NFL Week 1 Survivor Pool Picks, Advice, and Strategy
NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Week 1 Survivor Pool strategy, giving you his favorite pick and explains why one heavily favored team should be on upset alert this Sunday.
NFL Week 1 Survivor Strategy and Picks
Traditionally, survivor pools require participants to simply pick the winner of one NFL game straight up each week. The challenging part of eliminator tournaments is that you can only use a team once during the season. In 2021, this means that you will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season, so there will be weeks during which you will not be able to have an elite roster at your disposal.
Week 1 Survivor Pick: Baltimore Ravens
In Week 1, it makes sense to burn an elite team to start off the year with a victory. The Baltimore Ravens are unquestionably the safest bet of the week to win straight up. Lamar Jackson is an elite option at quarterback, whether pundits want to admit it or not. He is protected by one of the better offensive lines in football, and surrounded by an abundance of talent at the skill positions on the offensive side of the ball. The New York Jets have made major upgrades to their defense in the offseason, but they still project as a bottom-half unit overall. Jackson and company should be able to assert themselves with relative ease on the road in Week 1.
The Ravens defense should also shine in Week 1 against Zach Wilson—an unimpressive signal caller, who struggled mightily in 2021 and appears poised to start this contest, despite having knee surgery less than a month ago. Facing one of the most tenacious defenses in the league, and playing at less than 100 percent health – Wilson could be in for a nightmare day to begin 2022.
Baltimore is a better team on both sides of the football in this matchup. They should win comfortably in their first game of the season.
Each week in this article, we discuss red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when considering options for a survivor league:
1. Intra-division games
2. Prime Time games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week
Week 1 Fade: Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts catch two red flags in the opening week matchup against the Houston Texans – 1) Intra-division game; 2) Away team with a poor defense. Despite big names like Grover Stewart, DeForest Buckner, Kwity Paye, and Shaquille Leonard on the defensive side of the ball for the Colts, this is not a team without vulnerabilities.
Per NFL GSIS, the Colts ranked only 26th in the league last season in sacks per pass attempt, which means that they could struggle to get pressure on Davis Mills in this matchup. If Indianapolis struggles to get pressure on Mills, it could leave their relatively weak secondary unit vulnerable to big plays down-the-field, which could alter the scoreboard in a hurry.
If the Colts find themselves in a shootout, this game could get sweaty for bettors. Matt Ryan will be playing his first career game for a team other than the Atlanta Falcons, which could be an emotional wild card. The offensive line was one of the best in football last fall in run-blocking, but struggled mightily in pass protection. If Ryan and the offense find themselves needing to trade scores with the Texans, there is no guarantee that they will be able to consistently put points on the board.
The Texans drafted Derek Stingley Jr. with the third overall selection in this past summer’s draft, in addition to securing Jalen Pitre in the second round. This secondary unit could be much improved in 2022, which could keep this game closer than many people are anticipating.
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