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Turning the NFL Week 1 Injury Report Into A Longshot Parlay

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2024-09-08 13:37:12

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Week 1 of the 2024 NFL regular season is underway, with 13 of the weekend’s 16 games on tap for Sunday. Of course, that many games mean plenty of injury news to decipher heading into the weekend.

New at RotoGrinders this year, we will be doing a complete Sunday slate injury breakdown, including news, analysis, and potential betting angles for each game. Some of the largest edges in NFL betting are a result of key players being sidelined due to injury – and a lot of those key injuries are on the defensive side of the ball or the offensive line, which are two overlooked areas of research for most NFL fans and bettors.

At the bottom of this article, we will have a weekly longshot parlay to see if we can take this injury information and turn it into a nice payday. This week’s 13-leg parlay comes to +2453

Below, we have relevant injury news and analysis for each Week 1 Sunday NFL game!

NFL Week 1 Injury Report

As a disclaimer, inactive reports come out 90 minutes prior to kickoff for each NFL game, so we often don’t know a player’s final status until shortly before the game begins. This article is accurate as of Saturday afternoon. If looking for any last-minute injury updates or analysis, make sure to join the RotoGrinders discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons

The injury that is getting all of the attention in Pittsburgh this weekend is the potential absence of starting quarterback Russell Wilson. However, the potentially bigger issue that nobody is talking about is the fact that the Steelers will be without starting LG Isaac Seumalo in this contest. Seumalo allowed a 4.4% pressure rate in 2023, which was the best mark of any player on the Pittsburgh offensive line. He also graded 12th best out of 79 qualified guards as a run blocker, per PFF. Pittsburgh will also be without 3rd round pick Roman Wilson in Week 1, further reducing the talent in their wide receiver room.

Steelers

LEAN: Steelers UNDER 19.5 Team Total Points (-108)

Arizona Cardinals vs. Buffalo Bills

Arizona has a laundry list of players already on the injured reserve, including EDGE BJ Ojulari and DT Darius Robinson. Ojulari finished 2023 tied for the 2nd most sacks of any Cardinals defender and played at least 25 snaps in each of the team’s final 8 regular season games. Robinson was selected in the 1st round of this past summer’s draft by Arizona and figured to see a sizable role in his rookie year.

Unquestionably, the most impactful injury in this matchup is LB Matt Milano, who is on injured reserve for the Bills. Last year, Buffalo’s defense ranked 4th in EPA/play from Week 1 to Week 4 with Milano healthy. Following his season-ending injury, Buffalo’s defense regressed to 16th in EPA/play. He’s their most talented defender and a significant loss for the Bills on that side of the ball.

Cardinals

Bills

LEAN: Michael Wilson OVER 2.5 Receptions (-110)

Tennessee Titans vs. Chicago Bears

From a fantasy perspective, the most important injury news to follow ahead of kickoff in this contest is the availability of DeAndre Hopkins. He was limited in practice each day this week and has not logged a full practice since injuring his knee during training camp. It’s worth noting that Hopkins is 32 years old, so his body is unlikely to bounce back the same way that a younger player’s might. Expect him to be limited, even if he’s able to suit up. Tennessee will also be without LB Cedric Gray, LB Otis Reese, and S Jamal Adams on Sunday. CB Chidobe Awuzie is listed as questionable after logging a limited practice on Friday. He primarily plays on the outside and would be a notable loss for a secondary unit that has a lot of new pieces.

Chicago is mostly healthy, but has listed a pair of edge defenders, DeMarcus Walker and Darrell Taylor, as questionable. Walker had 3.5 sacks for the Bears in 2023, but neither of these players will make or break the team’s defense.

Titans

Bears

LEAN: Caleb Williams OVER 237.5 Passing Yards (-113)

New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals

All of the injury news surrounding this game has been focused on the Bengals, but the Patriots are arguably in worse shape heading into the weekend. New England will be without starting LG Sidy Sow and likely without starting LT Vederian Lowe. Per Evan Lazar, the team used the following offensive line combination this week at practice – LT Chuks Okorafor, LG Michael Jordan, C David Andrews, RG Layden Robinson, and RT Mike Onwenu. Okorafor didn’t play a single snap at LT in 2023 and Jordan is being elevated from the practice squad. Making matters worse for New England, LB Joshua Uche has been bothered by a “nagging foot injury” of late and is listed as questionable for Week 1. Even if he suits up, he’s likely to be limited. DT Christian Barmore, who led New England with 8.5 sacks in 2023, is on injured reserve.

Cincinnati isn’t in great shape either. WR Tee Higins is listed as doubtful and WR Ja’Marr Chase is still not committed to playing this weekend, as he and the Bengals continue working on a new contract. Even if Chase plays, he told local media this week that he expects to be “limited” after sitting out the bulk of training camp practices. Trenton Irwin and Andrei Iosivas could be in for an expanded workload in the passing game. Iosivas turned heads during the preseason and could surprise people if given enough opportunities in the season opener.

Patriots

Bengals

LEAN: UNDER 41 (-110)

Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts

The Texans don’t have any notable injuries in this game from a fantasy football perspective, but LB Christian Harris and DT Kurt Hinish are both currently on injured reserve. Harris finished 2023 with the 2nd most tackles of any Texans defender, adding 2 sacks and 7 passes defensed. He wasn’t a strong run defender, but he ranked 21st out of 77 players at his position in coverage. His absence could make Houston more vulnerable in the middle of the field through the air. Hinish isn’t particularly talented, but he played at least 19 snaps in 17 games last fall. He isn’t a major absence, but depth matters on the defensive side of the ball, especially early in the season when players are not always conditioned at a mid-season level.

WR Josh Downs has been ruled out for Week 1. Downs was 2nd on the Colts in 2023 in receptions, targets, receiving yards, and catches that resulted in a first down. He played primarily in the slot, which means there could be more looks in the short passing game given to the team’s running backs or tight ends. EDGE Samson Ebukam is on injured reserve for the Colts. Ebukam was one of the Colts’ better defenders in 2023, finishing 10th out of 112 players at his position against the run, per PFF. He also added a team-high 9.5 sacks and forced 3 fumbles. This is a big loss for Indianapolis heading into Week 1.

Texans

Colts

LEAN: Anthony Richardson OVER 223.5 Passing Yards (-113)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Miami Dolphins

Both the Jaguars and Dolphins are relatively healthy heading into Week 1. Miami listed star CB Jalen Ramsey as questionable, but has no other significant ailments to report. Ramsey is one of the better cover cornerbacks in the NFL. He ranked 6th-best in coverage DVOA in 2023. From Week 1 to Week 7, with Ramsey off of the field, Miami’s pass defense ranked 18th in EPA/play and 28th in success rate. After he returned in Week 8, their pass defense improved to 8th in EPA/play and 7th in success rate.

Dolphins

LEAN: Jaguars OVER 22.5 Team Total Points (-118), DraftKings

Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints

Carolina has ruled out Tommy Tremble for Week 1. Tremble led all Carolina tight ends with 23 receptions and 194 receiving yards in 2023. In his absence, rookie J.T. Sanders will start at tight end. One scouting report described Sanders as “a constant vertical threat and a mismatch for most linebackers in coverage” in his pre-draft report.

New Orleans is banged up on the defensive side of the ball, with DT Khalen Saunders and LB Jaylan Ford already ruled out. LB Willie Gay is listed as questionable as well heading into the weekend. On the offensive side, A.T. Perry is listed as questionable, but isn’t likely to be a game-changing absence if he’s unable to go.

Panthers

Saints

LEAN: Saints UNDER 3.5 Team Sacks (+135)

Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Giants

The only notable injury to report here is the absence of starting LG Dalton Risner for the Vikings. Risner started 11 games for Minnesota in 2023, allowing only a 3.9% pressure rate. He ranked 20th out of 77 guards in pass protection, per PFF.

Vikings

LEAN: Aaron Jones OVER 13.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Las Vegas is a little bit banged up heading into Week 1. They have already ruled out DE Malcolm Koonce, who recorded 6 sacks in the team’s final four games in 2023. The Raiders will also be without LG Jackson Powers-Johnson, who opened OTAs competing with Cody Whitehair for a starting spot on the offensive line.

The most notable absence from a fantasy football perspective in this matchup is likely to be WR DJ Chark. Chark was slated for a starting role in the Chargers’ passing attack, but has been ruled out for Sunday’s matchup. His absence should mean a larger workload for Joshua Palmer and Ladd McConkey, among others, in an aerial attack that lacks a clear and obvious WR1.

Raiders

LG Jackson Powers-Johnson (OUT)
DE Malcolm Koonce (OUT)
LB Tommy Eichenberg (QUESTIONABLE)
CB Decamerion Richardson (OUT)

Chargers

LEAN: Ladd McConkey OVER 34.5 Receiving Yards (-122)

Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks

WR Tyler Lockett is listed as questionable for Sunday’s contest but is expected to play after logging a full practice on Friday. The most notable injury news for Seattle is on the defensive side of the ball, with EDGE Uchenna Nwosu. Nwosu is a significant loss for this defense. He was 7th in the NFL with 46 pressures in 2022 and had 2 sacks in his first 6 games in 2023 before suffering a pec injury. Seattle’s defense ranked 13th in EPA/play and 17th in success rate through 6 weeks with a healthy Nwosu last year compared to 32nd in EPA/play and 31st in success rate from Week 8 to Week 18.

Seahawks

LEAN: Jaleel McLaughlin OVER 11.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

Dallas Cowboys vs. Cleveland Browns

Dallas already has two notable names on the injured reserve – EDGE Sam Williams and CB DaRon Bland. Williams finished 3rd on the Cowboys last year with 4.5 sacks. He was used situationally in 2023 but could have been in for a larger role with Dallas this fall after a number of offseason departures. This is a notable absence. Bland is a tremendous loss for this secondary unit. In 2023, Bland finished 4th among 126 players at his position in PFF’s coverage grade and 2nd as a run defender.

Cleveland is dealing with a few key injuries as well heading into Week 1. LT Jedrick Wills has already been ruled out and RT Jack Conklin is listed as questionable. Wills struggled in 2023 before suffering a season-ending injury in Week 9, but he’s still viewed as the team’s starter at LT. In his place, James Hudson III will draw the start. Hudson ranked 72nd out of 81 tackles in pass protection in 2023 and 67th as a run blocker, per PFF. Hudson is a downgrade in talent. Conklin is recovering from a knee injury after playing only 22 snaps last year before being lost for the season. Conklin has regularly been one of the most productive players at his position during his career, but it’s worth noting that he’s now suffered three knee injuries in the last six seasons (ACL tear, patellar tendon tear, ACL/MCL tear).

Cowboys

Browns

LEAN: Deshaun Watson UNDER 20.5 Completions (-120)

Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Washington’s only notable injury in Week 1 is DT Jer’Zhan Newton, who is listed as doubtful. Newton was a 2nd round pick in this past summer’s draft.

Tampa Bay will be without DE Logan Hall. Hall had 22 tackles and added 0.5 sack for Tampa Bay’s defense in 2023. He’s a rotational player on the defensive line and not a significant loss, but he did play at least 18 snaps in 18 games for the Buccaneers last fall, including the playoffs. WR Trey Palmer is also listed as questionable. Palmer ranked 5th on the team in receptions and 4th in targets in 2023 for Tampa Bay. His absence would not make or break this team’s offense in Week 1.

Commanders

Buccaneers

LEAN: Commanders +3.5 (-118)

Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions

The Rams will potentially be without a couple of significant contributors on Sunday Night Football in Week 1. Starting RT Rob Havenstein was limited at practice all week with an ankle injury. He’s one of the better RT in the entire league — he finished 4th among 79 tackles as a run blocker, per PFF, in 2023 and allowed only a 4.5% pressure rate. If Havenstein is unable to play, Warren McClendon Jr. will start at RT. McClendon was a 5th round pick in 2023 out of Georgia and allowed a 12.5% pressure rate as a rookie in limited snaps. Los Angeles will also be without CB Darious Williams, who was one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL a season ago when playing in Jacksonville.

The Lions aren’t heading into Week 1 with a clean bill of health either. Safeties Ifeatu Melifonwu and Loren Strickland are both unlikely to play on Sunday, with Strickland having already been officially ruled out. Melifonwu did not start a game for the Lions until Week 14 in 2023, but he was one of the best players on the field down the stretch. He played at least 41 snaps in each of the team’s final 8 games, including the playoffs. He ended the year ranked 18th out of 94 qualified safeties in coverage grade and 22nd as a run defender, per PFF. This is a notable loss. Strickland wouldn’t normally be a notable name on the injury report, but he’s worth mentioning here after Dan Campbell essentially ruled out Melifonwu when talking to the media on Friday. This is a position that will have to draw from deep on the depth chart on Sunday for Detroit. The only good news for Detroit is that their lone free agent splash from this past offseason might be ready a week earlier than anticipated. DT DJ Reader is reportedly trending in the right direction and could be on the field in Week 1. Reader was Detroit’s lone free agent splash this past offseason and is one of the best run defenders in the NFL when healthy. Last year, he ranked 9th out of 137 players at his position against the run, per PFF.

Rams

Lions

LEAN: Cooper Kupp OVER 66.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

NFL Week 1 – Longshot Injury Report 13-Leg Parlay

Odds = +2453 (DraftKings)

Image Credit: Getty Images

About the Author

nickgalaida
Nick Galaida (nickgalaida)

A failed high school pitcher, Nick Galaida discovered that he has a higher aptitude for analyzing and writing about sports than he does playing them. To his friends, he is better known as “The Commish.” When he’s not organizing a fantasy league, placing a bet, or writing an article, he’s probably nose-deep in a book—further illustrating the point that his niche in this world is as a nerd rather than an athlete. Follow Nick on Twitter – @CommishFilmRoom