NFL Week 7 Survivor Pool Picks, Advice, and Strategy (2023)
NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Week 7 Survivor Pool strategy, previewing the safest picks of the week as well as possible upsets.
NFL Week 7 Survivor Strategy and Picks
In traditional survivor pools, participants are required to select a winner of one NFL game straight-up each week. In eliminator tournaments, the rules are more challenging – allowing participants to use a team only one time throughout the course of the regular season. In 2023, this means that participants will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season. Consequently, there will be weeks when you will not be able to select an elite roster with a favorable matchup.
Each week in this RotoGrinders article, we will identify one trustworthy favorite and pick one favorite that is on upset alert. During the first nine weeks of last season, four of our teams that were on upset alert lost outright, despite all of those teams being favored by at least one score at the time of writing.
Below, we have our list of red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when choosing your team:
1. Intra-division games
2. Primetime games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week
Trust this team in Week 7: Seattle Seahawks
Week 1 Trust this team: Baltimore Ravens (Result: Won 25-9 against the Houston Texans)
Week 2 Trust this team: Dallas Cowboys (Result: Won 30-10 against the New York Jets)
Week 3 Trust this team: San Francisco 49ers (Result: Won 30-12 against the New York Giants)
Week 4 Trust this team: Los Angeles Chargers (Result: Won 24-17 against the Las Vegas Raiders)
Week 5 Trust this team: Miami Dolphins (Result: Won 31-16 against the New York Giants)
Week 6 Trust this team: Kansas City Chiefs (Result: Won 19-8 against the Denver Broncos)
To put it bluntly, the Seattle Seahawks are not the most trustworthy team we have available to use in Week 7, but this is the only remaining week in which they could possibly find themselves as a usable team in survivor pools.
To win a survivor contest, participants likely need to make it close to Thanksgiving, if not further. This requires participants to choose at least 12 different teams to win a game to stay alive. In Week 7, Seattle gets to host the Arizona Cardinals, which are tied for the worst record in the NFL so far this fall. Seattle does not have a matchup against a team currently below .500 again until Week 16, which is a road game against the Tennessee Titans. In essence, this is the only time we can realistically use the Seahawks for the next two months – which gives them a slight edge over our other remaining top option, the Buffalo Bills.
Seattle catches one of our formal red flags this week, given that this is an intra-division affair with Arizona. However, this game will not be played in prime-time, the Seahawks are at home, and there are no significant rest advantages for the Cardinals.
The most notable red flag that is not on our formal list is that Seattle’s defense generated the fourth-worst pressure rate of any team in the NFL in Week 6. It was their second time this year finishing 29th or worse, out of 32 teams, in pressure rate within a given week. Arizona quarterback Josh Dobbs has not been outstanding in any context in 2023, but he has been better from a clean pocket compared to his numbers when under pressure. According to PFF, Dobbs has a higher completion percentage, more yards per attempt, more passing touchdowns, fewer turnover-worthy-plays, and a better passer rating from a clean pocket through his first six games.
On a more positive note, Seattle is likely better than what they showed in their Week 6 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. After scoring a touchdown on their opening drive, the Seahawks did not find the end zone on any of their subsequent 10 drives, despite having five trips into the red zone. Defensively, Seattle is allowing the fewest yards per carry of any team in the league so far this year, which is going to force Dobbs to win this game through the air. Though Dobbs has been better from a clean pocket relative to being under pressure, he still ranks 27th out of 29 qualified quarterbacks in completion percentage from a clean pocket, 22nd in yards per attempt, and 23rd in passer rating. Seattle also returned starting left tackle Charles Cross to the field in Week 6 for the first time since their season opener, which figures to be a boon to the offense as the season progresses.
There are reasons to like Seattle this week, despite a few concerns. Considering the context of their remaining schedule, they are a worthwhile risk on Sunday as we look to stay alive in survivor pools.
Week 7 Survivor Fade: San Francisco 49ers
Week 1 Fade: Kansas City Chiefs (Result: Lost 21-20 against the Detroit Lions)
Week 2 Fade: Buffalo Bills (Result: Won 38-10 against the Detroit Lions)
Week 3 Fade: Philadelphia Eagles (Result: Won 25-11 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Week 4 Fade: Dallas Cowboys (Result: Won 38-3 against the New England Patriots)
Week 5 Fade: Washington Commanders (Result: Lost 40-20 against the Chicago Bears)
Week 6 Fade: Buffalo Bills (Result: Won 14-9 against the New York Giants)
To qualify as a “Survivor Fade,” a team must be at least a 6-point favorite at the time of writing. Through six weeks, two of our five ‘teams to fade’ have lost outright and three have failed to cover the spread. In Week 6, we warned the community about the 16.5-point favorite Buffalo Bills, which needed a goal-line stand on the final play of the game to escape with a narrow 14-9 victory. In Week 7, we encourage everyone to be cautious if investing too much in the San Francisco 49ers.
The Minnesota Vikings are only 2-4 this season, but all six of their games have had a one-score margin of victory, for better or worse. Following four consecutive weeks of minimal defensive pressure generated by their defense, the Vikings have finished in the top-half of the league in defensive pressure rate each of the last two weeks. According to NFL GSIS, Minnesota has climbed to 13th in sacks per pass attempt, and their run defense is allowing the 9th-fewest yards per carry in the NFL. Per David Lombardi, Minnesota ranks 15th in offensive DVOA and 13th in defensive DVOA through six games. These are obviously not elite stats, but they paint a picture of a competitive team that has the ability to slow down their opponents in certain aspects of the game.
In Week 6, the 49ers allowed 160 rushing yards to a Cleveland Browns offense that is missing their star running back Nick Chubb. San Francisco also suffered a few notable injuries in that loss. Left tackle Trent Williams is day-to-day with an ankle injury. Running back Christian McCaffrey underwent an MRI on Monday and seems unlikely to play on Monday Night Football. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel has a shoulder injury and safety George Odum is working through a thigh issue. Linebacker Dre Greenlaw is expected back at practice this week, but there is no guarantee that he is ready to play against the Vikings.
It is also worth noting that Minnesota’s defense has blitzed at the highest rate of any team in the NFL so far in 2023. Brock Purdy performed adequately against the blitz-heavy New York Giants earlier this season, but his larger body of work is a modest concern – completing only 57.9% of his pass attempts for 7.0 yards per attempt when blitzed.
San Francisco is favored for a reason in this game, but it is likely to be a competitive affair, which is something survivor participants should actively look to avoid when possible.