NFL Week 2 Survivor Pool Picks, Advice, and Strategy
NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Week 2 Survivor Pool strategy, previewing the safest picks of the week as well as possible upsets.
NFL Week 2 Survivor Strategy and Picks
Traditionally, survivor pools require participants to simply pick the winner of one NFL game straight up each week. The challenging part of eliminator tournaments is that you can only use a team once during the season. In 2021, this means that you will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season, so there will be weeks during which you will not be able to have an elite roster at your disposal.
Week 2 Survivor Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Week 1 Pick: Baltimore Ravens
In Week 1, we recommended burning an elite team to start off the year with a victory – which resulted in a victory. In Week 2, we recommend rolling with another team from the AFC North, the Cincinnati Bengals.
In their season opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati was defeated in an overtime thriller to their intra-division rival. The Bengals still had multiple opportunities to earn a win in that contest, despite Joe Burrow throwing four interceptions and the offensive line allowing seven sacks. Importantly, Cincinnati dominated the time of possession, possessing the ball for 44 minutes compared to 26 minutes for Pittsburgh. If the Bengals can simply limit their turnovers in this contest, their offense should have a much more efficient day at Jerry World than they did in their season opener.
The Dallas Cowboys scored only three points against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and that was with Dak Prescott under center for the majority of the evening. In this matchup against the Bengals, Cooper Rush will be the starting signal caller. Rush was only 7-for-13 for 64 passing yards in relief of Prescott in Week 1. He started only one game in 2021, leading the Dallas offense to a meager 20 points against a Minnesota Vikings defense that ranked near the bottom of the league in most pass defense metrics by the end of the year. Factor in a porous offensive line and a lack of a true number one receiver – Rush and the Cowboys are staring down the barrel of an 0-2 start to the campaign.
Each week in this article, we discuss red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when considering options for a survivor league:
1. Intra-division games
2. Primetime games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week
Week 2 Survivor Fade: Green Bay Packers
Week 1 Fade: Indianapolis Colts (Result Tied 20-20 against the Houston Texans)
The Green Bay Packers enter this matchup as 9.5-point favorites on the spread against the Chicago Bears, but they catch two red flags here that make them a stay-away spot for survivor pools in Week 2 – 1) Intra-division affair; 2) Primetime game.
In his career, Aaron Rodgers is 20-7 against the spread when facing the Bears (including six straight covers). Per Todd Fuhrman, Rodgers has a sterling 23-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in six games against the Bears when playing on Sunday Night Football. Still, this is not the same dominant Green Bay team that bettors have grown accustomed to watching across the last decade.
In Week 1, the Packers were abysmal in all phases of the game in their 23-7 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. An injury-depleted offensive line allowed four sacks and struggled to create much room to run on the ground in key situations. Christian Watson dropped an easy touchdown in the first half, which resulted in a punt. Rodgers ended the day with only 195 passing yards and zero touchdowns. The absence of a premier pass-catcher hurt Green Bay’s ability to move the chains, as they went only 3-for-9 on third-down, which resulted in them losing the time of possession battle.
The Bears are likely to finish with one of the worst records in the league this fall, but they have a safe offensive floor week-to-week due to Justin Fields’ ability to create plays with his legs. If the defense can play reasonably well on Sunday, Green Bay fans could be in for a primetime sweat. Avoid the cheese in Week 2.
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