NFL Week 2 Odds & Best Bets: Against the Spread, Over/Under, NFL Futures
One week down, 17 to go. The second week of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, which is where our best NFL Week 2 bets begin. Our contributors have perused odds at sportsbooks from top to bottom in search of value. Follow along as they deliver their favorite spread, over/under, and NFL futures pick for Week 2.
NFL Week 2 Odds and Best Bets
New York Giants vs. Washington Football, OVER 40.5 (-110)
By Andy Means
When I first saw this matchup for Thursday Night Football, my initial instinct was to look at the under. No Ryan Fitzpatrick for WFT, Thursday Night Football games tend to be ugly, etc. But then I looked at Scores and Odds saw where all the money is, and it’s making me swerve to the over now that the line has come down in light of the Fitzpatrick news. While only 53% of the bets are on the over, a whopping 85% of the money is on the over, suggesting that there are some big, hopefully sharp, bettors who think this is going over the point total. So even if these offenses struggle to move the ball, I’m counting on one or two big turnovers from the defenses to help get us there. An over bet on Thursday Night Football with one team starting it’s backup quarterback…what could go wrong!
Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-130) at Baltimore Ravens, PointsBet
By Nick Galaida
The Kansas City Chiefs did not play well in Week 1 against the Cleveland Browns, but still managed to escape with a victory. After trailing 22-10 at the half, Patrick Mahomes. Tyreek Hill, and Chris Jones took over the game to secure a four-point victory in a game that looked to be settled in Cleveland’s favor on multiple occasions. The Baltimore Ravens will play this matchup on short rest after an embarrassing loss to the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football. If the Ravens defense is going to surrender 33 points to Derek Carr, it is difficult to imagine them holding Mahomes and company to under 30. Having a depleted offensive line, a quarterback that struggles to throw the ball down-the-field, and a mediocre defense—Baltimore likely does not have enough to keep up in this matchup.
Dak Prescott 18-1 to Win NFL MVP, Caesars Sportsbook
By Matt Schmitto
I’m leaving the game picks to my much sharper colleagues, but I’m happy to touch on an NFL MVP bet that I think has value ahead of Week 2: Dak Prescott 18-1.
The Cowboys were just a field goal short of knocking off Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl champions in hostile territory last Thursday. If they had won, Prescott would be closer to 10-1 than 20-1. You may point to the fact that they lost the game while winning the turnover margin by three or that the defense gave up 6.7 yards per play as reasons to doubt the Cowboys and thus Dak’s MVP chances. That’s all fair, but don’t forget that the NFC East became significantly easier after Washington placed Ryan Fitzpatrick on the IR with a hip injury. Fitzpatrick will likely return by the time the Cowboys and Washington meet later in the year, but Washington has back-to-back road trips to Buffalo and Atlanta following this week’s Thursday Night Football game against the Giants. Then they begin the most brutal stretch of their schedule, playing the Saints, Chiefs, at Packers, and at Broncos. Will Fitzpatrick be able to play in three weeks? Who knows.
Presuming the Cowboys win the NFC East, will a division title suffice for a plurality of MVP votes for Prescott? Maybe not. Looking back at MVP trends we see that of the last 20 season only one NFL MVP winner has played on a team with fewer than 11 wins. It’s worth noting that the Cowboys have a difficult road trip against the Chargers in Week 2. A loss wouldn’t drastically hurt their division odds, but it would make 11 wins a reach. However, I think a division title could suffice if Prescott leads the league in passing yards and/or touchdowns. Voters aren’t machines basing their votes on algorithms. They’re a mix of writers and former athletes/coaches turned-pundits — people like Mike Tirico, Tony Dungy, and Rodney Harrison, all of whom have their own biases. These voters are well aware of Prescott’s feel-good story, a narrative that is sure to pull at their heartstrings if he’s in the MVP conversation down the stretch. More analytical voters like Aaron Schnatz of Football Outsiders are also likely to recognize Prescott’s value if the Cowboys host a playoff game in spite of their defensive woes.
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