NFL Player Props for Falcons vs. Buccaneers TNF (12/11)
What kind of performances can we expect on Thursday from Mike Evans, Bijan Robinson, and Baker Mayfield? Follow along as our NFL betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets for Falcons vs. Buccaneers on December 11th. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more NFL plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Week 15 will begin with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Falcons and Buccaneers from Raymond James Stadium. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
Tampa Bay enters play needing a win to maintain control of 1st place in the NFC South division. Atlanta was mathematically eliminated from the playoffs this past weekend but would surely still love to play spoiler against their fellow division rivals.
Looking at the NFL Odds for Thursday Night Football, the market is expecting a Tampa Bay victory, with the Buccaneers favored by 5.5 points. The total is set at over/under 43.5 points.
Below, you can find three of my favorite player props for Falcons vs. Buccaneers!
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Best NFL Player Props for Falcons vs. Buccaneers
Here are my top player prop bets, with kickoff scheduled for 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, December 11th:
- Mike Evans Over/Under 3.5 Receptions
- Bijan Robinson Over/Under 41.5 Receiving Yards
- Baker Mayfield Over/Under 19.5 Rushing Yards
Mike Evans UNDER 3.5 Receptions (-136, FanDuel)
FANDUELEvans cleared this number in each of his first 3 games this season before getting hurt (twice), but it’s no guarantee that we see him play a full allotment of snaps on Thursday against the Falcons. He hasn’t been hit in practice or a game since Week 7, when he suffered his most recent injury against the Lions. It’s also possible he draws a fair number of snaps across from lockdown CB A.J. Terrell this evening.
Bijan Robinson UNDER 41.5 Receiving Yards (-115, BetMGM)
BETMGMOn principle, this is simply too high of a number for a running back. Bijan Robinson has cleared this number in only 1 of his last 5 games. In 2 of the 3 games that Kirk Cousins has started, Robinson has seen only 2 total targets.
Tampa Bay has struggled to defend running backs out of the backfield in 2025, but it becomes easier to stop a player like Robinson as a receiver when the team is missing their top option, Drake London. Expect the Buccaneers to devote a lot of resources toward Robinson on Thursday, looking to make someone else beat them.
Baker Mayfield UNDER 19.5 Rushing Yards (-109, DraftKings)
DRAFTKINGSMayfield has been running a lot of late, with 5+ attempts in each of his last 4 games. That being said, he also had 3 consecutive games prior to that point without a single rush attempt, and he hadn’t managed 20 rushing yards in any of the team’s games from Week 4 to Week 10.
Atlanta played a lot of man coverage early in the season, but that has changed dramatically of late. Since Week 7, they have only 1 game in which they have played more than 34.1% man coverage. It’s more difficult for quarterbacks to escape the pocket against zone, so we might see a less mobile Mayfield this evening.
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