NFL Underdog Fantasy Picks & Predictions for Week 6
NFL Week 6 is already upon us. Time flies when you’re having fun, they say. Getting in on Underdog Fantasy pick’em squares early in the week is generally a smart rule of thumb, but there’s still value to be found and money to be made late in the week, too.
New Underdog players can use our special Underdog Fantasy promo code GRINDERS for a 100% match bonus of up to $100 on your first deposit.
You can also get access to our Underdog NFL Pick’em Tool by signing up for our Props and Pick’em package, which is currently 50% off when you click the offer below.
So, what are some of the best Underdog NFL plays for Week 6?
NFL Underdog Fantasy Picks – Week 6
- Jacobs Higher Than 21.5 Receiving Yards
- Henry Higher Than 10.5 Receiving Yards
- Mostert Higher Than 13.5 Receiving Yards
- Purdy Higher Than 203.5 Passing Yards
Josh Jacobs More Than 21.5 Receiving Yards
As of now, running back receiving yardage squares are generally some of the softer numbers in the pick’em game. At Underdog, Raiders RB Josh Jacobs is coming in at 21.5 receiving yards ahead of Vegas’ matchup against a struggling Patriots defense.
Jacobs is still getting nearly all of the work for Vegas on the ground, but he’s also been involved in the passing attack. Last year’s leading rusher has caught 23 of his 30 targets for 193 yards through the season’s first 5 games. That’s an average of nearly 40 receiving yards per game, yet his Underdog number this week is about half of that.
Jacobs’ 18.5% target share so far this season is the third-highest mark on the team behind only Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers. He’s been considerably more involved in the passing game than he was last season. One of the main differences, of course, is having Jimmy Garoppolo under center instead of Derek Carr.
Garoppolo is more of a game manager than a guy out there taking deep shots, so Jacobs’ uptick in receiving volume isn’t a huge surprise. 21.5 is just a very low number for him this week.
Derrick Henry More Than 10.5 Receiving Yards
What was that I said about running back receiving yardage totals? They’re exploitable? Something like that.
One of the knocks on Derrick Henry has always been his ineffectiveness in the passing game. Until last year, he’d never even hauled in 20 passes over the course of an entire season. In 2022, however, he “exploded” for 33 receptions on a career-best 41 targets.
So far this year, we’ve seen more of the same. Henry’s 9 catches on 11 looks aren’t eye-popping, but this guy is averaging fewer than 200 receiving yards per season for his career. Through 5 games, he’s over 100 receiving yards already. The former All-Pro has topped 10.5 receiving yards in 4 of those games.
The Titans are across the pond taking on the Ravens early on Sunday morning. Henry is averaging more than 11 yards per catch so far in ’23. So, he’s clearly capable of topping 10.5 receiving yards even if he catches just one ball from Ryan Tannehill.
This isn’t the most comfortable play, given Henry’s lack of receiving prowess over the years, but our aforementioned Pick’em Tool gives Henry a 74% chance to top that number this week.
Raheem Mostert More Than 13.5 Receiving Yards
We got the unfortunate news that big-play machine De’Von Achane landed on injured reserve earlier in the week with a knee injury. The Dolphins find themselves in a favorable spot this week, as they’re nearly 2-touchdown favorites at home over a scuffling Panthers outfit. Miami’s implied team total of 31 points is the highest of Week 6, as well.
With Achane on the shelf, it stands to reason that Raheem Mostert will take over the lion’s share of the carries this week. While he’s been overshadowed by the rookie in recent weeks, Mostert has quietly put together a monster season of his own. He’s shown big-play potential of his own thanks to his still-elite speed at the age of 31, and he’s scampering for more than 5 yards per carry to this point.
On Friday, we learned that Jeff Wilson is not expected to play after recently having his practice window opened. As a result, Miami is really down to Mostert and Salvon Ahmed in the backfield. Ahmed showed a little something in limited duty earlier in the year, but it’s fair to expect Mostert to do most of the heavy lifting out of the backfield this week.
Mostert already has 15 catches on 17 targets through 5 games, so they’re throwing it to him about 3 times per game, on average. He’s finished with exactly 13 receiving yards twice, while he’s gone well over that number in 2 other games. Given Carolina’s glaring weaknesses on defense, I’d expect Mostert and the rest of Miami’s speedsters to have little trouble finding plenty of open green grass on Sunday.
14 receiving yards isn’t much. Given the way the Dolphins’ offense has been gobbling up yardage all year long, Mostert should top this number with a likely increase in snap counts.
Brock Purdy More Than 203.5 Passing Yards
The 49ers’ offense is essentially a Pro Bowl roster these days, but we shouldn’t sniff at what Brock Purdy has been able to accomplish early in his career as an untouted prospect. The Niners still haven’t lost a regular-season game since Purdy took over amid a rash of injuries last season, and it’s not like he’s just along for the ride.
Purdy has put up impressive numbers of his own. Through 5 weeks, the ex-Iowa State Cyclone is completing a whopping 72% of his throws. He’s also averaging 9.3 yards per attempt. Only Tua Tagovailoa (9.7) has been more successful in that regard this season, and they’re the only QBs in the league north of 8.
On Sunday, the Niners are heavy 8.5-point favorites to move to 6-0 on the year when they head to Cleveland to take on the Browns. It’s not a great spot on paper, though, as Cleveland’s defense is ranked No. 1 in total DVOA. They’re first against the pass and third against the run, so they’re certainly stout.
The 49ers haven’t been bashful about letting Purdy take to the air, and I doubt the matchup will scare them out of their typical game plan. Purdy hasn’t finished a game with less than 206 passing yards all year, while he’s totaled at least 220 in each of the other 4 games.
I think we’re overthinking the tough matchup with this 203.5 square. Purdy should surpass this total comfortably enough.