’s Graham owners off the ledge. While the Steelers did shut down Graham, they had to commit significant defensive resources to do it – and how did that work out? Five non-Graham TDs later, and Drew Brees made the Steelers look awfully silly for committing extra defenders to the stud TE all day. I don’t think we’ll see the Panthers even attempt a similar tactic this week, nor can they – the Panthers CBs and secondary as a whole has been even worse than the Steelers thus far. And given the Saints familiarity with the Panthers defensive schemes and personnel, I don’t see Brees & Graham having much trouble navigating the coverage. Graham is right back to being a truly elite TE play.

RB #AngryIngram

Mark Ingram got back to thumping opposing defense last week, victimizing the Steelers for 122 yards on the ground. His day could have been massive if it wasn’t for Brees sniping TDs left and right through the air. This week Ingram gets a rematch with the defense he already smacked for 110 total yards and 2 TDs back in Week 9. The Panthers haven’t exactly impressed in run defense since, and now rank as the 4th-most generous defense for RBs. As I mentioned in Brees’ section, Ingram’s success is the only thing that can detract from the Saints dominating through the air; unfortunately as we saw last week, that conundrum can work the other way as well when Brees and the passing offense score at will and prevent Ingram from sniffing any goal-line work. Still, if you agree with Vegas that this one is an easy Saints win, then fire up #AngryIngram as a top-10 RB. He’ll be the one putting the game on ice.

WR Kenny Stills

The former big-play specialist has expanded his role for the Saints over the past few weeks, essentially becoming Brandin Cooks Lite now that the rookie is out for the year. Stills’ immense athleticism should be on full display this week against a Panthers defense that already allows the 8th-most FPPG to WRs and grades out as the 7th-worst coverage unit on PFF. The Panthers corners can’t hang with Stills, and the Saints WR could be in for a truly explosive day if the Panthers elect to focus their coverage on TE Jimmy Graham.

WR Marques Colston

Colston seems to be fading a bit with the emergence of Stills. He was held to just 3-16-1 on 5 targets last week and is only seeing 4-5 targets per week lately. That’s simply not enough supply to suit our needs. Colston is viable this week like any other Saints receiver… but I would much prefer to roster Stills instead.

New York Giants at Tennessee Titans

New York Giants						Tennessee Titans
Sun – 1:00 PM						LP Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		0	46	23				0	46	23
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.4	19	12	18		Offense	17.8	29	20	27
Defense	17.8	29	20	27		Defense	21.4	19	12	18
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Tennessee Titans	21	30	21	21		New York Giants	26	24	10	22
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Beckham						Wright	83	51	5	633
Randle	101	56	2	609		Washington	52	29	2	471
Parker	40	25	2	294		Hunter	67	28	3	498
Donnell	72	51	6	516		Walker	75	44	4	673

Quick Grind

•Another ugly game featuring two horrible defenses
•Avoid the Titans

NY Giants

WR Odell Beckham JR

So… Richard Sherman wasn’t able to cover ODB. And now you’re telling me that this week he’ll occasionally match up with our FAVORITE CB to pick on, Blidi Wreh-Wilson?!? Be still my beating heart!
ODB is a top-10 WR this week.

RB Rashad Jennings/Andre Williams

Jennings made good on our top-10 prediction last week as he clobbered the Jags for 26-91-2 on the ground last week. Unfortunately, Jennings has been limited with an injury since the game, and even Jennings himself has commented that he won’t be a full go this week if he plays. This is shaping up to be a worst-case scenario for us if Jennings is able to go, but is limited. That will basically cap both his and rookie RB Andre Williams’ ceiling because they’ll likely be splitting touches. Of course the better situation would be if Jennings simply didn’t play. I’m not a fan of Andre Williams’ talent, but at least we could bank on him getting the lion’s share of carries if Jennings were forced to sit. Keep an eye on this situation this weekend, because if either RB appears to have the backfield touches to themselves, the matchup alone will make them a strong play.

TE Larry ‘LEGEND’ Donnell

With the emergence of fellow Legend Odell Beckham, Larry Donnell has accepted a steadier role in the offense. Last week Donnell converted his 7 targets into a solid 5 catches for 55 yards. I would expect another solid but unspectacular showing against the Titans. They allow the 14th-most FPPG to TEs, but are so vulnerable to the run AND at the #2 CB spot that TEs just aren’t required to do much.

WR Rueben Randle

All season we’ve been using whatever WR faces Titans #2 CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson as a Matchup Hammer. But this week, we are faced with a difficult choice: roster a garbage WR in the hopes that even Rueben Randle can beat Mr Wilson with ease, or avoid the WR that will face Wilson on more snaps, and just take ODB instead! I bet you can guess which way I’m leaning. Randle is a tournament-only WR given the matchup

Tennessee Titans

The Titans Passing Attack

Prior to this week, the Titans ‘passing attack’ was already a mess. Now WR Justin Hunter is on IR. And WR Kendall Wright is unlikely to play due to a cracked bone in his hand. So the top 2 receiving weapons in an already terrible passing attack are gone. I assume the Titans will now go to battle with Nate Washington and something named Derek Hagan. Just avoid Titans WRs this week.

But while the Titans WRs look pretty gross this week, that also means that TE Delanie Walker is essentially the only aerial weapon the Titans have left. The Giants already allow the 5th-most FPPG to opposing TEs, and Walker figures to be heavily featured this week. He’s in play as a mid-range alternative to the top options.

RB Bishop Sankey

The stars seem to be aligning for Sankey to maybe, just maybe, have his first legitimate rushing performance. The Titans cupboards are bare of passing weapons. Their QB may be limited. And the Giants have been trounced on the ground of late. Is it finally Sankey’s time to shine? There are enough factors working in his favor that he becomes a viable salary relief RB

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