NFL Week 5 Survivor Pool Picks, Advice, and Strategy (2023)
NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Week 5 Survivor Pool strategy, previewing the safest picks of the week and possible upsets.
NFL Week 5 Survivor Strategy and Picks
In traditional survivor pools, participants are required to select a winner of one NFL game straight-up each week. In eliminator tournaments, the rules are more challenging – allowing participants to use a team only one time throughout the course of the regular season. In 2023, this means that participants will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season. Consequently, there will be weeks when you will not be able to select an elite roster with a favorable matchup.
Each week in this RotoGrinders article, we will identify one trustworthy favorite and pick one favorite that is on upset alert. During the first nine weeks of last season, four of our teams that were on upset alert lost outright, despite all of those teams being favored by at least one score at the time of writing.
Below, we have our list of red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when choosing your team:
1. Intra-division games
2. Primetime games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week
Trust this team in Week 5: Miami Dolphins
Week 1 Trust this team: Baltimore Ravens (Result: Won 25-9 against the Houston Texans)
Week 2 Trust this team: Dallas Cowboys (Result: Won 30-10 against the New York Jets)
Week 3 Trust this team: San Francisco 49ers (Result: Won 30-12 against the New York Giants)
Week 4 Trust this team: Los Angeles Chargers (Result: Won 24-17 against the Las Vegas Raiders)
The two top options for Week 5 NFL Survivor pools are the Miami Dolphins and Detroit Lions. Though there are strong arguments for both teams in this spot, the Dolphins are likely the better of the two options, with the Lions still having a few soft spots at home left on the schedule. Detroit should also have more playmakers available later this month, which also makes it appealing to save them with the hope that they can be used in Week 8, Week 11, or Week 15.
Miami is coming off of a 28-point loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 4, but they have a far less intimidating matchup on tap for this upcoming Sunday against the New York Giants. The Dolphins have scored an NFL-leading 150 points through their first four games, while the Giants have scored an NFL-worst 46 points in their four contests.
Buffalo managed to get pressure on Tua Tagovailoa on 27.7% of his dropbacks last weekend, which was, by far, the most pressure Tagovailoa has faced so far this fall. Against New York in Week 5, Tagovailoa and company are likely to have much more room to operate against an inexperienced New York secondary unit and a Giants’ pass rush that has struggled to generate pressure in 2023.
Nothing is ever a lay-up in the NFL, but it is extremely difficult to see a path to an upset for New York in this spot – especially playing on the road on a short week.
Week 5 Survivor Fade: Washington Commanders
Week 1 Fade: Kansas City Chiefs (Result: Lost 21-20 against the Detroit Lions)
Week 2 Fade: Buffalo Bills (Result: Won 38-10 against the Las Vegas Raiders)
Week 3 Fade: Philadelphia Eagles (Result: Won 25-11 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Week 4 Fade: Dallas Cowboys (Result: Won 38-3 against the New England Patriots)
Each of the last two weeks in this article, we have recommended fading an NFC East team that was dealing with an abundance of injuries at the time of writing. Both times, the team ended up with far fewer absences than expected by the time kickoff rolled around. In Week 5, we are once again targeting an NFC East team – the Washington Commanders.
Outside of a dominant showing in Week 2 against the Denver Broncos, the Washington pass rush has been nonexistent in 2023. According to PFF, Washington’s defense generated pressure on only 17.7% of their opponent’s dropbacks in Week 1 and Week 3, and only 23.9% of dropbacks in Week 4 against the Philadelphia Eagles. As we saw on Sunday, Justin Fields is capable of making good decisions with the football when he has time to throw from a clean pocket. The Commanders have been underwhelming defensively so far this season, ranking 26th in rushing yards allowed per play and 24th in passing yards allowed per play. Overall, Washington ranks 24th in defensive EPA/play through four games.
The Commanders are favored for a reason, but their Thursday Night Football matchup could be closer than the market is anticipating.