NFL Week 3 Survivor Pool Picks, Advice, and Strategy
NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Week 3 Survivor Pool strategy, previewing the safest picks of the week as well as possible upsets.
NFL Week 3 Survivor Strategy and Picks
Traditionally, survivor pools require participants to simply pick the winner of one NFL game straight up each week. The challenging part of eliminator tournaments is that you can only use a team once during the season. In 2021, this means that you will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season, so there will be weeks during which you will not be able to have an elite roster at your disposal.
Each week in this article, we discuss red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when considering options for a survivor league:
1. Intra-division games
2. Primetime games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week
Trust this team in Week 3: Los Angeles Chargers
The Los Angeles Chargers are one of the only heavy favorites in Week 3 that avoid all of our red flags. Los Angeles played last Thursday, meaning that they have an extra three days of rest heading into this matchup against an inferior opponent. The return of J.C. Jackson to the secondary unit in Week 2 made a noticeable difference for the defense, which made life extremely difficult on Patrick Mahomes throughout the game.
In Week 1, the Jacksonville Jaguars lost on the road to a Washington Commanders team that trailed by 22 points at the half in Week 2 to the Detroit Lions. Last Sunday, Jacksonville made easy work of the Indianapolis Colts, but it is worth mentioning that the Colts were without Michael Pittman and Shaquille Leonard for that contest – two of their most important players. In Week 3, Trevor Lawrence and company will face a much tougher test against a better defense. The Jaguars defense is also likely to have their hands full with a Los Angeles offense that ranks 6th in offensive success rate through two games. The Chargers are the better team on both sides of the ball in this one. If Head Coach Brandon Staley can simply get out of the way – Los Angeles should find a way to get a win at home in this spot.
Week 3 Fade: Buffalo Bills
Week 1 Fade: Indianapolis Colts (Result: Tied 20-20 against the Houston Texans)
Week 2 Fade: Green Bay Packers (Result: Packers defeated Bears 27-10)
Through two weeks, the Buffalo Bills have convinced the public that they are the best team in the NFL. Buffalo is the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl by a wide margin. Josh Allen is the betting favorite to win the league’s Most Valuable Player Award. Yet, it is debatable as to whether or not this knee-jerk reaction is warranted at this point in the campaign.
In Week 1, the Bills ostensibly dominated the Los Angeles Rams, but many pundits forget that the contest was tied 10-10 at the half. Moreover, Buffalo was 9-for-10 on third-down against a defense that had close to zero reps together during the preseason. In Week 2, Allen was extremely sharp, but he was at home against a Tennessee Titans defense that ranks 28th in EPA/play so far in 2022.
This weekend, Allen and company have their first legitimate test of the season – facing a new-look Miami Dolphins team that ranks second in offensive EPA/play so far this year. Head Coach Mike McDaniels has done an extraordinary job scheming open pass-catchers, which has made life extremely easy on Tua Tagovailoa. The strength of Buffalo’s secondary is elite play from their safeties, but much of what Miami has done well in September has been behind the line of scrimmage and in open space on quick pass attempts. The Bills are the better team in this matchup, but they are playing a divisional opponent that is very familiar with them, and are playing at a rest disadvantage. If the Bills manage to secure a win this weekend, it is unlikely to be easy.
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