NFL Week 1 Player Props: Best Bets at Online Sportsbooks
The NFL is back! The Cowboys nearly upset the defending champions on Thursday night if not for several kicking miscues and a questionable no call on a potential offensive pass interference. With the season officially kicked off, we can start licking our chops for a flurry of prop-portunities on the Sunday afternoon slate of games. Let’s take a look at the slate and pick a quarterback, running back, and receiving prop.
Last year, we closed the season 30-20 for a net 7.44 units. While that was surely successful, I hope to build on that success starting in Week 1. Make sure to check out our our game breakdowns in the sports betting section and some NFL betting tips prior to diving into this weekend’s action.
NFL Week 1 Player Props — QB Pick
Carson Wentz Over/Under 242.5 Passing Yards
After what could only be described as a tumultuous, nerve-racking offseason, Carson Wentz is clear to make his first start for the Indianapolis Colts. Undeniably talented, Wentz reunites with Frank Reich to lead a ready-made playoff contender.
While the Colts identify as a run-first offense, Indy’s hand could be forced against a high-octane Seattle offense in a reasonably lofty total. While projecting team identities is risky in the first week of the NFL season, moving the ball on the ground could prove difficult in the opener. Seattle and Indianapolis ranked in the top five in rushing yards allowed last season. Seattle ranked third-worst in passing yards allowed (278.2 YPG).
While I am relying on the way these teams played last season, 242.5 passing yards still feels incredibly low in a dome. I am going to lay 1.1 units on the over at BetMGM.
PROP BET: Wentz Over 242.5 Passing Yards -110 at BetMGM
NFL Week 1 Player Props — RB Pick
Raheem Mostert Over/Under 65.5 Rushing Yards
Admittedly, this prop is tenuous for me. Raheem Mostert “heads” the San Francisco 49ers’ backfield on the road in Detroit in Week 1. The Niners appear to be a bounce-back candidate at full health. The Lions… don’t. So, why an under on a running back on a huge favorite against a bad team?
Trey Sermon. As fantasy drafts concluded in my leagues, I learned about Trey Sermon. Disregarding my lack of preparation for fantasy football, Sermon appears poised to ultimately take over the reins of a dynamic rushing attack. While Raheem Mostert is likely to open the season as first on the depth chart, Sermon’s talent is undeniable. The 49ers will give him plenty of looks this week against a Lions defense that gave up 134.9 rushing yards per game in 2020.
Mostert is always a threat to take a carry all the way to the house with his prolific speed. That said, 65.5 rushing yards is a lofty number for a player who is certainly splitting carries. A scary sweat, indeed, but I am going to lay 1.15 units on the under at FanDuel.
PROP BET: Under 65.5 Rushing Yards -115 at FanDuel
NFL Week 1 Player Props — WR Pick
Stefon Diggs Over/Under 91.5 Receiving Yards
Speaking of scary sweats, the under on receiving yardage for Stefon Diggs. Yikes. Diggs torched the Steelers last year to the tune of 130 yards and compiled over 1500 receiving yards on the year.
Joe… Why do you like this under?. 91.5 receiving yards is a big number for Week 1 of the NFL season. The Bills added Emmanuel Sanders to an arsenal of weapons for Josh Allen. Diggs will certainly be the guy but Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis, and Sanders will get targets along with running backs and tight ends. For what it’s worth, the Steelers were relatively proficient against the pass last season — holding teams below 200 passing yards per game last in 2020. The Bills aren’t an average passing offense but this number is really big.
I am willing to risk 1.15 units that this line is built entirely off of a spectacular last season. Diggs’ production from 2020 will be very difficult to match. I think we will have plenty of under opportunities in the first quarter of the season.
PROP BET: Under 91.5 Receiving Yards -115 at PointsBet
Good luck in Week 1! Follow along this season as I aim to improve upon a relatively successful 2020-2021 campaign. Share your prop picks with Joe on Twitter @JoeCistaro.
2021 NFL Player Props Record: 0 – 0
Net Winning: +0.00
Image Credit: Imagn