NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 7: Strategy, Safest Bets, and Upsets
The 2021 NFL season is in full-swing once again, which means that eliminator, survivor, and pick’em pools are on many people’s minds. This fall, we will be offering some advice and best practices for how to approach each of these formats.
There are quite a few heavy favorites on the board for Week 7. We’ve already looked at Week 7 lines, now let’s break down our best NFL survivor picks.
NFL Week 7 Survivor Picks, Strategy
Traditionally, survivor pools require participants to simply pick the winner of one NFL game straight up each week. The challenging part of eliminator tournaments is that you can only use a team once during the season. In 2021, this means that you will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season, so there will be weeks during which you will not be able to have an elite roster at your disposal.
In Week 1, we said that it made sense to burn an elite team, the Los Angeles Rams, to start off the year with a victory. We successfully burned another elite team in Week 2—the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In Week 3, we used a less notable team—the Denver Broncos in an extremely favorable matchup at home against a rookie quarterback. In Week 4, we took advantage of another team with a favorable matchup, the Buffalo Bills at home against an inexperienced signal caller. In Week 5, we took our first semi-risky play of the year, the Dallas Cowboys against their division rival. In Week 6, we successfully bet on some positive regression from Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. In Week 7, we are finally going to burn the undefeated Arizona Cardinals in a favorable home matchup against the hapless Houston Texans.
Week 1: Los Angeles Rams
Week 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 3: Denver Broncos
Week 4: Buffalo Bills
Week 5: Dallas Cowboys
Week 6: Kansas City Chiefs
Week 7 Survivor Pick: Arizona Cardinals
Each week in this article, we discuss red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid five contexts when considering options for a survivor league:
1. Intra-division games
2. Prime Time games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week
In Week 7, the only big favorites that we have remaining to use are the Arizona Cardinals (-17.5) and the Green Bay Packers (-7.5). Let’s take a closer look at each contest and a few other options for participants to consider if they still have the Rams or Buccaneers available to use.
Cardinals (vs. Texans)
The Cardinals have no red flags this week. This is not an intra-division game, or a prime time affair. They have the benefit of home field advantage and playing on normal rest. Four of Arizona’s six victories this fall have been by 12 or more points. Four of Houston’s five losses this season have been by double-digits, including a 40 point loss to the Buffalo Bills and a 28 point loss to the Indianapolis Colts. The Cardinals should win this contest comfortably.
Buccaneers (vs. Bears)
The opposite of a red flag, the Buccaneers are a green flag option this week after having an extra three days to prepare for this matchup. Tampa Bay’s offense is unquestionably one of the best in the league. Giving them an extra three days to watch film and practice to prepare for a home matchup with the mediocre Chicago Bears should result in an easy win. Other than losing to the Rams in Week 3, the Buccaneers have been spectacular. They have two wins by 23 or more points and have grinded out a couple of close victories in the fourth quarter. This is a safe option for Week 7.
Safest Pick
If playing in a survivor pool with no constraints on picking the same team multiple times throughout the course of the season, participants have far more options to consider on a weekly basis. In Week 6, the safest option by far, for those who are still able to use them, is the Los Angeles Rams (-15.5).
Rams (vs. Lions)
The Rams played poorly last Sunday, but still managed to defeat the New York Giants on the road in an east coast time zone by 27 points. Matthew Stafford has been the perfect fit in Sean McVay’s up-tempo offense. His rapport with Cooper Kupp has made this one of the most consistent offensive attacks in the NFL. Other than a Week 4 loss to the undefeated Cardinals, the Rams have looked dominant all year. Four of their five wins have come by nine or more points. Los Angeles should have little trouble handling a Detroit Lions team still seeking their first win.
Upset Watch
Each week, we will examine one team that is a heavy favorite and discuss why they could be a slightly more risky option than the other teams that people are considering in their survivor and eliminator pools. In Week 4, we identified the eight-point favorite Baltimore Ravens as being on upset alert. It took a 4th and 19 conversion on the final drive and an NFL record 66-yard field goal as time expired for them to avoid a loss to the underdog Detroit Lions. In Week 5, we said to beware of the Cincinnati Bengals, who trailed 14-0 at halftime and only barely squeaked out a 24-21 victory on Thursday Night Football. In Week 6, we once again said to prepare for a stressful day if selecting the Ravens, who trailed by 16 points in the fourth quarter against the Colts. Stay away from these stressful situations when you can help it. In Week 7, we warned bettors not to fall for the bait on the Buffalo Bills, who were touchdown favorites but ended up losing outright to the Tennessee Titans.
Let’s take a look at this week’s big favorite that could be in for a tougher contest than oddsmakers are suggesting.
Packers (vs. Football Team)
There is a lack of consensus on the line for this contest with some sportsbooks pricing the Packers as -7.5 point favorites and other oddsmakers pricing them at -8.5 and -9.5. Green Bay is undefeated since their Week 1 loss to the New Orleans Saints. However, they trailed at halftime to the Detroit Lions. They need a last-second, game-winning drive against both the San Francisco 49ers and the Cincinnati Bengals to secure a victory. They only beat the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Chicago Bears by 10 points. Aaron Rodgers and company have been putting up a lot of wins, but they have not made things look easy. While Green Bay is certainly expected to win against the Washington Football Team, this might be an unnecessary sweat for survivor pool participants. There are better options on the board.
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