NFL Grind Down: Wild Card Weekend - Page 2

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2014-01-03 01:03:02

San Diego at Cincinnati

San Diego Chargers						Cincinnati Bengals
Sun – 1:05 PM ET						Paul Brown Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	46.5	19.75				-7	46.5	26.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	24.8	12	4	13		Offense	26.9	6	8	18
Defense	21.8	11	29	12		Defense	19.1	5	5	5
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Cincinnati	6	3	11	6		San Diego	22	13	28	8
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Allen	105	6.9	6.7	8.0		Green	180	11.1	13.3	10.0
Brown	69	4.3	2.7	0.0		Jones	80	5.1	7.7	7.0
Royal	67	4.5	5.0	5.0		Sanu	78	4.8	4.0	2.0
Gates	116	7.1	3.7	5.0		Gresham	66	4.7	4.0

San Diego Chargers

This is the 2nd of 3 rematches in Wild Card Weekend of teams that already played this season, with all three being played on the other team’s home field this weekend. The Chargers hosted Cincinnati back in Week 13 in a game that was expected to have a lot more fireworks than what the final 17-10 score doled out. Philip Rivers threw for 252 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT in that matchup, while Keenan Allen torched the Bengals secondary for 8 receptions and 106 yards. That big game for Allen was sandwiched in between a pair of 100+ yard receivers allowed by Cincinnati, but since Da’Rick Rogers torched them in Week 14 they have been extremely solid. Against the Steelers, Vikings and Ravens they’ve allowed only one receiver to have more than 40 yards receiving against them, and that was Antonio Brown who had 5 grabs for 66 yards and a TD. Much of the struggle that CIN dealt with in Weeks 12-14 were due to Adam Pacman Jones’s struggles on the outside. He posted a negative pass coverage rating on PFF for three consecutive weeks, and has bounced back with three consecutive positive rated performances to round out the 2013 campaign. It’s a near miracle that the Bengals defense has been able to hold anything together given its slew of injuries this season to Pro Bowl caliber players like Leon Hall and Geno Atkins.

In this weekend’s matchup, the Bengals will likely throw Pacman Jones at Allen again on the outside. In that Week 13 game, Jones was in coverage on 5 of Allen’s 10 targets and Keenan reeled in all 5 of those passes for 71 receiving yards. George Iloka and Terrance Newman picked up the rest of Allen’s 10 targets, but the status on Newman is very much up in the air this week as he hasn’t played since Week 14. Beyond Keenan, the Chargers really don’t have a stacked set of receivers for Philip Rivers to throw at. The target breakdown continues to be about 8-10 throws at Keenan and then between 4 and 6 targets for the likes of Gates, Royal and Woodhead. Woodhead actually finished the season as the 3rd most targeted weapon for Rivers, but he wasn’t able to get anything going against CIN the first time around and caught just 2 passes in that one for 13 yards. That may change this weekend though, as one weakness in this Bengals defense has been against pass catching RBs over the last few weeks. In that game vs. San Diego in Week 13, it was surprisingly Ryan Mathews who had a big receiving day with 5 receptions for 31 yards. In Week 14, Trent Richardson took them for 5 receptions and 68 yards followed by 5 catches and 50 yards to Le’Veon Bell. Then last weekend Ray Rice pulled in 7 catches of his own for 35 yards. Taking out the game against Minnesota, a team that uses very little screen game to begin with, the Bengals have averaged over 5 catches allowed to opposing RBs in the last 4 games.

In 2013 Ryan Mathews had the breakout season that many had given up predicting this season, posting 1244 rushing yards and 6 rush touchdowns. He’s had at least 99 yards rushing in each of his last 4 games and is as hot as any running back not named McCoy coming into wild card weekend. The matchup is tough here though, as the Bengals haven’t given up anything on the ground over the last 6 games. Their biggest struggle has been the a fore mentioned screen game, but rush yards have been hard to come by against this front seven:

• Week 13 vs. Ryan Mathews – 14 carries, 61 RuYd, 0 RuTD
• Week 14 vs. Richardson/Brown – 10 carries, 31 RuYd, 0 RuTD
• Week 15 vs. Le’Veon Bell – 24 carries, 57 RuYd, 1 RuTD
• Week 16 vs. Adrian Peterson – 11 carries, 45 RuYd, 0 RuTD
• Week 17 vs. Ray Rice – 6 carries, 15 RuYd, 0 RuTD

Mathews may have the hot hand, but he’ll be running right into the teeth of this defense and we should see just how much improved he is this season come Sunday afternoon.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have won four of their last five games heading into the playoffs dating back to a Week 13 victory in San Diego. Before Week 17, the turnover prone Andy Dalton had thrown just 1 INT over a 4 game span. In Week 17 though he was picked 4 times by the Ravens secondary, a couple of which were on just awful decisions. Still, he’s posted 19+ fantasy points in four consecutive games and that includes a pair of 30+ fantasy point efforts. He’s been up and down all year, so the big fantasy line combined with the 4 INTs from Week 17 definitely concerns me as far as which direction he’s trending coming into this game. The big weapon on the outside for Dalton is obviously A.J. Green, who finished the year with 98 catches on 178 targets for 1426 yards and 11 TDs. In Week 13 at San Diego, Green posted 5 receptions for 83 yards and a score, but was targeted just 7 times, which ties for the 2nd fewest he saw all season. Green was double teamed or shaded towards for most of the game by free safety Eric Weddle, who picked Dalton off on one forced heave down the field towards Green. The only play where Green really contributed was when the Bengals were able to find a mismatch in one on one coverage against Marcus Gilchrist and Dalton found Green for a 21 yard score. Green also saw 43 of his 83 net receiving yards come after the catch, which was the highest percentage of his total receiving yards coming after the catch for any game this season (over 50% of his yards contributed came after the catch). Green is mostly a downfield threat, with an average depth of target of 14.1 yards according to PFF, so having a Pro Bowl quality free safety like Weddle really bottles Green up. Weddle finished the 2013 year as the 7th highest rated safety in pass coverage ratings on ProFootballFocus, and Green played four games against teams with safeties with coverage ratings equal to or higher than Weddle on the season:

The splits are pretty drastically different when Green is unable to get downfield for that big play, which means that Dalton will likely have to rely more heavily on some of his short range receivers like Mohamed Sanu, RB Giovani Bernard and TE Jermaine Gresham. Dalton in general likes to try and throw downfield more often than not, which explains the struggles he had against this SD secondary the first time around. Overall, the Chargers have allowed the 4th fewest FPPG to opposing QBs over their last 5 games and the 14th fewest to WRs over that span as well, so they are definitely trending upwards after a bumpy start to the season.

The rushing game is what won the Bengals this Week 13 matchup vs. SDC, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis rushed for 92 yards and a TD on 20 carries with Gio Bernard chipping in 57 rush yards of his own on 14 touches. The Chargers front seven has been hit or miss in recent weeks, allowing 4 of the last 6 RB1’s they’ve faced to go over 80 yards rushing with a TD, but the other two (Knowshon Moreno and Rashad Jennings) were held to 19 and 45 rushing yards respectively. The difference being that neither the Broncos or Raiders committed to the run, and those two backs only totaled 18 carries against San Diego. Cincinnati will definitely commit more to the run and give plenty of touches to both the Law Firm and Bernard against a rush defense that rates out as the 6th worst in the NFL in run stopping on ProFootballFocus.

SD @ CIN – Daily Fantasy Relevant

• Philip Rivers – Rivers is priced between the 5th and 7th highest QB on the sites for Wild Card weekend, and the matchup gives you a lot of reasons to avoid him. Since there are only 8 QBs to pick from, you could certainly make an argument for him being a contrarian pick but I definitely worry about his lack of weapons against one of the best secondaries in football.

• Ryan Mathews – The one place where Mathews jumps out to me is at DraftStreet where he’s only $8.6k. Considering you can get away with having a back who isn’t all that involved in the passing game with their .5 PPR scoring format, Matthews has to be one of the safest and strongest plays there this weekend.

• Danny Woodhead – Woodhead is the better PPR play between himself and Mathews, and the Bengals have struggled at times stopping RBs out of the backfield. He’s price dependent but on DK at $5.2K he can hit value pretty easily.

• Keenan Allen – Allen might be a bit overpriced across the board, but he’ll likely again be Rivers’ most targeted option and has been used a ton in the red zone. The matchup is tough here so I’d leave him for tournaments only.

• Antonio Gates – Gates found the end zone for the first time since Week 11 last Sunday but has looked pretty sluggish on the field for the most part. It’s the playoffs though so expect any signs of fatigue to be long gone and his $4.8K tag on FD and $7K tag on DS is cheap enough to take a flyer on. Ladarius Green could also be argued for as a punt TE option, but his targets have been trending in the wrong direction over the last 5-6 weeks.

• Andy Dalton – Dalton has a good matchup but there are concerns related to the matchup as I broke down above. I would rank him below Andrew Luck on Sunday, meaning he has good relative value on DD, SS and FTD.

• Giovani Bernard – Gio is a strong PPR option like Woodhead, and his red zone touches make him a good bet to find the end zone on any given weekend. For $5K on DK, he’s an absolute steal and the same goes for $92K on Feud and $9K on FTD. His best value though might be at $10.2K on DD.

• BenJarvus Green-Ellis – There are only 2 places I’d consider using BJGE as a punt RB and that’s on DS at $5.6K and DD at $5.7K.

• A.J. Green – He’s the priciest WR on the board this weekend and I think the matchup might be a little harder than it looks to be on paper. I’d leave him for tournaments only given the price tag, but he always has the upside to go for 125+ receiving yards and a TD.

• Marvin Jones – Jones might be my favorite PPR value receiver of the weekend. He’s locked in for 7-9 targets from Dalton and has 5 or more receptions for 48+ yards in each of his last three games. Oh and he’s only $3.8K on DK and $8.4K on DD, both of which award the full point per reception.

• Jermaine Gresham – With Eifert looking unlikely to play, Gresham could see an uptick in targets that would increase his value a lot. Dalton likes to use his tight ends in the red zone and Gresham is a nice punt TE who could find pay dirt. I really like his $3.7K price point on DK and $7.1K tag on DD.

San Francisco at Green Bay

San Francisco 49ers						Green Bay Packers
Sun – 4:40 PM ET						Lambeau Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-2.5	48.5	25.5				2.5	48.5	23
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	25.4	11	30	3		Offense	26.1	8	6	7
Defense	17.0	3	7	4		Defense	26.8	24	24	25
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Green Bay	24	25	21	24		San Francisco	4	7	8	12
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Boldin	130	8.1	8.7	11.0		Nelson	126	7.9	10.0	16.0
Crabtree	33	6.6	7.0	8.0		Jones	93	6.6	8.7	7.0
Patton	5	0.8	1.5	3.0		Cobb	46	7.8	2.0	2.0
Davis	84	5.6	5.0	5.0		Quarless	54	3.3	5.3	6.0

It’s worth noting that record cold weather is expected in Green Bay on Sunday. Both of these teams play in a fair amount of cold weather so it shouldn’t have too much of an impact, but it’s worth monitoring as the game gets closer

San Francisco 49ers

The last game of Wild Card weekend is the one I expect to have the most fantasy goodness. The 49ers come into this contest coming off an impressive late game win over the division rival Cardinals. They’ll take on a Packers defense that has been an absolute joke in recent weeks and has flown under the radar as one of the best teams to target players going against. Much had been said about the Bears awful rush defense heading into Week 17, but the Packers haven’t been much better and Frank Gore could have a field day come Sunday. Just take a look at the last 6 games for RBs vs. Green Bay:

• Week 12 (MIN) – Peterson – 32 RuAtt, 146 RuYd, 4.56 YPC, 1 RuTD, 1 Rec, 2 RecYd, 0 RecTD, 21.3 FP
• Week 13 (DET) – Bush – 20 RuAtt, 117 RuYd, 5.85 YPC, 1 RuTD, 5 Rec, 65 RecYd, 0 RecTD, 26.7 FP
• Week 14 (ATL) – Jackson – 15 RuAtt, 71 RuYd, 4.73 YPC, 0 RuTD, 1 Rec, 9 RecYd, 0 RecTD, 8.5 FP
• Week 15 (DAL) – Murray – 18 RuAtt, 134 RuYd, 7.44 YPC, 1 RuTD, 4 Rec, 19 RecYd, 0 RecTD, 23.3 FP
• Week 16 (PIT) – Bell – 26 RuAtt, 124 RuYd, 4.77 YPC, 1 RuTD, 1 Rec, 5 RecYd, 0 RecTD, 19.4 FP
• Week 17 (CHI) – Forte – 22 RuAtt, 110 RuYd, 5 YPC, 2 RuTD, 4 Rec, 47 RecYd, 1 RecTD, 35.7 FP

That’s 5 100+ yard rushers allowed with 6 total rushing touchdowns in that span against Green Bay. They’ve allowed the 4th most FPPG to opposing RBs over both the last 5 weeks and 3 week splits. Gore on the other hand came into Week 17 with 110, 86 and 97 rush yards in a three week span before getting stuffed up by a tough ARI front seven for just 14 yards on 13 carries. The Packers front seven won’t offer nearly as much resistance and he is likely the best running back option behind Charles and McCoy for Wild Card Weekend.

The 49ers should be able to find success in the passing game as well and in the Week 1 matchup between these teams, both Anquan Boldin and Colin Kaepernick had their best fantasy games of the season. Kaep posted 30.7 fantasy points while throwing for 412 yards and 3 scores with Boldin hauling in 208 of those yards on 13 catches with a touchdown. Anquan is coming on strong down the stretch, much like he did a year ago, with 15 catches for 221 yards and 2 TDs over the last two games. Much of the talk in the 49ers passing game has been about Michael Crabtree since he came back, but Boldin seems to have benefitted as well by having another receiver for defenses to key on against San Fran. Boldin should have the better matchup advantage in this game though, as the Packers have struggled mightily against physical receivers such as Boldin, Megatron, Brandon Marshall and Dez Bryant. The Packers have allowed the 7th most FPPG to opposing WRs over the last 5 games and 10th most over the last 3 games. They’ve also allowed the 10th most to QBs over the last 5 games and 7th most over their past three, with 5 consecutive quarterbacks posting multi-passing touchdown games against their secondary.

Green Bay Packers

Green Bay sneaks into the playoffs thanks to a miracle toss downfield to a wide open Randall Cobb in the late stages of their Week 17 game against the Bears. Rodgers was up and down in that game, which should be expected of someone who missed 7 straight games leading up to Week 17. He threw for 318 yards and 2 scores with 2 INTs, one of which was an awful turnover in the red zone. Both touchdowns went to Randall Cobb though, who the Packers used very sparingly in that game. Cobb played on just 37 of 78 offensive snaps, but was productive when in by hauling in both of his targets for 2 receptions, 55 yards and 2 touchdowns. Cobb will likely be incorporated more into the offense this week and since it’s the playoffs, don’t be surprised if he plays closer to 80% of offensive snaps. Overall, Rodgers return was the best news for Mr. Jordy Nelson who saw a season high 16 targets, bringing in 10 of them for 161 receiving yards. Nelson had disappeared with Matt Noodle Arm Flynn at the helm, so it was no surprise that the return of Rodgers immediately increased his productivity. Rodgers also targeted James Jones 7 times, Jarrett Boykin 4 times, and Andrew Quarless 6 times.

As far as the matchup goes, the roar of the 49ers secondary has been quieted to a faint whisper over the past couple of weeks as both Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer have methodically torn them apart.

• Week 16 vs. ATL – Matt Ryan – 348 PaYd, 2 PaTD, 2 INT
• Week 17 vs. ARI – Carson Palmer – 407 PaYd, 2 PaTD, 1 INT

Similarly, opposing receivers have fared well against San Fran in those games:

• Week 16 – Roddy White – 12 Rec, 141 RecYd, 1 RecTD
• Week 16 – Tony Gonzalez – 8 Rec, 63 RecYd, 1 RecTD
• Week 17 – Larry Fitzgerald – 6 Rec, 113 RecYd, 0 RecTD
• Week 17 – Andre Roberts – 6 Rec, 91 RecYd, 0 RecTD
• Week 17 – Rob Housler – 5 Rec, 78 RecYd, 0 RecTD

WRs have scored the 3rd most FPPG against the 49ers over the last three weeks and perhaps most surprising is that TE’s have scored more fantasy points against San Fran than any other team in that three week span. Against Tight Ends, the 49ers have allowed 3 receiving touchdowns and each opposing TE1 to have at least 5 receptions for 60 yards. A huge reason for all the receiving success against San Fran over the last two weeks has been the struggles of Tramaine Brock, who has been thrown at 21 times and allowed 228 receiving yards on 12 catches with 2 TDs in those two contests according to PFF coverage stats. Rodgers and company should throw a ton this game, as yards on the ground will be hard to come by against a front seven allowing the 2nd fewest FPPG to RBs over the last 5 weeks.

SF @ GB – Daily Fantasy Relevant

• Colin Kaepernick – Kaep is my favorite pound for pound play this weekend as his price tag sits as the 6th highest QB on 5 of the 7 sites. On DD and SS he’s the 4th highest priced QB, but I’d even consider him there given this matchup. For $13.3K on DS, $7.8K on DK and even $8.1K on FD he’s a steal.

• Frank Gore – Gore has the best matchup of all RBs this weekend and a reasonable enough price point across the board to be rostered in all formats. He’s under $10K on DS, $6.1K on FD and best of all, just $5.5K on DK.

• Anquan Boldin – Boldin is priced at right around 10% of the overall salary cap on most sites this weekend and he is one of the best options at WR available. He torched GB earlier this season and has come on strong in the late stages of 2013. It doesn’t hurt that he proved last year he could step up in big games either.

• Michael Crabtree – Crabtree has seen 29 total targets over his last four games, but has double digit fantasy points in just two of those. He seems like a play best left for tournaments and is reasonably priced at $8K on DS, $5.6K on FD and $5.2K on DK.

• Vernon Davis – The drop off from Graham to Vernon is huge, but I’d leave Davis for tournaments only this weekend. He had 24.8 FP in the Week 1 game vs. GB, but also has 6 games under 10 fantasy points on the year and disappears at times in this offense.

• Aaron Rodgers – The top-3 priced QBs are locked in place across all seven sites, with Rodgers being the 3rd highest across the board. He’s $4K less than Brees on DraftStreet and as I mentioned above, the 49ers secondary hasn’t exactly been shutting down opponent’s passing games in the last couple weeks.

• Eddie Lacy – The only place where Lacy is probably an option is at $10K on DS since his price tag has been deflated based on the tough matchup. Other than that, I don’t like paying top-3 RB money for him when there are better talents just above him and better matchups below his price.

• Jordy Nelson – Nelson’s price tag is a significant drop off from A.J. Green and now that Rodgers is healthy again his ceiling returns to the 25-30 fantasy point range. The 49ers have allowed some huge games to WRs in the last couple of weeks and Nelson could be the next to torch them.

• Randall Cobb – Cobb was priced way up this week on a few sites, so he’s a price-specific option only on Wild Card Weekend. For $6K on DK, $10.4K on SS and $9.8K on DS I’d definitely take a flyer.

• Andrew Quarless – Quarless is the cheapest TE on average across the board on Sunday and faces a 49ers defense that has been hapless against the tight end over the last three weeks, allowing the most FPPG to TE’s in that span. He saw 6 targets in Week 17 from Rodgers and is a fantastic punt TE on DraftStreet at $2.7K or just above min priced at $3.3K on DK.

Sunday Games – Saturday Games