NFL MVP Market Report: Updated Odds & Best Bets Ahead of Week 2
Defending MVP Aaron Rodgers struggles, former MVP Patrick Mahomes goes off, and aspiring MVP Russell Wilson starts hot again. Now, here’s what NFL MVP odds look like across the sports betting industry ahead of Week 2.
NFL MVP Betting Odds — Week 2
- Patrick Mahomes +600
- Matthew Stafford +800
- Tom Brady +900
- Kyler Murray +900
- Josh Allen +1200
- Dak Prescott +1500
- Russell Wilson +1500
- Aaron Rodgers +1500
- Justin Herbert +2000
- Lamar Jackson +2300
- Jalen Hurts +3000
- Baker Mayfield +3000
- Jameis Winston +3000
- Kirk Cousins +5000
- Joe Burrow +5000
- Derek Carr +5000
- Christian McCaffrey +5000
- Teddy Bridgewater +6000
- Derrick Henry +6000
Biggest Risers & Fallers
The name that probably jumped out to me the most on the above list was Matthew Stafford, who already finds himself with the second shortest odds. Sunday morning before the Week 1 games started, Stafford was sitting at +1700 on FanDuel. And now after shredding the Bears defense (20 for 26, 321 yards, 3 TDs) on Sunday Night Football for the whole world to see, he is sitting at +800.
Kyler Murray was arguably the most impressive quarterback in Week 1, racking up 5 total touchdowns (four in the air and one with his legs) and 309 yards (289 passing and 20 rushing). So it’s no surprise that his MVP odds moved quite a bit too. Whereas he was sitting at +2300 on FanDuel on Sunday morning, he now has the fourth shortest odds at +900.
Jalen Hurts is another name that saw his stock rise after a stellar debut to the 2021 regular season. Last week, Hurts was sitting in the +5500 range. He then went into Atlanta and helped the Eagles absolutely dominate the Falcons, 32-6. The final stat line for Hurts? 27 for 35, 264 passing yards, 3 TDs, and he also added another 7 rushes for 62 yards with his legs. As a result, the odds for Hurts moved substantially as well…all the way to +3000 in fact.
Jameis Winston also finds his MVP odds now sitting at +3000 (he was +4500 a week ago or so). He and the Saints absolutely wrecked the Packers on Sunday, 38-3, with Jameis throwing for an amazing 5 touchdowns on just 20 attempts.
Fallers
Speaking of the Packers! Yikes, Aaron Rodgers. And no, I’m not talking about your mullet. If you play fantasy football, you probably know by now that Rodgers was outscored in Week 1 by even a handful of reserve quarterbacks. That’s what happens when your stat line reads: 15 for 28, 133 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT. Rodgers entered Week 1 with the third shortest odds on FanDuel (+1000), and he exited Week 2 with the eighth shortest odds (+1500). Like I said…yikes!
Best Bets
Using our handy odds comparison tool at Scores and Odds, you are able to find the best value on whoever it is you are speculating to be the next MVP.
Like those Matthew Stafford odds (+800) you saw above on FanDuel? Well, you can get him at +1300 over at Caesars.
Think the subpar performance from Josh Allen (+1200 on FanDuel) in Week 1 was an aberration? Then head to BetMGM, where you can get his MVP odds at +1600.
And those are only a few of the examples!
A name I haven’t mentioned yet might be one of my favorites: Russell Wilson. There are NFL fans out there that are absolutely astonished when they learn that Russ hasn’t won an MVP yet. And while I’m not exactly in that camp, the fact that he hasn’t won one yet should actually help his case. Everyone loves a good narrative—especially the media—and Russ leading the Seahawks to one of the best records in the league (in the toughest division) would set him up perfectly to win his first MVP.
Week 1 was certainly a good start. Under new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, Russ and the Seahawks looked pretty darn sharp on the road against a tough Colts defense. Russ himself was extremely efficient, going 18 for 23 for 254 yards and 4 touchdowns.
On tap next for the Seahawks are the Titans, in what is one of the highest total games in Week 2 (over/under is currently sitting at 53.5). Remember when I talked up above about what Kyler Murray did in Week 1? Yeah, that was against the Titans. They can make all the adjustments they want this week in practice, but Russ should have his way with them just like Kyler did.
So hypothetically, let’s say Russ has another great game this Sunday. Well, then I’d expect him to cross that +1000 threshold and have his name included in the top 2-3 favorites for MVP. So if you are looking to get the best odds on Russ right now, then the move is to head over to BetMGM where he is still sitting at +1600.
Longshots
If you are looking for a longshot, then look no further than Jalen Hurts. If you think that is crazy, well then take a look at this…
Patrick Mahomes was taken with the 10th overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. Mahomes started one game in 2017, which was his only appearance. He then went on to start all 16 games in 2018, throwing for 5,097 yards, 50 TDs, and just 12 INTs, winning the MVP that season in a landslide (41 votes to 9 votes over Drew Brees).
Lamar Jackson was taken with the 32nd overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Lamar started seven games in 2018 (and saw time in all 16 games). He then went on to start in 15 games in 2019 (sat out Week 17), throwing for 3,127 yards, rushing for 1,206 yards, and racking up a total of 43 TDs. Lamar took home the MVP in 2019, receiving all 50 votes.
Jalen Hurts was taken with the 53rd overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Hurts started four games in 2020 and made appearances in 11 other games that season. In Week 1 of the 2021 season, Hurts went 27 for 35, racking up 264 yards and 3 touchdowns (0 INTs). He added another 62 yards with his legs. The Eagles went into Atlanta and absolutely smacked the Falcons, 32-6.
Sooooo, not so crazy is it? The trend is there. The trail has been blazed. The only question is if the Eagles can put up a similar record that the Chiefs (12-4) and Ravens (14-2) did in those respective seasons. Week 1 was certainly a good start, but they obviously have a long way to go.
But c’mon, that’s gotta be worth at least a little sprinkle, right? This is another prime example of the benefits of using the odds comparison tool. Up above, I listed FanDuel odds that have Hurts at +3000. At Caesars though, he is still sitting at +5000! Like I said, that has to be worth a little:
Image Credit: Imagn