2020 NFL Week 17 Lines and Betting Picks at Online Sportsbooks
The end of the 2020 regular season is near, as online sportsbooks open NFL Week 17 betting lines.
Making Week 17 picks will be a bit different of a process, requring us to assess teams’ motivations, stay up to date on the news (more so than usual), and play somewhat of a guessing game when the information isn’t entirely clear.
Before we look at the lines, let’s quickly review results from Week 16 and the season’s betting trends.
NFL Week 16 Review
- Week 16 Lookahead Picks: 1-2
- Week 16 Picks: 0-2-1
It wasn’t our best showing, but hopefully Joe Cistaro eased the pain with a clean Sunday Night Football sweep, including a +525 First Touchdown bet, and a couple of winning player props.
2020 NFL betting Trends
- Away teams are 123-117 against the spread (51%)
- Underdogs are 133-107 against the spread (55.6%)
- Over/Under 117-120
NFL Week 17 Betting Lines
Use RotoGrinders’ NFL odds tool to look at NFL Week 17 lines across online sportsbooks.
NFL Week 17 Betting Picks
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Don’t ask me how — but despite being 5-10 and 6-9, respectively, the Giants and the Cowboys both remain in the playoff race entering their final game. The winner will be crowned NFC East champions if the Washington Football Team loses to Philadelphia on Sunday night. So regardless of the outcome, NFL schedule makers left us with something worth watching on Sunday Night Football.
If you’re wondering which teams’ fans will, momentarily, be Philadelphia Eagles fans, my bet is on the Cowboys. Dallas looked as good as they have all season against the Eagles in Week 16, and Andy Dalton showed why he might be the best second-string quarterback in the NFL, throwing for three touchdowns and nearly 400 yards.
After a loss to the Ravens in Week 13, the Cowboys had less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs, per ESPN’s Football power index. Since then, the Cowboys have rallied to win three straight. Coming against the Bengals, an injury-riddled roster in San Francisco and most recently the Eagles, the wins aren’t exactly impressive but it’s the best stretch of football Dallas has played all season.
One big change for the Cowboys has come on defense. Dallas has forced ten turnovers in December alone, while Dalton and the rest of the offense have done a much better job protecting the ball themselves. Not only are the Cowboys winning the turnover battle, but they’re also scoring points. Turning to the passing game even more, Dallas has managed to average 36 points during their last three games.
The turnovers probably aren’t sustainable, but the Cowboys are getting healthier and the offense is finally clicking. Did I mention Dalton gets a $1M bonus if they make the playoffs?
NFL Week 17 Pick: Cowboys -2.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
The big question in this game is whether the Steelers will play their starters. Judging by this Week 17 betting line (Browns -7), it’s safe to say the presumption behind the counter is that they won’t.
The Chiefs have the 1-seed wrapped up, and the Steelers have a first-round home game regardless of Sunday’s outcome; however, a win against the Browns could mean the difference between the 2-seed or the 3-seed. But the 2-seed might not be enticing enough to put Steelers’ starters on the field since the Bills have the tiebreaker for the 2-seed if they beat the Dolphins (Note: Steelers and Bills both play at 1 pm ET Sunday).
It’s worth noting in this conversation that the Steelers haven’t truly had a bye week all season. This wouldn’t exactly be a bye week, either, but some of the Steelers’ starters could use a week to rejuvenate.
Meanwhile, the Browns hope to return receivers Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, and Donavon Peoples-Jones after the entire receiving corps sat out against the Jets due to COVID-19 protocols. None of those players actually tested positive, so it’s safe to expect them on the field against the Steelers.
While I expect the Steelers to rest key starters, there’s a little too much uncertainty for me to lay 7 points with the Browns. Instead, I prefer taking Over 42.5 points. The Browns defense is nothing to be scared of, even if the Steelers turn to their backups. Cleveland has allowed 131 points over the last four weeks, during a span where the Jets and Giants made up half of their opponents. If Tomlin surprises us by starting Ben Roethlisberger & Co. the Steelers ought to carry momentum from a 28-point performance against Indianapolis and put some points on the board against Cleveland. I think this bet leaves us in decent shape regardless of how the Steelers approach Week 17.
*Update: The Steelers will give Mason Rudolph the Week 17 start.
NFL Week 17 Pick: Over 42.5 Points
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
With double-digit wins in three of their last four games, while averaging 37 points during that span, the Ravens are beginning to look like the team we expected to see at the beginning of the 2020 season. Better late than never; however, there’s still some work left to do.
That work won’t necessarily come easy against a team that wants to end their season with a third-consecutive win…or will it?
The Ravens held the Bengals to three points in their first meeting, and that was when Joe Burrow was still healthy. Now the Bengals are playing with Brandon Allen, who, despite an impressive showing against the Texans, doesn’t have a lot of hope against an aggressive Ravens pass rush.
Even though this is an 11.5-point spread, I still think we’re getting somewhat of a “buy-low” opportunity on a team that has underachieved for most of the season but appears to be clicking at just the right time.
NFL Week 17 Pick: Ravens -11.5
Check back for more NFL betting tips, news, and Week 17 picks between now and Sunday.
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