NFL Week 3 Preseason Odds, Betting Lines: Predictions & Picks
The NFL preseason is nearing its conclusion for the first time since 2019. As we approach the final week of exhibition action, oddsmakers will continue to be in the dark about game plans as much as the betting public will be. This offers NFL betting opportunities on some misprice lines at sportsbooks, so long as we put in the time and research.
Let’s take an early look at three spread bets plus a moneyline pick for Week 3 of the preseason.
Read more: Best NFL Preseason Bets for Friday Night
NFL Preseason Week 3 Betting Picks
Green Bay Packers (+7.5) vs. Buffalo Bills (-7.5)
The Green Bay Packers lost their opening preseason game to the Houston Texans by a final score of 26-7 and then lost again in Week 2 by nine points to the New York Jets. By all accounts, this group does not appear to be taking the preseason all that seriously. On the other hand, the Buffalo Bills defeated the Detroit Lions 16-15 on August 13, and then pummeled the Chicago Bears 41-15 in Week 2. Consequently, oddsmakers seem to believe that Buffalo will once again make an earnest effort to win this game while the Packers won’t. Is that the correct way to approach creating odds?
During the NFL’s exhibition slate, there is far too much uncertainty to justify any team being greater than a touchdown favorite pre-game. Of course, there are more than a few instances where teams cover large spreads, but there is rarely enough insight into game plans and psychological motivations for a line to be this heavy. This line seems to be based entirely off of the results of the first two weeks of action. Sportsbooks struggle to accurately price preseason games, and instead opt to price the public perception on games. It is doubtful that Buffalo is going to play many of their starters, if any, in this final preseason game. Asking a team of backups to cover over a touchdown is a tall order.
Pick: Green Bay Packers +7.5 (-110)
Los Angeles Rams (+8.5) vs Denver Broncos (-8.5)
The Los Angeles Rams lost their exhibition opener to the Los Angeles Chargers by a final score of 13-6. Then, they were defeated by the Las Vegas Raiders 17-16 in Week 2. The Denver Broncos have outscored their opponents by a combined score of 63-9 in their two games. The Broncos are still undecided on their starting quarterback for the opening week of the regular season, but does that justify them being a near double-digit favorite in this contest?
Denver’s most recent victory came against a Seattle Seahawks team that did not play any of their starters. The Broncos had a leg up in that game due to the quarterback battle between Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock—both of whom have turned in steady play under center thus far in the preseason. However, in the final week of the preseason, it appears that Bridgwater has a strong hold on the starting job, and more importantly—it looks as though the job will be decided by half time at the latest in this final game. Both of these teams are likely to play their backups quite a bit in this one, with the ultimate goal in the final week of the preseason being to make sure that their team avoids injuries to key players right before the games begin to count for real. The Rams, despite their struggles so far, have covered this spread in each of their first two games. Bettors should expect them to keep this game reasonably close as well.
Pick: Los Angeles Rams (+8.5)
Cleveland Browns (-5.5) vs Atlanta Falcons (+5.5)
The Cleveland Browns have won each of their first two preseason games and appear ready for the regular season. After suffering key injuries to kicker Cody Parkey and a few defense players, bettors should expect the Browns to sit the majority of their starters, or at most play them for a series or two. Baker Mayfield is the starting quarterback. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are the top two options in the backfield. The wide receiver group is largely settled as well. There is not much incentive for Cleveland to take this game all that seriously.
The Atlanta Falcons are underdogs in this game, in large part, due to the fact that they have lost each of their first two preseason games by 20 points. Oddsmakers seem to be expecting another big loss for the Falcons, but the motivation levels for each of these teams should be considerably different in Week 3 compared to the first two weeks. The backups for each of these teams should end up playing the majority of the snaps in this one. This is likely a recipe for a low-scoring, closely-contested affair. Atlanta has value in this spot.
Pick: Atlanta Falcons +5.5 (-110)
Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) vs New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
The Arizona Cardinals have played two competitive games this preseason—beating the Dallas Cowboys 19-16 before losing to the Kansas City Chiefs 17-10 in Week 2. In their final tune-up for the regular season, bettors should once again expect a close game, with the Cardinals having a legitimate opportunity to steal a win as a plus-money underdog.
The New Orleans Saints lost to the Baltimore Ravens on August 14 by a final score of 17-14, but rebounded for a win against the Jacksonville Jaguars this past Monday. The starting quarterback job seems to have been won by Jameis Winston, even if the Saints are reluctant to officially announce that fact at this point. New Orleans has a deep roster and will likely be competitive even if their backups see the majority of the playing time, but Head Coach Sean Payton is likely to prioritize his team’s health over getting a few last second snaps in for his regulars. New Orleans is a team with high hopes this fall. The final contest of their exhibition slate means nothing to a team that is a perennial contender to go deep into the playoffs. Unfortunately most Cardinals fans will have to wait a couple more weeks before they can place sports bets in Arizona, but they can get some skin in the game by playing NFL DFS at DraftKings this Saturday.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals ML (+170)
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