Best NFL Week 17 Player Props at Online Sportsbooks
The final week of the regular season is upon us. Seeking a great finish, sweeping the final week of the season would prime us for a nice run in the playoffs. I went 2 for 3 last week with Big Ben surmounting his passing prop because of a massive early deficit to the Colts. We picked up a marginal amount of shekels and hope to clean up this week. Here are my favorite player props for a very, very news-sensitive Week 17.
Make sure to check out our Week 17 Betting Lines and Picks and some NFL betting tips before diving into the action at online sportsbooks. Let’s get started.
NFL Week 17 Player Props — QB Pick
Tom Brady Over/Under 306.5 Passing Yards
When sifting through the limited number of player props available at online betting sites on Saturday morning, I am looking for the most motivation I can possibly find to justify any projections available to me. So, when checking RotoGrinders’ excellent GridironIQ tool, I am not shocked to see that Tom Brady passing projection is far below the lines offered across sites.
Brady exploded in Week 16 against a Detroit team that was very content to just get the week over with. In one half of play, Brady amassed 348 yards and was the top fantasy scorer of the week even though he only played two quarters. Remarkable. The Falcons’ defense is not good but seems to be performing better over the last few weeks under the watch of interim coach Raheem Morris.
The Buccaneers seem locked in the 5th playoff spot but could move down a notch with a loss and a Rams win. While that permutation seems unlikely, The Brady and company will look to sew up a victory early for another potential breather. Further, Ronald Jones got in a full practice and is poised to retake his position as the lead back for Tampa Bay. Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette could share the work throughout the game to limit Brady’s reps and hits.
While I don’t think the Bucs will be resting anyone unless this game gets out of hands, this passing total is pretty huge. I would be shocked if Brady accumulates this much yardage in a near-meaningless Week 17 game. Book the under.
My Pick: Under 306.5 Passing Yards -110 at BetMGM
NFL Week 17 Player Props — RB Pick
Jonathan Taylor Over/Under 78.5 Rushing Yards
Speaking of motivation, the Indianapolis Colts will be highly motivated to beat the Jaguars in Week 17. Despite possessing 10 wins, the Colts find themselves needing help to make the postseason in a year with 7 spots! The Colts will play against a Jaguars team that has already locked up the top pick in the draft. James Robinson, D.J. Chark, and Gardner Minshew will not play in this contest — the Colts should roll. That said, pundits should be very careful assuming the Jaguars will not play hard. With no consequence for winning (damn Jets), the players suiting up for the Jags will be playing hard for pride and tape. The Colts will be taking this game seriously with all of the main cogs getting a full workload. Moreover, most — if not all — of the games of any consequence will kick off at the same time. That wouldn’t matter for the Colts, anyway, who need a victory to clinch a playoff berth.
Jonathan Taylor out-carried Nyheim Hines 18-8 last week against the Steelers and was scripted for additional looks according to his head coach. Philip Rivers being forced to audible took a few touches away from the rookie who has been tearing it up over the last few weeks. Taylor boasts a 5.9 yards per attempt average over the last four weeks with five rushing touchdowns. One cannot be sure if Taylor needed more time to become familiar with the offense or if they were keeping him fresh for a late-season run. In a must-win game, though, I cannot fathom a gameplan for the Colts that does not feature the hyper-talented rookie.
Even if they are playing hard, the Jaguars are lacking the talent required to compete with a highly-motivated Colts team. I expect Taylor to see nearly 20 (or more) carries and eclipse this rushing total en route to a Colts win. I will take the over.
My Pick: Over 78.5 Rushing Yards -112 at FanDuel
NFL Week 17 Player Props — WR Pick
Davante Adams Over/Under 87.5 Receiving Yards
Despite a likely top seed and bye in the playoffs, the Packers are pretty motivated going into Week 17. A victory clinches the top seed in the NFC. Aaron Rodgers is -400 to win the NFL MVP (Draftkings Sportsbook). With Patrick Mahomes sitting, another top performance from Rodgers virtually locks up the MVP award. Standing in the Packers’ way? The Chicago Bears.
The Bears are equally (if not more) motivated as the Packers heading into Week 17. The Bears (8-7) clinch a playoff berth with a win or a Cardinals’ loss. Arizona will play the also-motivated Rams at the same time the Bears and Packers play in Chicago. The Bears’ defense is the strength of the team — allowing a measly 17 points per game over the last few weeks.
While the Bears’ defense poses a big challenge, the Packers’ offense is on fire as of late — taking over the NFL lead in scoring offense after a weak outing from the Chiefs. The Packers lost tackle David Bakhtiari for the season last week; Rodgers will likely need to get the ball out quickly to avoid pressure. Davante Adams is making a case — after a three-touchdown performance — for the label as best wide receiver in the NFL coming into the week with a glimmer of hope for the most receiving yards in the NFL (despite missing a couple of weeks). Stefon Diggs will likely earn that nod given his lead but don’t fool yourself into thinking that Aaron Rodgers does not know that Adams could get there with a big day. If Diggs has a pedestrian outing at 1:00 PM versus the Dolphins, look for Adams to see a huge share of targets.
The Bears’ defense is imposing and very talented. With Davante Adams, though, the matchup does not really matter. Aaron Rodgers will look to put a stamp on his MVP campaign with a great passing day channeling through his top target. Give me the over to close out a final week sweep.
My Pick: Over 87.5 Receiving Yards -108 at FanDuel
Happy New Year! Let’s kick off 2021 with a bang. Good luck with your player props. Share your prop picks with Joe on Twitter @JoeCistaro.
2020 NFL Player Props Record: 29 – 18
Net Units on One-Unit Bets: +8.55
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