2020 NFL Week 16 Lines and Betting Picks at Online Sportsbooks
With just two weeks left in the regular season, the NFL brings us four straight days of football, starting on Christmas Day when the New Orleans Saints host the Minnesota Vikings and concluding with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Bills and Patriots Here’s a look at NFL Week 16 lines and betting picks at online sportsbooks I’m locking in right now.
Week 15 Results (3-2 ATS)
NFL Week 16 Betting Lines
NFL Week 16 Betting Picks
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
It looks like we were able to snag some value by betting the Saints -6 via the lookahead lines last Saturday. Against the Chiefs, the Saints made the score look a lot closer than the actual game was, but Drew Brees first performance back from a rib injury left a lot to be desired. Despite a lackluster outing from the future Hall-of-Famer, oddsmakers reopened this line Saints -7, which is what I expected. Meanwhile, the Vikings’ loss to Mitch Trubisky and the Chicago Bears practically eliminated them from the NFC wild-card race. They aren’t mathematically out of it yet, but they need more than a Christmas miracle to make the postseason.
Given Brees’ struggles and the possibility that the Vikings try to preserve Dalvin Cook a little more in these final two weeks now that their playoff hopes are shot, I’m betting the Under.
[Week 16 Pick: Under 52 at PointsBet]
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Neither the Broncos nor the Chargers have yielded profits for bettors this season, but the Chargers at least have a quarterback. Throwing for just 132 yards against the Bills, Drew Lock continued to show why he’s not the answer in Denver. I suspect we’ll see lines popping up for who will be Denver’s next starting quarterback pretty soon. Stafford? Maybe Wentz? I’m not sure, but I bet Elway will find a way to screw it up.
For now we’ll just have to decide who we’d rather bet against, Anthony Lynn or Lock? Maybe it’s recency bias but I won’t make the same mistake I did last week when I took the Broncos +6.5 against the Bills. No, no, no — give me Herbert -3 against Lock all day. This line is currently -3 at FanDuel and PointsBet but -3.5 elsewhere. I expect the Chargers to close as -3.5-point favorites at most sportsbooks by Sunday.
If we want to dig a little deeper with GridironIQ, a couple of the Chargers’ tendencies make this an intriguing game to PointsBet. Remember, PointsBetting is a way to win big when you think there might be a blowout. The reason why this game might be ripe for a blowout is due to the Chargers’ pace, which ranks 2nd in the NFL when playing with a lead. Moreover, the Chargers let it fly with Herbert 54.76% of the time when they lead by seven or more points. The one downside to this matchup is that the Broncos are in the top-third of defenses when it comes to their opponents’ Success Rate and EPA on passing plays.
[Week 16 Pick: Chargers -3 at PointsBet]
Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers
We’ll have a Sunday Night Football betting preview, with props, game-specific promos, etc., later this weekend, but for now I’m just going to say this is a pretty bad matchup for Packers.
When you look at the Packers schedule, they’ve only beaten one likely playoff team. Their three losses have all come against formidable running games: the Vikings, Bucs, and Colts. In fact, all three teams rushed for at least 140 yards against the Packers.
Remarkably, Derrick Henry leads the league in rushing by nearly 200 yards over Dalvin Cook. Thanks to Henry, the Titans are 2nd in Rush Success Rate and 3rd in EPA Rush, while running the ball at the fourth-highest clip in the NFL. Take the Titans +3.5 while you can. The line has already shortened a half-point, and it won’t surprise me if it’s +3 come Sunday night.
[Week 16 Pick: Titans +3.5 at BetMGM]
Check back for additional NFL betting tips throughout the week!
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