NFL Week 12 Survivor Pool Picks, Advice, and Strategy
NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Week 12 Survivor Pool strategy, previewing the safest picks of the week as well as some possible upsets.
NFL Week 12 Survivor Picks, Strategy
Traditionally, survivor pools require participants to simply pick the winner of one NFL game straight up each week. The challenging part of eliminator tournaments is that you can only use a team once during the season. In 2021, this means that you will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season, so there will be weeks during which you will not be able to have an elite roster at your disposal.
In Week 1, we said that it made sense to burn an elite team, the Los Angeles Rams, to start off the year with a victory. We successfully burned another elite team in Week 2—the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In Week 3, we used a less notable team—the Denver Broncos in an extremely favorable matchup at home against a rookie quarterback. In Week 4, we took advantage of another team with a favorable matchup, the Buffalo Bills at home against an inexperienced signal caller. In Week 5, we took our first semi-risky play of the year, the Dallas Cowboys against their division rival. In Week 6, we successfully bet on some positive regression from Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. In Week 7, we finally burned the undefeated Arizona Cardinals in a favorable home matchup against the hapless Houston Texans. In Week 8, we took an admittedly risky opportunity to pick against a young quarterback making his first career start, but a 13-point blown lead in the fourth quarter ended our string of good fortune.
For the remainder of the NFL season, we will simply be outlining our top few eliminator options for those who remain in their tournaments. If there are specific games that you would like to see included in this piece in future weeks, please reach out to @DelphiCommish on Twitter.
Week 1: Los Angeles Rams
Week 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 3: Denver Broncos
Week 4: Buffalo Bills
Week 5: Dallas Cowboys
Week 6: Kansas City Chiefs
Week 7: Arizona Cardinals
Week 8: Cincinnati Bengals
Each week in this article, we discuss red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when considering options for a survivor league:
1. Intra-division games
2. Prime Time games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week
In Week 12, there are only three teams favored by more than a touchdown—the Dallas Cowboys (-7.5), Buffalo Bills (-6.5), and the New England Patriots (-6.5). Let’s take a closer look at each contest to see which are the safest, and which are the most risky options for Week 12.
Safest Pick in Week 12
Cowboys (vs. Raiders)
The only red flag to be concerned about with Dallas this week is that they are playing on a short week in prime time. Other than that, there is little for bettors to worry about if they still have the Cowboys available to use in their eliminator or survivor pools. The return of Tyron Smith to the offensive line is likely to open up the running game far more than we have seen in recent weeks with Smith on the sidelines. Facing a Las Vegas Raiders defense that is allowing 4.5 yards-per-carry this season, Dallas should have plenty of room on the ground to dominate the time of possession, and to put points on the board. Las Vegas has allowed 73 points across their last two games—both of which were at home. The Raiders are unlikely to remedy their defensive woes on a short week, traveling to a hostile environment at AT&T Stadium. Dallas is a safe pick in Week 12.
Survivor Pool Upset Watch
Each week, we will examine one or two teams that are a heavy favorite and discuss why they could be a slightly more risky option than the other teams that people are considering in their survivor and eliminator pools. In Week 4, we identified the eight-point favorite Baltimore Ravens as being on upset alert. It took a 4th and 19 conversion on the final drive and an NFL record 66-yard field goal as time expired for them to avoid a loss to the underdog Detroit Lions. In Week 5, we said to beware of the Cincinnati Bengals, who trailed 14-0 at halftime and only barely squeaked out a 24-21 victory on Thursday Night Football. In Week 6, we once again said to prepare for a stressful day if selecting the Ravens, who trailed by 16 points in the fourth quarter against the Colts. In Week 7, we warned bettors not to fall for the bait on the Buffalo Bills, who were touchdown favorites but ended up losing outright to the Tennessee Titans. In Week 8, we told you to stay away from the Kansas City Chiefs, who trailed by 17-14 late into the fourth quarter. Stay away from these stressful situations when you can help it. In Week 11, we told bettors to be wary of both the Cleveland Browns and the Tennessee Titans. Cleveland narrowly held on for a three-point victory. Despite entering play with the best record in the NFL, the Titans lost to the Houston Texans, who entered play with the worst record in the AFC.
Let’s take a look at this week’s two big favorites that could be in for a tougher contest than oddsmakers are suggesting.
Bills (vs. Saints)
Even casual fans of the NFL can understand that it is far from ideal to be using a backup quarterback, in addition to missing two running backs. Despite this situation, the New Orleans Saints are capable of putting up a strong fight on Thursday evening. New Orleans is allowing the fewest yards-per-carry of any team in the NFL through 11 weeks. They have also been strong against the pass, holding opposing quarterbacks to a 62.8 percent completion rate and an 85.5 passer rating. Buffalo has struggled to run the ball consistently out of the backfield in recent weeks. Josh Allen has been extremely inconsistent over the last month of action. Buffalo is listed as a double-digit favorite in this contest, but this could end up being a tightly-contested affair.
Patriots (vs. Titans)
We faded the Titans in Week 11, calling them one of the most underrated teams in the NFL. Though we stand by those comments, they are unquestionably a better team than they showed in their loss to the Houston Texans. The market has overcorrected in this spot ahead of the upcoming week of games. Tennessee has holes on both sides of the ball, but this is a team with boom potential on any given week—even without Derrick Henry carrying the ball. Ryan Tannehill had one of his worst games as a professional last Sunday. Expect Tennessee to have a strong week of practice and for this group to come ready to prove that they are better than they showed last week. Mac Jones has been stellar as a rookie. New England rarely attacks down-the-field through the air with the deep ball. This could be a deceptive game on the schedule in Week 12. Look elsewhere if possible for your survivor selection this weekend.
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