NFL Pick'em Pool Week 12 Confidence Rankings and Picks (2021)
After going 10-6 in both Week 1 and Week 2, we delivered a 15-1 Week 3 performance. We regressed slightly in Week 4 due to some late-week injuries and a few very surprising upsets, but rebounded for a strong 13-3 outing, including hitting each of our top 10 confidence plays in Week 5. We stayed hot with a 9-5 record in Week 6 and a 10-3 showing in Week 7. We had a disappointing 8-7 showing in Week 8. Despite three major upsets in Week 9, we still managed to post a 9-5 record. In Week 10, we finally had our first losing week, owing to the fact that there were a number of late-week injury reports that went against our Thursday expectations. In Week 11, we returned to having a winning week, even though late-week injuries continue to be a problem late in the season. In Week 12, we are looking for our first 10-win week since Week 7! NFL Pick’em selections!
There are multiple formats for pick’em tournaments, including the picking against the spread and ranking selections in confidence intervals. In this column, we will touch on both the classic style and picking against the spread each week.
I will start by ranking each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks. Also, don’t miss my Week 11 if you’re still alive in your eliminator pools!
NFL Week 12 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings
Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 13-3
- Week 6: 9-5
- Week 7: 10-3
- Week 8: 8-7
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 5-8-1
- Week 11: 8-7
Week 12 Selections
Dallas Cowboys
New England Patriots
Buffalo Bills
Baltimore Ravens
Chicago Bears
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Los Angeles Chargers
Philadelphia Eagles
Los Angeles Rams
Houston Texans
Cincinnati Bengals
Seattle Seahawks
San Francisco 49ers
Carolina Panthers
Jacksonville Jaguars
Cowboys (vs. Raiders)
Per Pro Football Focus, 32 of the 37 rushing yards that Josh Jacobs totaled in Week 11 came after contact. The Raiders have one of the worst offensive lines in the league, which is making it extremely difficult for this group to generate offense on a consistent basis. Las Vegas has scored 16 points or fewer in three consecutive games, and they have allowed 73 points combined in their last two games—both of which came at home. On a short week, traveling to Dallas, this defense is unlikely to see drastic improvements. Though the Cowboys have been inconsistent of late, Dallas is a strong play in pick’em pools on Thanksgiving.
Patriots (vs. Titans)
We have been on the Mac Jones hype train since the preseason, when we encouraged bettors to place a wager on Jones to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at +450 odds. On Sunday, New England has a good opportunity to extend their current win streak to six games when they host the Tennessee Titans, one of the most overrated teams in the NFL. Ryan Tannehill has only 13 touchdowns against 12 interceptions in 2021. His 53.9 QBR ranks 14th in the league amongst qualified signal callers. On the defensive side of the ball, there are strong arguments to be made that the Patriots have the best unit in the entire NFL. Opposing quarterbacks have a dreadful 71.2 passer rating and a 59.6 completion percentage against the Patriots this season. The Patriots are a strong play in this one.
Bills (vs. Saints)
The injuries are beginning to pile up for the New Orleans Saints as the calendar prepares to flip to December. In addition to using a backup quarterback, the Saints are also likely to be without both of their top two running back options on Thursday. Alvin Kamara has already been ruled out, and Mark Ingram II is trending towards being inactive. In their absence, New Orleans has no active running backs on the roster with more than 79 yards on the ground this fall. Factor in that the Saints have one of the worst run-blocking offensive lines in the NFL and it becomes difficult to see how this team is going to score points in this one. Buffalo has lost a lot of bettors’ trust in recent weeks following an inexplicable loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars and a 26-point defeat at home to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 11. However, this is still an extremely talented team with a stout defense. This is a great opportunity for the Bills to get back in the win column.
Ravens (vs. Browns)
Playing at home in Week 11, the Cleveland Browns only defeated Tim Boyle by three points. Baker Mayfield is playing through numerous injuries, which is clearly impacting his ability to make accurate throws on the football field. Even with a great offensive line and a capable defense, this is a Cleveland team that is dealing with an abundance of problems. As long as Lamar Jackson returns to the field for Baltimore this Sunday, this is a game that is going to be extremely difficult for the injury-plagued Browns to win.
Bears (vs. Lions)
Believing in the Bears is a dangerous place to put oneself, but this is a great spot to buy-low on Chicago. Despite Justin Fields and Allen Robinson being out of the lineup on Thanksgiving, this is a team that is capable of pulling off a road win against a division foe. Andy Dalton is far from an elite quarterback, but he is a capable game manager, who is talented enough to make a big-time throw once or twice throughout the course of a game. At minimum, Dalton is better than Tim Boyle, who threw for only 91 yards and two interceptions in his first career start last Sunday. Chicago has a slightly better defense, and the better quarterback in this one. Detroit has yet to win a game this fall. That is unlikely to change in Week 12.
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