NFL Week 11 Survivor Pool Picks, Advice, and Strategy
After a chalky first half of the season, survivor pools have turned into blood baths in recent weeks. For those who made it out alive, NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida is back to break down Week 11 survivor pool strategy. Follow along as he previews the safest picks of the week and warns which favorites could be in store for an upset.
NFL Week 11 Survivor Picks, Strategy
Traditionally, survivor pools require participants to simply pick the winner of one NFL game straight up each week. The challenging part of eliminator tournaments is that you can only use a team once during the season. In 2021, this means that you will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season, so there will be weeks during which you will not be able to have an elite roster at your disposal.
In Week 1, we said that it made sense to burn an elite team, the Los Angeles Rams, to start off the year with a victory. We successfully burned another elite team in Week 2—the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In Week 3, we used a less notable team—the Denver Broncos in an extremely favorable matchup at home against a rookie quarterback. In Week 4, we took advantage of another team with a favorable matchup, the Buffalo Bills at home against an inexperienced signal caller. In Week 5, we took our first semi-risky play of the year, the Dallas Cowboys against their division rival. In Week 6, we successfully bet on some positive regression from Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. In Week 7, we finally burned the undefeated Arizona Cardinals in a favorable home matchup against the hapless Houston Texans. In Week 8, we took an admittedly risky opportunity to pick against a young quarterback making his first career start, but a 13-point blown lead in the fourth quarter ended our string of good fortune.
For the remainder of the NFL season, we will simply be outlining our top few eliminator options for those who remain in their tournaments.
Week 1: Los Angeles Rams
Week 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 3: Denver Broncos
Week 4: Buffalo Bills
Week 5: Dallas Cowboys
Week 6: Kansas City Chiefs
Week 7: Arizona Cardinals
Week 8: Cincinnati Bengals
Each week in this article, we discuss red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when considering options for a survivor league:
1. Intra-division games
2. Prime Time games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week
In Week 11, there are a few big favorites worth considering, including the *Cleveland Browns (-11.5), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.5), and the Tennessee Titans (-10). Let’s take a closer look at each contest to see which are the safest, and which are the most risky options for Week 11.
Safest Pick in Week 11
Buccaneers (vs. Giants)
The Buccaneers were inexplicably awful last week against the Washington Football Team. Tom Brady had an early interception that went off of the hands of one of his receivers that led to points for Washington. Brady appeared to not be on the same page with his receiver on a later interception that also put a stop to a promising Tampa Bay drive. Brady was not helped by the fact that his receivers dropped three passes, nor was he helped by the fact that Head Coach Bruce Arians ran the ball only 12 times with his running backs in that contest. Fortunately for Tampa Bay, everything that went wrong in Week 10 is correctable for Week 11, especially when considering that this team has an extra day of practice and another weak opponent waiting for them at home. The Buccaneers defense held Washington to only 2.8 yards-per-carry on the ground, and sacked Taylor Heinicke five times. If not for consistently working on a short field, the Buccaneers defense likely could have held the Football Team under 20 points. The New York Giants rank 25th in the NFL in opponent yards-per-carry this fall. This is an excellent opportunity for Tampa Bay to emphasize the running game, which will make things easier for Brady and the passing attack. Tampa Bay should have little trouble winning this game, though they are playing an opponent coming off of a bye week, and this is a prime time game—both of which are red flags of which to take note.
Upset Watch
Each week, we will examine one or two teams that are a heavy favorite and discuss why they could be a slightly more risky option than the other teams that people are considering in their survivor and eliminator pools. In Week 4, we identified the eight-point favorite Baltimore Ravens as being on upset alert. It took a 4th and 19 conversion on the final drive and an NFL record 66-yard field goal as time expired for them to avoid a loss to the underdog Detroit Lions. In Week 5, we said to beware of the Cincinnati Bengals, who trailed 14-0 at halftime and only barely squeaked out a 24-21 victory on Thursday Night Football. In Week 6, we once again said to prepare for a stressful day if selecting the Ravens, who trailed by 16 points in the fourth quarter against the Colts. In Week 7, we warned bettors not to fall for the bait on the Buffalo Bills, who were touchdown favorites but ended up losing outright to the Tennessee Titans. In Week 8, we told you to stay away from the Kansas City Chiefs, who trailed by 17-14 late into the fourth quarter. Stay away from these stressful situations when you can help it.
Let’s take a look at this week’s two big favorites that could be in for a tougher contest than oddsmakers are suggesting.
Browns (vs. Lions)
Even casual fans of the NFL should recognize that it is more than a little bit surprising the Browns favored by double-digits this Sunday. After an early touchdown in Week 10, Cleveland was outscored 45-0 by the New England Patriots in a brutal defeat. Even more concerning, quarterback Baker Mayfield was forced from the game due to an injury. Even if he plays this Sunday, it is clear to anyone that has seen him play in recent weeks that he is fighting through an abundance of difficult injuries—each of which is hurting his performance on the field. Mayfield is not helped by the fact that his offensive line has suddenly gone from being an elite unit to one with serious question marks. Even the potential return of Nick Chubb to action is unlikely to solve the issues plaguing Cleveland at the line of scrimmage. After allowing 45 points, the defense is also a concern here, whether Jared Goff or Tim Boyle ends up starting under center for Detroit on Sunday. These are two bad football teams, both dealing with an assortment of injuries to key players. Bettors would be wise to stay away from Cleveland in this spot—a team that has been wildly volatile throughout the entire season.
Texans (vs. Titans)
The Titans are substantial favorites in this game for obvious reasons. First of all, Tennessee has the best record in the AFC and Houston has the worst record in the AFC. Still, the Titans rank only 23rd in the league in yards per play, and 23rd in opponent yards per play. Despite walking away with a win in Week 10, the Titans were outgained 373-264 by a New Orleans Saints offense that started Trevor Siemian at quarterback and Mark Ingram at running back. Though Tennessee won handily against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 9, the Rams outgained Tennessee 347-194. If not for costly unforced turnovers, that game could have looked entirely different on the scoreboard. The Texans might not be world-beaters, but neither are the Titans. Bettors might not pay the price this week if they continue to play the Titans, but regression is on the way. In a division game, with Houston coming off of a bye—stranger things have happened.
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