NFL Pick'em Pool Week 18 Confidence Rankings and Picks (2021)
After going 10-6 in both Week 1 and Week 2, we delivered a 15-1 Week 3 performance. We regressed slightly in Week 4 due to some late-week injuries and a few very surprising upsets, but rebounded for a strong 13-3 outing, including hitting each of our top 10 confidence plays in Week 5. We stayed hot with a 9-5 record in Week 6 and a 10-3 showing in Week 7. We had a disappointing 8-7 showing in Week 8. Despite three major upsets in Week 9, we still managed to post a 9-5 record. In Week 10, we finally had our first losing week, owing to the fact that there were a number of late-week injury reports that went against our Thursday expectations. In Week 11, we returned to having a winning week, even though late-week injuries continue to be a problem late in the season. In Week 12, we once again were burned by some late-week injury news in Dallas and Los Angeles, but still managed to hit successfully on five of our top six confidence plays. Better health around the league in Week 13 resulted in a strong 11-3 showing. We stayed hot in Week 14, delivering a 12-2 result. In Week 15 and Week 16, we delivered back-to-back 11-win performances! We had good fortune on the injury report once again with our Week 17 analysis, resulting in 13 wins!
Below, we will do our best to navigate the Week 18 chaos to cap off a strong 2021 NFL Pick’em season! NFL Pick’em selections! I will start by ranking each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
NFL Week 18 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings
Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 13-3
- Week 6: 9-5
- Week 7: 10-3
- Week 8: 8-7
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 5-8-1
- Week 11: 8-7
- Week 12: 7-8
- Week 13: 11-3
- Week 14: 12-2
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 11-5
- Week 17: 13-3
Week 18 Selections
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. Buffalo Bills
4. Tennessee Titans
5. Los Angeles Rams
6. Los Angeles Chargers
7. Dallas Cowboys
8. Pittsburgh Steelers
9. New England Patriots
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
11. Detroit Lions
12. Arizona Cardinals
13. Minnesota Vikings
14. Washington Football Team
15. Atlanta Falcons
16. Cleveland Browns
Chiefs (vs. Broncos)
If Kansas City wins this contest, they are guaranteed to either be the first or second seed in the AFC playoffs. From a motivational perspective, the Chiefs have far more to play for on Saturday, compared to the Broncos, who are mathematically eliminated from postseason contention. In addition to the motivation factor, the Broncos are dealing with a number of injuries to key members of their secondary – including cornerback Pat Surtain II, safety Kareem Jackson, and cornerback Ronald Darby. Kansas City is healthier and has more to play for in Week 18. Expect the Chiefs to roll to an easy victory.
Colts (vs. Jaguars)
We have seen an abundance of surprising upsets during the final week of the NFL regular season in recent years. However, it would be shocking if Indianapolis managed to lose in this spot. The Colts are presented with a classic “win and you’re in” situation on Sunday against a Jacksonville Jaguars team that lost by 40 points to the New England Patriots in Week 17. The Jaguars are allowing 4.3 yards-per-carry on the ground in 2021. A heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor, coupled with a clean performance from Carson Wentz, should be more than enough to secure a victory for the road favorites.
Bills (vs. Jets)
Similar to our top two pick’em selections for this week, the large spread in this matchup has a considerable amount to do with motivation. Buffalo will clinch the AFC East with a victory over the New York Jets on Sunday. Buffalo can also still attain the three seed in the AFC playoffs with a Cincinnati Bengals loss, which is a realistic possibility with Joe Burrow on the sidelines this weekend. The Jets played tough against a banged-up Tampa Bay Buccaneers team at home in Week 17, but it is unlikely that this underwhelming roster has enough in them to pull an upset against a Super Bowl contender with plenty of incentive to win this game.
Titans (vs. Texans)
It is well documented that motivation is often overvalued at sportsbooks during the final week of the NFL regular season. However, this is a spot where it is likely justified. The Titans are somehow in position to secure the top seed in the AFC postseason with a victory, which also secures a first round bye. More than any team in football, Tennessee could benefit from gaining an extra week of rest to incorporate Derrick Henry back into the lineup. The Houston Texans embarrassed the Titans earlier this season, pulling an upset as a double-digit underdog. It is unlikely that bettors see that happen twice in one year, involving the same teams. Expect a Tennessee win on Sunday.
Rams (vs. 49ers)
Matthew Stafford has been undeniably awful in recent weeks, totaling six interceptions across his last three games played. Whereas some bettors might see cause for concern, I see cause for positive regression to the mean. Stafford ranks second in the NFL this year in passing yards and passing touchdowns. He also ranks fourth in QBR amongst qualified signal callers. Stafford did not regress from an elite quarterback to an abysmal quarterback overnight. The San Francisco 49ers have one of the most exploitable secondary units in the league, permitting 7.1 yards-per-attempt through the air. The Rams have an opportunity to clinch the NFC West with a win in this one–they should be focused and ready to get the job done.
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