NFL Week 4 Survivor Pool Picks, Advice, and Strategy (2024)
NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Week 4 NFL survivor pool strategy, previewing his favorite survivor picks of the week as well as teams to watch out for.
Week 4 NFL Survivor Revival
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NFL Week 4 Survivor Strategy and Picks
In traditional survivor pools, participants are required to select a winner of one NFL game straight-up each week. In eliminator tournaments, the rules are more challenging – allowing participants to use a team only one time throughout the course of the regular season. In 2024, this means that participants will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season. Consequently, there will be weeks when you will not be able to select an elite roster with a favorable matchup.
Unfortunately, in Week 2, I was one of the many casualties of Black Sunday. Baltimore led 16-6 midway through the 3rd quarter, but Lamar Jackson threw an interception, and the Ravens went 3 & out on their final two meaningful drives of the game, losing 26-23 as 9-point home favorites.
Still, we know that many readers, like me, participate in multiple survivor tournaments, so we will be keeping this article going forward for those fortunate enough to be alive in their pools. Each week, we will identify one trustworthy favorite and pick one 6+ point favorite that is on upset alert. Even after Baltimore’s surprising loss, our teams to trust are 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS since the beginning of 2023. Our teams on upset alert are 4-8 ATS in that same time period, with 5 of those teams losing outright as greater than a touchdown favorite.
If looking for any advice on games not mentioned in this article, don’t hesitate to reach out to @CommishFilmRoom or @nickgalaida in the RotoGrinders Discord! Our goal is to continue providing high-quality research and survivor options for the remainder of this NFL season.
Below, we have our list of red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when choosing your team:
1. Intra-division games
2. Primetime games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week
My Week 4 NFL Survivor Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
If Justin Herbert can’t suit up on Sunday, there might not be a more lopsided matchup than the Kansas City Chiefs against the Los Angeles Chargers. The X-rays on Herbert’s ankle sprain reportedly came back negative, but there still appears to be a decent chance that he misses Week 4. His replacement would likely be Taylor Heinicke.
Among 49 quarterbacks with 100+ dropbacks in 2023, Heinicke ranked 19th in EPA/play and 27th in success rate. His team went 1-4 in games in which he threw 15+ pass attempts, bringing his record to 1-6-1 in his last 8 such games. Heinicke could have an even tougher task in front of him if starting LT Rashawn Slater and starting RT Joe Alt are unable to play. Slater left last weekend’s game in the 2nd quarter after injuring his pectoral. Alt suffered a right leg injury on the team’s final offensive snap of the contest.
Making matters worse for the Chargers, star safety Derwin James has been suspended for Week 4 due to repeated violations of player health and safety rules. James played 60 snaps in Week 1, 44 snaps in Week 2, and 68 snaps in Week 3 – he represents a tremendous loss for this Los Angeles defense.
The Kansas City Chiefs haven’t played particularly well to begin 2024, but they have found a way to win each of their first 3 games, nonetheless. Patrick Mahomes and company have an opportunity to separate themselves in the AFC West division with a win this weekend. Expect them to come ready to roll in this matchup with a clear understanding of the opportunity in front of them.
Week 4 Survivor Fade: Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys entered 2024 with Super Bowl aspirations, but after 3 weeks, they look like they are going to be fighting to simply be a Wild Card team. Following a win over the Browns in Week 1, the Cowboys were run off of their home field in consecutive weeks by the Saints and Ravens. New Orleans led Dallas 35-16 at the half in Week 2, and Baltimore led Dallas at the half 21-6.
Looking at only first-half statistics, given the game scripts of the Cowboys’ first 3 games this season, Dallas’ offense ranks 19th in EPA/play and 19th in success rate. Their defense ranks 32nd in EPA/play and 15th in success rate. They have lost the time of possession battle 3 weeks in a row and have been outgained in consecutive weeks by large margins.
The New York Giants aren’t a good football team overall, but they have played reasonably well in consecutive weeks. They would have beaten the Commanders if not for losing their kicker mid-game to injury. They went on the road as big underdogs and defeated the Browns in Week 3 – a team that isn’t terribly dissimilar to the Cowboys.
The biggest challenge for New York on Thursday will be dealing with the absence of CB Adoree’ Jackson and CB Dru Phillips. That being said, Dallas hasn’t been particularly efficient throwing the football, and they rank 4th-worst in success rate on the ground. If Dallas isn’t able to exploit New York’s banged-up secondary unit, this game could be won in the trenches, and the Cowboys aren’t particularly well-equipped to beat anyone consistently at the line of scrimmage right now.
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