NFL Week 7 Survivor Pool Picks, Advice, and Strategy
NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Week 7 Survivor Pool strategy, previewing the safest picks of the week as well as possible upsets.
NFL Week 7 Survivor Strategy and Picks
Traditionally, survivor pools require participants to simply pick the winner of one NFL game straight up each week. The challenging part of eliminator tournaments is that you can only use a team once during the season. In 2022, this means that you will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season, so there will be weeks during which you will not be able to have an elite roster at your disposal.
Each week in this article, we discuss red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when considering options for a survivor league:
1. Intra-division games
2. Primetime games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week
Trust this team in Week 7: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It is far from a bold take to argue that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have struggled so far this fall. In Week 1, Tom Brady and company defeated the Dallas Cowboys 19-3, but struggled to move the ball effectively. In Week 2, The Buccaneers ostensibly won comfortably against the New Orleans Saints, but totaled only 260 yards of offense. The following week, the Buccaneers were held out of the end zone until the closing minutes of the 4th quarter against the Green Bay Packers. After losing to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 4, the Buccaneers narrowly escaped with a victory against the Atlanta Falcons, and then suffered an embarrassing loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers last weekend. Still, the Buccaneers have a defense that is capable of giving this team an opportunity to win nearly every time they take the field – and this is especially true when facing arguably the worst offense in the entire NFL.
On Sunday, Tampa Bay will face a Carolina Panthers team that is seemingly in a tailspin to the bottom of the NFC standings. After a disappointing 1-4 start to the season, the Carolina Panthers decided to fire Head Coach Matt Rhule, defensive coordinator Phil Snow, and assistant special teams coordinator Ed Foley. On top of three coaches being fired, the Panthers have little clarity at the quarterback position. Regardless of whether Baker Mayfield, P.J. Walker, or Sam Darnold is under center, this is an offense that figures to struggle mightily against one of the better defenses in the league.
The Buccaneers have struggled offensively, but the majority of their issues have been in the running game. Entering Week7, Tampa Bay still ranks 5th in the NFL in Dropback EPA/play, and they get to face a Carolina defense this weekend that ranks 22nd in Dropback EPA/play so far in 2022. It might not be the most entertaining game to watch, but Tampa Bay should find a win to win this contest against an opponent that has significant question marks at multiple key positions, in addition to having a coaching staff that is working through a mid-season overhaul.
Week 7 Fade: Las Angeles Chargers
Week 1 Fade: Indianapolis Colts (Result: Tied 20-20 against the Houston Texans)
Week 2 Fade: Green Bay Packers (Result: Packers defeated Bears 27-10)
Week 3 Fade: Buffalo Bills (Result: Bills lost to Dolphins 21-19)
Week 4 Fade: Los Angeles Chargers (Result: Chargers defeated Texans 34-24)
Week 5 Fade: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Result: Buccaneers defeated Falcons 21-15)
Week 6 Fade: Green Bay Packers (Result: Packers lost to Jets 27-10)
In the first six weeks of the season, three of the teams that we have recommended fading in this article have failed to win – and each team was favored by at least a touchdown at the time of publishing. In Week 7, we recommend that bettors tread carefully with the Los Angeles Chargers.
Though many pundits penciled the Chargers into the Super Bowl during the preseason, this is a roster with plenty of concerns. Outside of Jamaree Salyer at left tackle and Corey Linsley at center, this offensive line is extremely weak. Wide receiver Keenan Allen is trending towards returning to the field this weekend, but larger philosophical issues remain with offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi’s dink-and-dunk proclivities in the passing attack. The Seattle Seahawks rank 30th in Dropback EPA/play in 2022, but this secondary unit could turn-in a better-than-expected performance on Sunday if the Chargers continue to avoid throwing the ball down-the-field.
Defensively, Los Angeles has been poor – ranking 21st in EPA/play. The Chargers have been especially poor against the run, allowing 5.6 yards-per-carry on the ground, which ranks 31st in the NFL. Seattle’s offensive line has been poor, but Geno Smith and the passing attack have outperformed expectations by a wide margin through six games – ranking 4th in Dropback EPA/play. Expect this to be a high-scoring affair that could end up being a one possession game. If Seattle can manage to dominate the time of possession with an effective ground attack, Los Angeles could be in for a sweat in this spot – especially considering that they will be on a short week after playing the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football.
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