NFL Week 1 Survivor Pool Picks, Advice, and Strategy (2023)
NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Week 1 Survivor Pool strategy, previewing the safest picks of the week as well as possible upsets.
NFL Week 1 Survivor Strategy and Picks
In traditional survivor pools, participants are required to select a winner of one NFL game straight-up each week. In eliminator tournaments, the rules are more challenging – allowing participants to use a team only one time throughout the course of the regular season. In 2023, this means that participants will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season. Consequently, there will be weeks when you will not be able to select an elite roster with a favorable matchup.
Each week in this RotoGrinders article, we will identify one trustworthy favorite and pick one favorite that is on upset alert. During the first nine weeks of last season, four of our teams that were on upset alert lost outright, despite all of those teams being favored by at least one score at the time of writing.
Below, we have our list of red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when choosing your team:
1. Intra-division games
2. Primetime games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week
Trust this team in Week 1: Baltimore Ravens
It’s the opening week of the regular season, and there is one team that clearly rises to the top of trustworthy options for survivor pool participants – the Baltimore Ravens.
The Ravens do not catch any of our aforementioned red flags in this matchup, playing the Houston Texans at home in a game with a 1:00 p.m. EST kickoff where both teams have equal rest. Though the Texans project to be much better than their 3-13-1 record from a season ago, they are still far from being a legitimate Super Bowl contender, which is where the Ravens have their sights set for 2023.
C.J. Stroud is likely the most talented, NFL-ready signal caller from this past summer’s draft, but he has a tough test in this spot. Baltimore has one of the best secondary units in the league, with Marlon Humphrey and Rock Ya-Sin at cornerback, and Kyle Hamilton and Marcus Williams at safety. Baltimore is also exceptionally strong at linebacker, which should mitigate any issues that stem from an underwhelming interior defensive line.
Simply, the Texans have less talent on both sides of the ball in this matchup, are on the road, and have a quarterback making his first career start in the NFL. It doesn’t get much safer than this in survivor leagues – trust Baltimore to get the job done.
Week 1 Survivor Fade: Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs won the Super Bowl this past February, which, understandably, has earned them a great deal of respect in betting markets ahead of their opening week matchup against the Detroit Lions. However, this is not the same Kansas City team that we saw go 14-3 last season.
On Thursday, the Chiefs will be without defensive lineman Chris Jones, who led the team with 15.5 sacks last fall. No other member of the Kansas City defense recorded more than six sacks in 2022. According to Sharp Football Analysis, the Chiefs’ defense led the NFL in pressure rate across the last five seasons with Jones on the field, but ranked 28th in pressure with Jones off of the field. In Jones’ absence, the Chiefs also have, arguably, the worst run defense along the defensive line in the entire league. The combination of Mike Danna, Tershawn Wharton, Derrick Nnadi, and George Karlaftis is likely to be a significant liability in this matchup.
Last year, Detroit’s offensive line was one of the most injured units in the NFL. Entering Week 1 this year, this group is completely healthy and projects to be one of the best offensive lines in the league. In addition to good protection, the Lions project well schematically in this contest. In 2022, Detroit threw 52% of their passes 1-10 air yards, per Warren Sharp, which was the second-highest rate in the NFL. The Chiefs’ defense ranked 32nd in EPA per pass attempt and 25th in success rate on such passes last year.
Jared Goff’s struggles on the road are certainly something to take note of ahead of kickoff on Thursday. Still, the absence of Chris Jones and the likely absence of Travis Kelce are significant blows to a Kansas City team that was already thin on elite talent. The Lions should be able to run the ball well enough to keep this game close, if not win outright.