2020 NFL Week 15 Lines & Betting Picks at Online Sportsbooks

by Matt Schmitto (schmitto) Last Updated 2020-12-18 20:21:28

NFL Week 15 lines are already out and moving fast at online sportsbooks. If you read this article on Saturday, you know there were three Week 15 lookahead lines I locked in before things kicked off last Sunday. We’ll see if those early bets look to be +EV relative to updated Week 15 lines, which oddsmakers reopened on Monday, but first let’s review last week’s betting card.

NFL Week 14 Picks Review

• ATS & Over/Under: 7-4
• Player Props: 2-1
• Specialty Props (ex: 1st TD): 0-1
• Overall Week 14 Record: 8-6

2020 NFL Betting Trends

• Away Teams 107-100 ATS
• Underdogs 116-91 ATS
• Over/Under 98-106

NFL Week 15 Lines

NFL Week 15 Betting Picks

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (Thu.)

Lookahead Line: Raiders -3.5

The Raiders need a win against this division rival if they are to keep their playoff hopes alive, but an injury bug on defense could make things difficult Thursday night. For more on this game, including an injury report, matchup breakdown, player prop analyses and picks, read our Chargers vs. Raiders Thursday Night Football betting preview!

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos

Lookahead Line: Bills -5.5

There’s nothing fun about betting on the Denver Broncos, especially not this year. Denver is only 4-8 ATS as the Drew Lock experiment has not yielded the results John Elway had hoped. It’s tough to win games win your quarterback throws as many interceptions as he does touchdowns. So why on earth am I betting on the Broncos against the Bills? I’m not always a “fade the public” guy, but this does smell like a fishy spot for Buffalo and Josh Allen. Despite the team’s overall struggles, Denver still has a top-ten DVOA against the pass. Allen has done a better job protecting the ball in 2020 than in previous seasons, but he could revert to his turnover-prone ways as he travels to Mile High Stadium. The Broncos running game should have their way with a Bills front seven that has allowed the sixth-highest EPA on running plays and the fourth-highest rush success rate, per GridironIQ; let’s just hope Lock can keep the turnovers to a minimum.

[Week 15 Pick: Broncos +6.5]

Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts

Lookahead Line: Colts -6

The Texans’ problems have grown significantly over the last couple of weeks. First, the NFL suspended Will Fuller for the remainder of the season, then one week later, Houston was forced to play without wide receiver Brandin Cooks and running back David Johnson. The result? A nearly 30-point loss to Mitch Trubisky. The embarrassing performance helped us hit the under in that game, and I have not made a habit of betting on the Texans, so there are no grievances on my end…at least not yet.

This week, the Texans are expected to return Johnson and Cooks. Considering the receiving options available to Watson in Chicago, Cooks’ presence will do wonders for the passing game. When it comes down to it, though, the Texans are getting 1.5 points more than they were from the lookahead line less than seven days ago. That’s at least a half-point too generous.

[NFL Week 15 Pick: Texans +7.5]

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

Lookahead Line: Dolphins -2.5

This pick is from one of my favorite sports betting podcasts, Bet The Process. Both hosts, Rufus Peabody and Jeff Ma, think the Patriots should be favored against the Dolphins, and their guest, ESPN’s Preston Johnson, also leans toward betting Patriots +2. That’s good enough for me. Listen to the full episode for more sharp football takes from the trio.

[NFL Week 15 Pick: Patriots +2]

Early NFL Week 15 Betting Picks

Note: These picks were made and written on Saturday, Dec. 12. The lines have since changed at online sportsbooks.

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers

Lookahead Line: Packers -8.5

Update 12/15: This game reopened identical to the lookahead line, so we didn’t gain or lose much by locking in our bet early. However, as you can see using our line comparison tool above, the Panthers are +9 at BetMGM as of 2pm ET on Tuesday. It’s possible Christian McCaffrey might return, which could shorten this spread a little bit. If he’s given the opportunity, McCaffrey would fare pretty well against a Packers defense that is vulnerable against running backs.

12/12/20: The Packers open up as 8.5-point favorites, but I don’t see this line stretching much further. For one, the Packers play the Lions on Sunday. No one is going to be impressed if they blow them out. However, the Lions could surprise the Packers in their second divisional matchup of the year. It was just over a month ago when the Vikings upset the Packers as 5.5-point underdogs, which also happened to be the second game between the two. Meanwhile, the Panthers host the Broncos as 3.5-point favorites in Week 14. Carolina also could return Christian McCaffrey in Week 15, which would spell trouble for a Packers defense that has consistently struggled to slow down running backs in 2020.

[Lookahead Pick (12/12): Panthers +8.5]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

Lookahead Line: Falcons +3

Update 12/15: Okay, we were able to grab some significant value by betting on this lookahead line, which was Bucs -3. Now the the spread is stretched to +5.5. I won’t be adding anything here, but if you are interested in this game be sure to keep an eye on Julio Jones status. Read below to see what I had to say about this game last weekend.

12/12/20: The Buccaneers have lost three of their last four games, but the losses were against some of the league’s most formidable opponents: the Saints, Chiefs, and Rams. The Bucs have an excellent opportunity to make a statement against a hot Vikings team on Sunday, while the Falcons, who are playing without Julio Jones, could easily slip up on their road trip to face the Chargers. Maybe Jones will come back against the Bucs; perhaps he won’t. We’ll have to wait and see. I do think this line presumes Jones will be active.

I’m not too concerned about any unexpected injuries for the Bucs, a team that brings with them plenty of depth at receiver now that they’ve added Antonio Brown.

I’m picking the Bucs to cover the 6.5-point spread against the Vikings and Falcons to fall to the Chargers in Week 14. I’ll stick to the script and go ahead and lock in the Bucs to beat the the Falcons by more than three points next week as well.

[Lookahead Pick (12/12): Buccaneers -3]

Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints

Lookahead Line: Saints +3

Update 12/15: Oddsmakers reopened Kansas City -4 early Monday morning, but the line has fallen back between -2.5 and -3.5, with prices varying between sportsbooks, as of Tuesday afternoon. There’s an outside chance Drew Brees returns in Week 15, but that doesn’t worry me too much. Bet on the Chiefs -3 or better. And as always, use our NFL odds comparison tool to shop lines and find the best price for your NFL bets.

12/12/20: Remember when I said that bettors can use lookahead lines to their advantage and find closing line value (CLV)? That’s exactly what we did with the Chiefs seven days before their Week 12 game against the Bucs. Previewing the Chiefs-Raiders Sunday Night Football game, I wrote, “Go ahead and grab Chiefs -2.5 vs. the Bucs in Week 12 if you can find it. It also might not be a bad idea to bet on Mahomes +180 to win NFL MVP.” (We also pointed out the seame spread when the NFL schedule was released in the spring.) Both were good decisions. Patrick Mahomes is now the prohibitive favorite to win the NFL MVP award at -500, but more importantly, the decision to bet on the Chiefs a week ahead of time was the difference between a winner and loser (at least for our purposes). The lookahead line favored Kansas City by 2.5 points against Tampa, but oddsmakers reopened the Chiefs -3.5 after the Bucs lost to the Rams on Monday Night Football. The following week, the Chiefs’ 27-24 victory over the Bucs fell right between the two numbers.

I think we’ll see something similar happen to the Week 15 line against the Saints. I already bet on the Chiefs -7 against Miami, a bet I like even more now that Myles Gaskin is out. I expect the Chiefs to roll, and the fact that either Taysom Hill or an over-the-hill Drew Brees will be a merely a three-point underdog to the Chiefs is laughable.

[Lookahead Pick (12/12): Chiefs -3]

NFL Week 15 Betting Card

Check back as we update this article with more matchup previews, news, picks and NFL betting tips throughout the week!

Image Credit: Imagn