NFL Pick'em Pool Week 14 Confidence Rankings and Picks (2021)
After going 10-6 in both Week 1 and Week 2, we delivered a 15-1 Week 3 performance. We regressed slightly in Week 4 due to some late-week injuries and a few very surprising upsets, but rebounded for a strong 13-3 outing, including hitting each of our top 10 confidence plays in Week 5. We stayed hot with a 9-5 record in Week 6 and a 10-3 showing in Week 7. We had a disappointing 8-7 showing in Week 8. Despite three major upsets in Week 9, we still managed to post a 9-5 record. In Week 10, we finally had our first losing week, owing to the fact that there were a number of late-week injury reports that went against our Thursday expectations. In Week 11, we returned to having a winning week, even though late-week injuries continue to be a problem late in the season. In Week 12, we once again were burned by some late-week injury news in Dallas and Los Angeles, but still managed to hit successfully on five of our top six confidence plays. Better health around the league in Week 13 resulted in a strong 11-3 showing. We will hope for good fortune on the injury report once again with our Week 14 analysis below! NFL Pick’em selections!
There are multiple formats for pick’em tournaments, including the picking against the spread and ranking selections in confidence intervals. In this column, we will touch on both the classic style and picking against the spread each week.
I will start by ranking each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks. Also, don’t miss my Week 14 Survivor Guide if you’re still alive in your eliminator pools!
NFL Week 14 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings
Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 13-3
- Week 6: 9-5
- Week 7: 10-3
- Week 8: 8-7
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 5-8-1
- Week 11: 8-7
- Week 12: 7-8
- Week 13: 11-3
Week 14 Selections
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Denver Broncos
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5. Minnesota Vikings
6. Los Angeles Chargers
7. Kansas City Chiefs
8. Los Angeles Rams
9. Dallas Cowboys
10. San Francisco 49ers
11. Seattle Seahawks
12. Tennessee Titans
13. Carolina Panthers
14. New Orleans Saints
Packers (vs. Bears)
In Week 6, Aaron Rodgers made headlines when he shouted “I own you” towards the Chicago Bears fans after scoring a late touchdown. Nothing he said was untrue. Rodgers is 20-7 against the spread and 22-5 straight up when playing Chicago in his career. The Packers are a team with Super Bowl aspirations, and are only getting healthier by the week on the defensive side of the ball. The Bears are dealing with a myriad of injuries and still have a lack of talent in their locker room. Green Bay should roll in this one.
Ravens (vs. Browns)
An underdog as my second-most confident play this week? An underdog coming off of an embarrassing loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers? Yes. Lamar Jackson threw four interceptions when these teams played two weeks ago, but Baltimore still managed to escape with a 16-10 victory over the Cleveland Browns. During their bye week, there were reports that Cleveland is experimenting with James Hudson at right tackle for this matchup. The Browns have a quarterback dealing with ailments all over his body, a banged-up offensive line, and a lack of consistency on the defensive side of the ball. Until the Browns show they can beat the Ravens, bettors would be wise to ride the trend of recent success here.
Broncos (vs. Lions)
The Denver Broncos are far from an elite team, but they are well-coached and fundamentally sound. Earlier this week, Ari Meirov reported that the Detroit Lions had a flu bug going around the locker room, causing Jared Goff, Penei Sewell, Michael Brockers, Jonah Jackson, John Penisini, and Nick Williams to miss practice. Detroit is coming off of a thrilling victory–their first of the season. No longer trying to break their winless streak, coupled with the fact that they are dealing with missed practice and potential missing players for Sunday–bettors should look at Denver to win this game with ease.
Buccaneers (vs. Bills)
When in doubt, trust Tom Brady. Even if you don’t agree with that statement, it is hard to deny that it is becoming increasingly difficult for bettors to have faith in Josh Allen. Over his last five games, Allen has a pedestrian 9-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and has led his team to only two wins during that stretch. One of those losses was an inexplicably poor performance from the Bills, who scored only six points in a defeat to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Brady and the Buccaneers have established a strong running game in recent weeks. Tampa Bay is also getting healthier on the defensive side of the ball. The Buccaneers are the smart play here.
Vikings (vs. Steelers)
The market is overreacting to the fact that the Minnesota Vikings lost to the Detroit Lions last week on a walk-off touchdown. While unfortunate, it does not spell doom for this Vikings franchise, or for their playoff hopes. In a crowded NFC playoff picture, Minnesota still has plenty to play for this week and going forward. The Vikings have the better quarterback and the better defense in this contest, not to mention home field advantage. The Vikings are a stronger play than the spread suggests this evening.
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