2023 NFL MVP Odds: Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy Emerge Favorites
Entering NFL Week 14, the betting market is at an inflection point regarding the league’s race for MVP.
Following an Eagles loss to the 49ers in Week 13, Brock Purdy has emerged as a co-favorite alongside Dak Prescott as the front-runner for the award. This weekend, Prescott and the Cowboys will host the Eagles, giving Prescott a prime opportunity to establish himself as the odds-on favorite with a strong performance in a winning effort. However, a loss likely eliminates him from the conversation for a variety of reasons.
Below, we take a look at current NFL MVP odds, followed by the case for and against each of the top two MVP candidates heading into Week 14, in a race that is far from finished due to the lack of a consensus favorite.
2023 NFL MVP Odds (Week 14)
- Dak Prescott +300
- Brock Purdy +300
- Jalen Hurts +350
- Patrick Mahomes +700
- Tua Tagovailoa +950
- Lamar Jackson +950
- Tyreek Hill +1500
- CJ Stroud +2800
- Josh Allen +3000
- Christian McCaffrey +3000
Why Dak Prescott (+300) is the MVP
Simply put, Dak Prescott has been the most productive quarterback in the NFL since Week 6, and it’s not particularly close. During that stretch, he leads the league in EPA/play (.368) and success rate (55.7%) while ranking 5th in air yards per attempt (9.0). Dallas is 6-1 as a team in those seven games, having scored at least 33 points five times.
Perhaps most impressive is the fact that Prescott has the 3rd-highest aDOT of any quarterback in the league from a clean pocket since Week 6, while simultaneously having the 6th-fewest turnover-worthy plays. Prescott owns a 21-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio since losing to the 49ers, which has elevated him to the league-lead in touchdown passes for the season.
If he beats the Eagles on Sunday, his remaining schedule against the Bills, Dolphins, Lions, and Commanders gives him as good of a chance as anyone to come away with the award.
The Case Against Prescott
The MVP award is given for a body of work in totality, not a sample that excludes the first five games of the season. We cannot ignore the fact that Prescott threw for only 153 passing yards in a 42-10 loss to the 49ers in Week 5, nor can we ignore the fact that Prescott ranked 11th out of 33 qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play and 14th in success rate through the first five weeks of the campaign.
Some pundits will also use a soft schedule to make a case against Prescott, judging from the fact that the Cowboys have played only two teams thus far that appear on track to make the postseason. The Cowboys are 0-2 in those games, and Prescott has a 4-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the losses.
Why Brock Purdy (+300) is the MVP
The primary argument for Prescott is the fact that he has been utterly dominant since Week 6, but so has Brock Purdy – only without the nadir during the first five weeks of the season. Since Week 6, Purdy ranks 2nd among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play, and 2nd in success rate, with only his 14th-ranked air yards being a significant separator from Prescott. From Week 1 to Week 5, while Prescott ranked outside of the top-10 in most meaningful quarterback metrics, Purdy ranked 1st in EPA/play, 1st in success rate, and averaged more air yards than Prescott.
In contrast to Prescott, who has yet to beat a formidable opponent in 2023, Purdy has wins against the Jaguars, Seahawks, and Eagles by a combined 72 points. In those three games, Purdy threw for 8 touchdowns and only one interception. His resume is strong.
The Case Against Purdy
As of right now, there is no strong argument against Purdy winning the league’s MVP award – at least not one that is grounded in data. The primary hurdle for him winning the award is the fact that he is not a formerly highly touted draft pick and is thus viewed as a systems quarterback that is along for the ride, rather than the guy sitting in the driver’s seat for the 49ers offense. Public perception matters significantly when looking at player awards, which is why Purdy is not currently the odds-on favorite, only a co-favorite.
How to Approach Betting on NFL MVP
Though Jalen Hurts is still lurking in the top-three cluster at most sportsbooks, it is extremely difficult to see him garnering any serious support down the homestretch of the regular season, especially if the Eagles lose to the Cowboys this weekend. Prescott and Purdy have outclassed Hurts in nearly every meaningful quarterback metric, not counting tush-pushes.
In recent weeks, we have teased Prescott to win NFL MVP at 20:1 and 15:1. If sitting on one of those tickets, it is likely best to ride out Week 14 without making any additional investments in the MVP market. If Prescott and the Cowboys beat the Eagles, Prescott almost certainly will move to a consensus favorite. Other than a Week 16 matchup on the road against the Dolphins, Prescott has no difficult matchups remaining on his schedule either, making it unlikely that he falls from grace during the final month of the regular season.
Purdy and the 49ers have only one tough game remaining on their schedule as well, against the Ravens, but he is unlikely to be able to overcome negative public perception without a couple more dominating performances down the stretch. The 49ers have the league’s best running back, an elite defense, and tremendously skilled players after the catch – all of which will be used against him when the votes are cast.
Final Thoughts on Current MVP Odds
If sitting on a Prescott MVP ticket at 20:1 or 15:1, ride out Week 14 and hope that the Cowboys beat the Eagles. Worst case scenario, Purdy should still be at plus money as a viable hedge option heading into Week 15.
If currently not invested in the NFL MVP market, purchasing a ticket on both Prescott (+300) and Purdy (+300) is likely to result in profit as this is shaping up to be a two-man race, with little competition from the rest of the field.
Note: The best price for Dak Prescott, as of Thursday morning, is +350 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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