NFL PrizePicks Week 7 Predictions: Hurts & Ravens Highlight Top Plays
In this space, we’ll look at exciting offers on the PrizePicks board for Week 7 of the NFL season and try to make some predictions based on projections, trends, and the market.
PrizePicks, a DFS Pick’em site, lays out player projections for us to stack on a ticket for user-created entries. They prompt us with a statistical projection for a player, and we get to pick whether or not the player will get More or Less than the line offered. There are hundreds of players from whom to choose, and we only have to make at least two picks to create a contest. If you haven’t tried it yet, use the PrizePicks referral code “GRINDERS” to get a deposit match up to $100.
For NFL Week 7, we’ll look at all of the prompts and see what usage, gameflow, Vegas, and — of course — our projections can tell us about how players are likely to produce. We’ll look at passing, rushing, and receiving prompts most weeks.
PrizePicks Top Plays for NFL Week 7
- Jalen Hurts MORE than 240.5 passing yards
- Derek Carr MORE than 0.5 rushing yards
- Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews MORE than 55.5 receiving yards
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Miami Dolphins
Jalen Hurts MORE/LESS than 240.5 passing yards
Jalen Hurts jumped from 209.6 passing yards per game in 2021 to 246.7 in 2022. Through six weeks of the 2023 season, he’s averaging 257.0.
Always a high air yards per attempt quarterback, volume provides us a safe feeling for yardage. He’s passed 45, 38, 37, and 37 times over the last four games. We should expect more of this volume in a 51.5 total with only a 3.5-point spread at home.
The table is set for Hurts’ talent to put up video game numbers on Sunday night. Our projections currently have him at a robust 293.92 passing yards for this week. There’s a massive gap between Hurts’ pick ‘em prompt and the projection for us to exploit.
PLAY: Jalen Hurts MORE than 240.5 passing yards
New Orleans Saints vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Derek Carr MORE/LESS than 0.5 rushing yards
I love these 0.5 yardage prompts with pocket passers. The right pocket passers.
Derek Carr has 11 rush attempts this season. Only one game with zero rushes and it was the game against the Packers where he left early. Only one game with negative rushing yards.
In 2022, Carr ran at least one time in nine out of 15 games, achieving positive yardage in seven.
Carr isn’t a burner, but is he likely to run at least one yard? It’s slim, but probably, given the dome and the heavily talented offense on the other side that should force more Saints dropbacks.
Carr is projected for 8.96 rushing yards this week.
(If you like this, Taysom Hill has a MORE/LESS passing yards prompt of 0.5. He’s a virtual coin flip to get a yard.)
PLAY: Derek Carr MORE than 0.5 rushing yards
Baltimore Ravens vs. Detroit Lions
Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews MORE/LESS than 55.5 receiving yards
The Lions have only blitzed on 20% of dropbacks this season. We should see this frequency go down against Lamar Jackson to contain his elite rushing abilities. This means that Jackson’s dropbacks will result in him throwing more often than we’re used to.
The game has a tight 3.0-point spread, so the rushing attack won’t take the ball away from Lamar. And that three-headed monster of Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, and Melvin Gordon is pretty gruesome.
Instead of going after Lamar’s prompt, we should love the super-conservative receiving yards prompts on Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews, who are averaging about eight and seven targets per game, respectively. Flowers is projected for 76.95 yards and Andrews for 74.79.