NFL Week 14 Survivor Pool Picks, Advice, and Strategy
Follow along as NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Week 14 Survivor Pool strategy, previewing the safest picks of the week as well as possible upsets to beware of.
NFL Week 14 Survivor Picks, Strategy
Traditionally, survivor pools require participants to simply pick the winner of one NFL game straight up each week. The challenging part of eliminator tournaments is that you can only use a team once during the season. In 2021, this means that you will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season, so there will be weeks during which you will not be able to have an elite roster at your disposal.
In Week 1, we said that it made sense to burn an elite team, the Los Angeles Rams, to start off the year with a victory. We successfully burned another elite team in Week 2—the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In Week 3, we used a less notable team—the Denver Broncos in an extremely favorable matchup at home against a rookie quarterback. In Week 4, we took advantage of another team with a favorable matchup, the Buffalo Bills at home against an inexperienced signal caller. In Week 5, we took our first semi-risky play of the year, the Dallas Cowboys against their division rival. In Week 6, we successfully bet on some positive regression from Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. In Week 7, we finally burned the undefeated Arizona Cardinals in a favorable home matchup against the hapless Houston Texans. In Week 8, we took an admittedly risky opportunity to pick against a young quarterback making his first career start, but a 13-point blown lead in the fourth quarter ended our string of good fortune.
For the remainder of the NFL season, we will simply be outlining our top few eliminator options for those who remain in their tournaments. If there are specific games that you would like to see included in this piece in future weeks, please reach out to @DelphiCommish on Twitter.
Week 1: Los Angeles Rams
Week 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 3: Denver Broncos
Week 4: Buffalo Bills
Week 5: Dallas Cowboys
Week 6: Kansas City Chiefs
Week 7: Arizona Cardinals
Week 8: Cincinnati Bengals
Each week in this article, we discuss red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when considering options for a survivor league:
1. Intra-division games
2. Prime Time games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week
In Week 14, there are six teams favored by 8.5 points or more—the Green Bay Packers (-11.5), Denver Broncos (-10), Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5), Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5), Seattle Seahawks (-8.5), and Tennessee Titans (-8.5). Let’s take a closer look at each contest to see which are the safest, and which are the most risky options for Week 14.
Safest Survivor Picks for NFL Week 14
Packers (vs. Bears)
Aaron Rodgers owns the Chicago Bears, and he knows it. In Week 6, Rodgers created a media firestorm when he shouted at Bears fans in the back of the end zone after scoring a game-clinching touchdown. Though a bit cocky, what Rodgers said was not untrue. In his career, he is 20-7 against the spread and 22-5 straight up when playing Chicago. The Packers are the better team on both sides of the ball in this contest. The fact that this is a division battle is not enough of a red flag to warrant bettors going in a different direction.
Broncos (vs. Lions)
The Detroit Lions are coming off of a thrilling walk-off victory against the Minnesota Vikings, but there is unlikely to be a celebration two weeks in a row in the Motor City. Detroit is dealing with a flu bug in the locker room this week, which has caused numerous members of the team, including Jared Goff and Penei Sewell, to miss practice. Missed practice time, and perhaps missing players on Sunday are going to make it difficult to beat a well-coached, fundamentally sound Denver Broncos team on the road. Denver is a safe bet to secure a win this weekend.
Chargers (vs. Giants)
The Los Angeles Chargers have been one of the most volatile teams in the NFL this season, evident by the fact that they have alternated wins and losses across their last six contests. Still, this is one of the most talented rosters in the league. Even the potential absence of Keenan Allen is nowhere near enough cause for bettors to be alarmed heading into Sunday’s matchup against the New York Giants. New York has scored 13 points or less in three consecutive weeks coming off of their bye. It is highly unlikely that the Giants will be able to keep pace in this one. Take the Chargers with confidence.
Chiefs (vs. Raiders)
The Kansas City Chiefs continue to win football games, despite the lackluster play of Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes has thrown for either zero or one touchdown five of his last six games, with four interceptions during that span. Still, the Chiefs defense has shown tremendous growth over the last month of action. Kansas City has held five straight opponents to 17 points or less. Playing a reeling Las Vegas team on Sunday, this defense should once again be able to will this team to victory. Any positive contributions from Mahomes are just icing on the cake.
Survivor Pool Upset Watch
Each week, we will examine one or two teams that are a heavy favorite and discuss why they could be a slightly more risky option than the other teams that people are considering in their survivor and eliminator pools. In Week 4, we identified the eight-point favorite Baltimore Ravens as being on upset alert. It took a 4th and 19 conversion on the final drive and an NFL record 66-yard field goal as time expired for them to avoid a loss to the underdog Detroit Lions. In Week 5, we said to beware of the Cincinnati Bengals, who trailed 14-0 at halftime and only barely squeaked out a 24-21 victory on Thursday Night Football. In Week 6, we once again said to prepare for a stressful day if selecting the Ravens, who trailed by 16 points in the fourth quarter against the Colts. In Week 7, we warned bettors not to fall for the bait on the Buffalo Bills, who were touchdown favorites but ended up losing outright to the Tennessee Titans. In Week 8, we told you to stay away from the Kansas City Chiefs, who trailed by 17-14 late into the fourth quarter. Stay away from these stressful situations when you can help it. In Week 11, we told bettors to be wary of both the Cleveland Browns and the Tennessee Titans. Cleveland narrowly held on for a three-point victory. Despite entering play with the best record in the NFL, the Titans lost to the Houston Texans, who entered play with the worst record in the AFC.
Let’s take a look at this week’s two big favorites that could be in for a tougher contest than oddsmakers are suggesting.
Seahawks (vs. Texans)
Prior to defeating the banged-up San Francisco 49ers in Week 13 in a divisional battle, the Seattle Seahawks had lost three games in a row and six of their last seven overall. Even the return of Russell Willson had failed to help get in the win column. The Seahawks go on the road this weekend to play one of the worst teams in football. The market is overreacting to their win, and underreacting to the fact that Houston lost by 31 points to the Indianapolis Colts last week. This is far from a safe option for bettors.
Titans (vs. Jaguars)
Per Jared Smith, the Tennessee Titans are only 3-6 against the spread under Head Coach Mike Vrabel when favored by seven or more points. The Titans are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL at this point in the season. Tennessee ranks in the bottom half of the league on both sides of the ball and has a point differential of only +14, despite owning an 8-4 record. The Jacksonville Jaguars are far from a good football team, but they could surprise some people with a competitive effort in this one.
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