NFL PrizePicks Week 18 Predictions: Hill, Jones, & Moore Top Plays
In this space, we’ll look at exciting offers on the PrizePicks board for Week 18 of the NFL season and try to make some predictions based on projections, trends, and the market.
PrizePicks, a DFS Pick’em site, lays out player projections for us to stack on a ticket for user-created entries. They prompt us with a statistical projection for a player, and we get to pick whether or not the player will get More or Less than the line offered. There are hundreds of players from whom to choose, and we only have to make at least two picks to create a contest. If you haven’t tried it yet, use the PrizePicks referral code “GRINDERS” to get a deposit match up to $100.
For NFL Week 18, we’ll look at the board and see what usage, game flow, Vegas, and — of course — our projections can tell us about how players are likely to produce. We’ll look at passing, rushing, and receiving categories most weeks.
PrizePicks Top Plays for NFL Week 18
- Tyreek Hill MORE than 94.5 receiving yards
- Aaron Jones MORE than 64.5 rush yards
- DJ Moore MORE than 65.5 receiving yards
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
Tyreek Hill MORE/LESS Than 94.5 Receiving Yards
In the premier meaningful game of the week, Tyreek Hil is overly conservatively projected. How conservatively?
Hill has hit 95 yards or more in nine of 15 games, and he’s seen double-digit targets in 10 games. His aDOT on the season is 10.4. Jaylen Waddle missed Week 17 and hasn’t practiced this week so far.
The Bills have a decent pass defense, but I don’t care. Hill for MORE than 94.5 receiving yards feels like one of the easiest propositions of the season in what should be a shootout. A shootout that matters, so we have Hill projected for 110 receiving yards.
PLAY: Hill MORE than 94.5 receiving yards
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
Aaron Jones MORE/LESS than 64.5 rush yards
A.J. Dillon only has seven carries in each of the last two weeks, which has blown the doors wide open for Aaron Jones to get a ton of usage. Jones has 20 and 21 carries in the last two weeks, averaging 6.0 YPC. The volume and efficiency matter so much with Jones because he requires a team effort from the coaching staff to every blocking receiver for him to reach the promised land.
As 3.0-point favorites at home, we should continue to see a lot of Jones. Should we expect 120 yards in 20 carries? Probably not. But we don’t need 120 yards. We only need 65.
We have Jones projected for 70.8 rush yards, and – for what it’s worth – that seems a little light.
PLAY: Jones MORE than 64.5 rush yards
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
DJ Moore MORE/LESS Than 65.5 Receiving Yards
DJ Moore has had a really strong season, considering questionable-to-bad quarterbacking. Justin Fields has started 12 games this season, and Moore has averaged 90.75 receiving yards in those starts.
As 3.0-point dogs in Green Bay, we should expect some action in the air. At least, our projections team does, despite the Bears being eliminated from playoff contention. We have Moore projected for 79.9 receiving yards.
If you wanna get frisky, there’s a Moore demon play for MORE than 0.5 receiving TDs for about an extra unit.