NFL PrizePicks Week 4 Predictions: Kelce, Pollard, & Howell Highlight Top Plays
In this space, we’ll look at exciting offers on the PrizePicks board for Week 4 of the NFL season and try to make some predictions based on projections, trends, and the market.
PrizePicks, a DFS Pick’em site, lays out player projections for us to stack on a ticket for user-created entries. They prompt us with a statistical projection for a player, and we get to pick whether or not the player will get More or Less than the line offered. There are hundreds of players from whom to choose and we only have to make at least two picks to create a contest. If you haven’t tried it yet, use the PrizePicks referral code “GRINDERS” to get a deposit match up to $100.
For NFL Week 4, we will start to look at all of the props and see what usage, gameflow, Vegas, and — of course — our projections can tell us about how players are likely to produce. We’ll look at a passing, rushing, and receiving prompt most weeks.
PrizePicks Top Plays for NFL Week 4
- Travis Kelce MORE than 68.5 receiving yards
- Tony Pollard MORE than 0.5 touchdowns
- Sam Howell LESS than 211.5 passing yards
Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets
Travis Kelce MORE/LESS Than 68.5 Receiving Yards
This isn’t a defense doesn’t matter flagplant. The Chiefs-Jets game only has a 44.5 total, sure, but the Chiefs are 9.5-point favorites on Sunday Night Football, making their implied total 26.0.
Vegas doesn’t see a high-scoring shootout here, but it does see the Chiefs putting up a ton of points. See, it’s not me saying that defense doesn’t matter. It’s the smart Vegas people.
Travis Kelce missed Week 1 and still leads the Chiefs with 17 targets and 11 receptions. As the prime target of Patrick Mahomes, he should get the volume to reach our current median projection of 88.05 receiving yards to smash this prompt. I want Kelce MORE than 68.5 receiving yards in a lot of my contests.
PLAY: Travis Kelce MORE than 68.5 rec yards
Dallas Cowboys vs. New England Patriots
Tony Pollard MORE/LESS Than 0.5 Pass+Rush+Rec TDs
Tony Pollard already has 15 rush attempts within the ten-yard-line. The next guy on the list is Kenneth Walker with nine.
We have Pollard projected at a robust 0.98 touchdowns for Week 4. If you’re unaware of how crazy that is, Tyreek Hill is at 0.68 and Justin Jefferson is at 0.66.
The Cowboys are hosting a Patriots team that will likely zero in on Ceedee Lamb to force the banged up line to setup Pollard to beat them. And Vegas is saying the Cowboys will win that battle as 6.5-point favorites.
Pollard is getting excellent quality usage, the gamescript is in his favor, the Cowboys should put up a lot of points, and the median outcome is that he’ll score a tuddy.
We should have Pollard to score a touchdown in our contests.
PLAY: Tony Pollard MORE than 0.5 pass+rush+rec TDs
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Sam Howell MORE/LESS Than 211.5 Pass Yards
Defenses do matter when the defense is really, really good and the QB is a total novice. Sam Howell has averaged 223.7 passing yards per game through the first three weeks. He should have fewer than that against a staunch Eagles defense. Implied at only 18.0 points against a team that’s great at hogging ball to kill Howell’s efficiency and volume.
We have Howell projected all the way down at 191.63 and, honestly, that feels a little high. The Eagles allowed 306 and 346 yards in the air the first two weeks to Mac Jones and Kirk Cousins before holding Baker Mayfield to 146 in Week 3. Howell is closer to Mayfield that the other two.