NFL Player Props for Panthers vs. Buccaneers and Seahawks vs. 49ers (1/3)
What kind of performances can we expect on Saturday from Bryce Young, Brock Purdy, and AJ Barner? Follow along as our NFL betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets for Panthers vs. Buccaneers and Seahawks vs. 49ers. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more NFL plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Saturday’s 2-game NFL slate features a pair of marquee matchups – both of which have massive playoff implications.
At 4:30 p.m. ET, the Panthers and the Buccaneers will meet, with the Panthers having an opportunity to secure an NFC South division title with a win. Tampa Bay needs a win and a Saints loss on Sunday to make it back to the postseason.
At 8:00 p.m. ET, the Seahawks and 49ers will fight for the No. 1 playoff seed in the NFC playoffs, which includes home-field advantage until the Super Bowl. The loser will be forced to play on the road on Wild Card weekend.
Looking at the NFL odds for Saturday, the market is expecting a pair of competitive games, with the Buccaneers and Seahawks both favored by a field goal or less as of this writing.
Below, you can find three of my favorite player props for Panthers vs. Buccaneers and Seahawks vs. 49ers!
Editor’s Note: Don’t live in a state with sports betting? Use our Underdog promo code & PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS to unlock generous sign-up bonuses for fantasy pick’em contests today.
Best NFL Player Props for Panthers vs. Buccaneers and Seahawks vs. 49ers
Here are my top player prop bets, with kickoff scheduled for 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, January 3rd:
- Bryce Young Over/Under 201.5 Passing Yards
- Brock Purdy Over/Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
- AJ Barner Over/Under 38.5 Receiving Yards
Bryce Young OVER 201.5 Passing Yards (-115, BetMGM)
In 12 games that CB Jamel Dean has played at least 34 snaps this season, Tampa Bay’s pass defense ranks 12th in EPA/dropback, 12th in DVOA, and 11th in explosive play% allowed. In the team’s other 4 games, their pass defense ranks 30th in EPA/dropback and 28th in DVOA.
In those 4 games, they have allowed 31 points to the Eagles, 35 points to the Seahawks, 44 points to the Bills, and 34 points to the Rams. Sam Darnold and Josh Allen both threw for over 300 yards against the Buccaneers in those games. Matthew Stafford had 273 passing yards through essentially 3 quarters.
Young should be able to find some success through the air in this matchup.
Brock Purdy UNDER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+120, bet365)
Since returning from injury in Week 11, Purdy leads the NFL in EPA/play and ranks 2nd behind Drake Maye in Success Rate. Suffice it to say, he’s been playing at a high level.
The strength of the opponents he’s faced has likely inflated those numbers, however. During that stretch, he’s faced the Cardinals, Panthers, Titans, and Colts – pass defenses that ranks 22nd or worse in EPA/play since Week 11. He’s also faced the Bears, who rank 15th against the pass in that time period.
In Purdy’s only matchup against a top-14 EPA/play defense, he was held to 168 passing yards and 1 passing touchdown.
Seattle’s pass defense ranks 2nd in EPA/play and 2nd in Success Rate against the pass since Week 11. They have the resources to make life difficult for Purdy this evening.
AJ Barner UNDER 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110, DraftKings)
Barner ranks 2nd in targets for the Seahawks during their last 4 games but has still produced only 146 receiving yards – 36.5 yards per game. Part of the reason for the lack of explosive performances is related to his extremely low 4.1 aDOT. Only the team’s running backs have an aDOT closer to the line of scrimmage across the past month.
San Francisco’s pass defense is not good, but that also means they are going to struggle against Seattle’s wideouts, and Sam Darnold has shown an unwavering commitment to forcing the ball to Jaxon Smith-Njigba in 2025. Barner has a good matchup, but his low-aDOT usage makes this number a little bit inflated.
Image Credit: Imagn