NFL Week 7 Betting Lines and Picks for Every Game (2021)
It’s Week 7 of the 2021 NFL season, with yet another absolutely insane weekend in the books. The Arizona Cardinals remain undefeated, while the No. 1 scoring Bills fell on Monday Night Football to Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans. Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb connected for the walk-off win over the Patriots in Gillette, while the Chiefs survived three first-half turnovers against Washington to emerge 31-13. The Jaguars finally won, perhaps saving Urban Meyer’s job, and the Ravens extinguished the Chargers’ hot streak in commanding fashion. Break!
Each week, we give you NFL betting tips for every single game on the upcoming slate. We rank the 1:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. games in order of confidence level, and of course provide our best bets for each of the three primetime games.
Not so humble brag: last week, we crushed it. I nailed five of my six best bets in the 1:00 p.m. slate, and six of eight total. I then nailed my top three bets in the 4:00 p.m. slate (going 3-1 total), hit the Seahawks +4.5 and the OVER of 41.5 on Sunday Night Football, and got the easy OVER of 54 on Monday Night Football. All said, our Week 6 wins-loss record was 12-4. If you followed my recommendations early last week, that’s a lot of cheddar bacon mashed potatoes.
Let’s ride this momentum, and get right into our Week 7 early lines and top betting picks. It’s all about the money—let’s go get it, and have as much fun as the Broncos’ Javonte Williams hurdling safeties!
NFL Week 7 Lines and Betting Picks
TNF: Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns -2.5, O/U 42.5
After a three-game winning streak to start the season, the Broncos have dropped the last three. Now they get the Browns, who will be without their elite running back tandem of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, AND quarterback Baker Mayfield. Oddsmakers must believe in Cleveland’s ability to control the game at home with its often-dominant defense. But it’s not dominant enough to get the Browns by in a game without its biggest strength. Denver with QB Teddy Bridgewater beats Cleveland with Case Keenum and without its running game.
PICK: Broncos +3 (buy a half-point)
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens -6.5, O/U 47
I know Lamar Jackson and the Ravens just thumped the Chargers, and their five-game winning streak includes a Sunday Night Football slugfest over the Kansas City Chiefs. But the Bengals are pretty good, too! Cincy has won three of its last four games, and its two losses on the season are by a field goal (vs. GB, at CHI). Second-year QB Joe Burrow threw for 297 yards and three TDs last week in a 34-11 rout in Detroit, a game in which wideout Tee Higgins and running back Joe Mixon both played. Expect standout wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase to continue his Rookie of the Year campaign in Baltimore, as Cincy covers like it has four times already this season. I also expect the OVER will be reached by the third quarter of this one.
PICK: Bengals +6.5, OVER 47
New York Jets at New England Patriots -7, O/U 42.5
The Patriots almost beat the high-flying Cowboys at home last week, and rookie QB Mac Jones looks like he has what it takes to be a solid NFL quarterback. So, why are the Jets getting just seven points in Foxboro? Belichick’s boys always pummel Gang Green when they need a get-right game—New England might win by closer to 17. Rookie QB Zach Wilson went just 19-of-32 for 192 yards against Atlanta in Week 5, and he threw his NFL-leading ninth interception in the Falcons 27-20 win. Newsflash: the Pats are a better D than ATL. New England beat New York 25-6 when they met in the Meadowlands in Week 3—expect similar results this week.
PICK: Patriots -7
Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans +5.5, O/U 57.5
All my colleagues seem to be penning articles asking the question “are the Chiefs fixed?” No, they beat Taylor Heinicke and a Washington Football Team that lost top running back Antonio Gibson to a calf injury. When Kansas City beats a legitimate playoff team in convincing fashion, maybe I will believe that Patrick Mahomes and his boys are back to their dominant ways. A W over WFT—in which Mahomes throws two picks—is not convincing. Tennessee just outscored the No. 1 offense in the NFL, the Buffalo Bills, in a wild 34-31 Monday Night Football bout in Nashville. I think the Legend of King Henry continues against the reigning AFC Champs this week, and Tennessee at least covers—like it has in four of its six games so far.
PICK: Titans +4.5
Washington Football Team at Green Bay Packers -8, O/U 49
Since taking a Week 1 beating by the Saints on a neutral field, the Packers have won five straight games. Reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers just keeps taking care of business, regardless of the quality of his opponents’ defense. ARodg now has wins in San Fran and Chicago, so I don’t see any reason to think Green Bay won’t beat WFT by double-digits at Lambeau. Washington surrenders an NFL-worst 31 points per game this season, after ranking in the top four in scoring defense last season. With running back Antonio Gibson banged up (shin/calf), Taylor Heinicke and wideout Terry McLaurin can’t keep up with this Packers offense in a cold, hostile environment. Maybe buy a half-point, but I’m pretty confident in the home favorite here—the Pack have covered the spread in five straight contests.
PICK: Packers -8
Carolina Panthers at New York Giants +3, O/U 43.5
Carolina has been without No. 1 running back Christian McCaffrey for three games now, and big surprise, the Panthers have lost three consecutive tilts. Maybe they can get things going against a Giants squad that has been outscored 82-31 over the past two weeks. New York will be happy to face a non-playoff team for the first time since Week 3, but I think Carolina rights the ship behind its strong defense this week. The G-men don’t have enough weapons to beat good teams, and QB Daniel Jones continues to make mistakes under pressure. Jones threw three picks last week against the Rams, and while Sam Darnold hasn’t looked great lately, he’s looked better than Jones overall this season. Chubba Hubbard chugga-chugs to two TDs this week, and the Panthers nab their fourth win.
PICK: Panthers -3
Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins +2.5, O/U 47.5
The Dolphins got Tua Tagovailoa back last week, and the second-year QB threw for 329 yards and two TDs in a devastating 23-20 loss to the 0-5 Jaguars in London. Now Miami gets a home game against the 2-3 Falcons, whose defense yields the second-most points in the NFL (29.6 per game). Since the departure of stud wideout Julio Jones, Atlanta can’t seem to make up for its defensive ineptitude with offensive production. The Falcons only beat Zach Wilson and the Jets by seven last week, despite New York putting up just 230 yards. Don’t count on Tua and the Dolphins being that bad this week, or for that matter, Miami allowing Atlanta to amass 450 total yards of offense like the Jets did. Take the ‘phins for the win.
PICK: Dolphins +2.5
NFL Week 7 Afternoon Picks
Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders -3, O/U 49
The 4:00 p.m. slate is filled with large spreads—three of the five games in that timeframe feature spreads at or above 13.5 points. So, it’s not saying much that I am most confident in this game out of this slate. That being said, I like the veteran leadership of Raiders QB Derek Carr at home over the young athleticism of second-year Philly QB Jalen Hurts on the road. Las Vegas just took care of business 34-24 over the Broncos at Mile High, while Tampa Bay dealt the Eagles their third L in four games. I like the home favorites and the OVER in this one.
PICK: Raiders -3, OVER 49
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams -15.5, O/U 50.5
I’m about as likely to bet a spread of 15.5 as I am to have a third child after the birth of my son in March. It’s not gonna happen! I’d rather take the UNDER, as the Rams have allowed 28 total points over the past two weeks. The Giants only managed 261 total yards—201 passing, 60 rushing—against LA in New York last week. After losing 34-11 at home to Cincy last week, Detroit might not score a touchdown against Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey and the Rams. Revenge game narratives for QBs like Jared Goff are just that: narratives. I’m not bold enough to pick the Rams -15.5, but I wouldn’t blame you if you do. LA has covered in four of its six games this season.
PICK: UNDER 50.5
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -13.5, O/U 47
Here’s another game with a spread much too heavy for my liking. The Bucs only beat the Eagles by six last week, and barely prevailed over the Patriots by two three weeks ago. But sandwiched between those tight games was a 45-17 beatdown of the Jacoby Brissett-led Dolphins. There’s too much volatility in Chicago’s offense under rookie QB Justin Fields —we don’t know if the Bears will show up and cover, or get their doors blown off by the defending champs. I’m going to be taking the UNDER here, with two top-five defenses squaring off against each other. But I’m not confident about any part of this game.
PICK: UNDER 47
Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals -17, O/U 47.5
Tell us how you really feel about the Texans, sportsbooks! Oddsmakers are essentially giving Houston an implied points total of 17 this week against the high-flying, undefeated Cardinals. That might be generous, considering Indy kicked the Texans in the mouth 31-3 last week. Arizona obviously has a much better offense than the Colts, and at this rate, it might also have a better defense. Houston is in disarray with Davis Mills under center and Brandin Cooks serving as its only dependable skill-position player. It sounds crazy, but I’ll take Arizona -17 and the UNDER. The Cards are 5-1 against the spread—who am I to bet against them?
PICK: Cardinals -17, UNDER 47.5
Sunday and Monday Night Football Picks
Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers -3.5, 44
After an abysmal start to the season, the Colts have looked much better offensively the past few weeks. But still, their only wins have come against Miami and Houston. Playing in San Francisco after a 49ers bye week should be a tall order. The 49ers average 24.5 points per home game, just 0.2 more than what Indianapolis surrenders to opponents on the road. San Fran has too many weapons on offense—and too strong a front-seven on defense—to bet against at home. But what do I know—underdogs almost always seem to prove me wrong in primetime.
PICK 49ers -3.5
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks +5, O/U 43.5
As I wrote last week, Monday Night Football is like entering the Upside Down in Stranger Things. I knew the underdog Titans would pull off the upset over the No. 1 scoring offense of the Bills Monday, but I still told you to bet Buffalo because it was the right call to make. Well, I’m going with the home-underdog Seahawks this week, with Jameis Winston and the Saints rolling into town. I don’t think it will be a pretty game—I’m grabbing New Orleans D/ST in multiple fantasy leagues this week—but Geno Smith has shown me enough in relief of Russell Wilson to believe he can keep this one close. Seattle almost pulled off the upset in Pittsburgh last week, so I’m confident in the ‘hawks at least covering here.
PICK: Seahawks +5, OVER 43.5
Image Credit: Imagn