Best NFL Week 16 Player Props at Online Sportsbooks
Week 15 was not our best. Dropping two prop picks and only cashing on Deshaun Watson over, we lost a bit more than a unit. Looking to rebound on a small slate of games, I turn my attention to a couple of very exploitable matchups and a quarterback in very, very poor form. I might jump on the soapbox late in the article. I promise it will be worth it to close out this week’s favorite player prop picks across the NFL.
Make sure to check out our Week 16 Betting Lines and Picks and some NFL betting tips before diving into the action at online sportsbooks. Let’s get started.
NFL Week 16 Player Props — QB Pick
Ben Roethlisberger Over/Under 274.5 Passing Yards
Were the Steelers the worst 11-0 football team in the history of the NFL? A little hyperbolic? Yes. Really far from the truth? Probably not. In a matter of three weeks, the Steelers went from contending for the top seed in the AFC to potentially not winning the AFC North.
Losses to the Football Team and the Bills weren’t horrendous as both teams might be playing in the postseason. Yet, a loss to the Bengals on Monday night was, in fact, horrendous. Over the last three games, the Steelers average 16.3 points while only amassing 329 total yards per game.
A big part of the struggles on offense can be attributed to the poor play by Ben Roethlisberger and his array of uber-talented receivers. Over the last three weeks, Big Ben produced a 57.81% completion rate and passed for a measly 240.1 passing yards per game. Yet, online betting sites want me to believe he will throw for better than 273 yards?
I am not a believer. The Colts’ defense is probably the best of the recent bunch. While the Steelers need a win in the worst way, the Colts need a victory to keep their AFC South title hopes alive. I’ll take the under at BetMGM — the highest yardage prop with the best price.
My Pick: Under 274.5 Passing Yards -110 at BetMGM
NFL Week 16 Player Props — RB Pick
Miles Sanders Over/Under 17.5 Receiving Yards
When I reviewed the Sunday afternoon slate and combed through the games, my eyes widened when I saw the Eagles played in Dallas. A weather-controlled environment for Miles Sanders with a quarterback capable of moving the ball downfield. The Eagles are making headlines for the way the Carson Wentz situation is playing out. While all of the drama unfolds and questions about Wentz’s future continue to monopolize press conferences, Jalen Hurts has — at the minimum — ignited the Eagles’ offense.
So, given the inefficacy of the Cowboys’ rushing defense (worst or bottom of the league and several metrics), the rushing props across the betting industry for Sanders’ are bloated. Eighty yards or greater in many spots, Miles Sanders might be a great DFS play this week but not quite hit the over on that yardage prop. Given his explosive nature, I am not taking the under.
However, his receiving prop at DraftKings intrigues me. Sanders eclipsed this 17.5-yard mark in both of Hurts’ starts for the Eagles — with one catch in the Cardinals matchup. Sanders really needs one big catch and run to crush this prop but should receive a few looks throughout the game. While the Eagles aren’t playing for much at all, Sanders seems reinvigorated with the openings created by Hurts’ athleticism.
I will take the over at DraftKings for the lowest yardage line.
My Pick: Over 17.5 Receiving Yards -112 at DraftKings
NFL Week 16 Player Props — WR Pick
Austin Hooper Over/Under 24.5 Receiving Yards
Well, the big problem with last week’s column wasn’t that I picked the wrong plays. No. The process of making selections was sound (wait for the bit). Sometimes, variance just burns you. Variance also burns you when you don’t stick to a new article institution that brought plenty of good karma. Still reading? Good. We need to reinstitute this construct before the NFL season ends. Austin Hooper is… the Mjolnir play of the week.
Thor’s hammer loves the over on this yardage prop. The Jets are, well, they are the worst…
Did you expect me to add anything? The Jets are the worst. No qualifiers are required. The Jets are bad at offense, defense, and continue to crush the hearts of us poor souls that continue to hope for a potential SuperBowl run before we breathe our last breath. For all of us that hoped our children would eventually sit huddled in the living room one day with their battle-weathered parents and watch Trevor Lawrence hoist the Lombardi Trophy over his head. Stupid Jets.
The Jets dash dreams… and allow big games from the tight end position. Allowing north of 900 yards on 74 catches, I am very, very, very confident that Austin Hooper is going to absolutely destroy this receiving prop on Sunday. Hooper will be a really popular DFS play in cash games and is primed for a strong game.
Give me the over. Big time. Stupid Jets…
My Pick: Over 24.5 Receiving Yards -105 at BetMGM.
Enjoy the remainder of your holiday weekend, everyone. Good luck with your player props. Share your prop picks with Joe on Twitter @JoeCistaro.
2020 NFL Player Props Record: 27 – 17
Net Units on One-Unit Bets: +7.71
Image Credit: Imagn